Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 121.022 | EURUSD 1.11122 | AUDUSD 0.78946 | NZDUSD 0.73356 | USDCAD 1.22005 | USDCHF 0.93664 | GBPUSD 1.56609 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.095 | 120.71
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1153 | 1.11005
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 134.70 | 134.45
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7928 | 0.7891
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7396 | 0.7341
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2203 | 1.2173
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04225 | 1.04065
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9378 | 0.93485
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5680 | 1.5657
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7112 | 0.70905
For today
- EUR: moving from the 1.1110 areas the market initially tested to the 1.1100 levels before Tokyo moved in and the meeting in Riga ended and unlike previous meetings seemed to be a little more conciliatory or at least not so much flinging of mud, even so no deal was reached and the two sides still seem to be poles apart and the saga is likely to continue with time running out for the Greeks and possibly the Eurozone also. The market then spent the session slowly climbing through the levels to push above the 1.1150 levels into the grey hours. Topside offers into the 1.1180-1.1200 levels with resistance lessening through the figure before the market again opens for a test through to the 1.1270-1.1300 areas. Downside bids into the 1.1080 areas remains strong and a push through the 1.1060 levels opens up the downside with light stops through that level and then possibly only light bids until the 1.0900 areas.
- GBP: Cable did very little through the session rising slightly from the opening 1.5660 levels to push to the 1.5680 level and then drifting in the range with little impetus. A strong push through the 1.5700 levels will likely see weak stops through the 1.5720 areas and then an opening for a fresh test of the 1.5800 areas with offers likely to be spread over a wide range around that level with particularly tough resistance just through the 1.5800 levels. Downside bids are light to the 1.5600 areas giving way to a fresh test lower with very little in the way of support until moving to 1.5500-1.5450 area and better support.
- JPY: Light profit taking and real money selling dominated the market again today and the USDJPY drifted off the 121.05 areas to move steadily lower pushing lightly through the 120.80 levels and towards 120.75 meeting limited bids. Downside a push through the 120.70 levels is likely to see stops appearing and the market instantly opens for a retest of the 120.00 levels and the point it broke higher earlier in the week. Possible bids from the 120.00 and into the 119.80 levels with stops likely through 119.60 and the market heading into strong bids towards the 119.20-118.60 areas. Topside offers limited until the 121.50 areas and strong offers into that level and then all the way to the 122.00 years highs and only a strong push will open up the topside potential. Monetary policy remains the same and had little impact on the market.
- AUD: Very little independent movements with the market moving around for the most part on carry trade AUDJPY continuing tight range, early movement in the Oz was helped by a small short squeeze in the NZD and the Oz kept pace rising through the 79 cent level to push above the 0.7925 levels and holding in those areas to the grey hours. Downside bids are likely to begin around the 0.7890 levels and extend to the 0.7860 before the possibility of stops appearing however, 78 cents seem to be the strong areas and a push through this level will again open up the downside for a test probably to the recent lows. Topside offers light into the 80 cent level however these offers are then likely to increase around the sentimental 0.8050/0.8100 and ultimately into the 0.8150 and strong resistance.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
JPY:
BOJ Refrains from Boosting Stimulus After Growth Picks Up
Japan’s Net Overseas Assets Rose to Record in 2014: MOF
Amari Says Next Week’s TPP Ministers Meeting Will Be Postponed
Japan’s Upper House Confirms Yukitoshi Funo for BOJ Board Seat
USD:
Fed’s Williams Says Central Bank Must Have Political Oversight
NZD:
N.Z. Consumer Confidence Falls to Six-Month Low, ANZ Index Shows
CNY/INR:
China, India May Be Largest Shareholders of AIIB: Reuters
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index Apr A 1.10% | P 0.20% | R 0.50%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate May C 108.1 | P 108.6
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment May C 113.4 | P 113.9
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations May C 103 | P 103.5
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Apr C 7.9B | P 6.7B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Apr C 0.10% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Apr C -0.20% | P -0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Apr C 0.20% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Apr C 1.70% | P 1.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Apr C 0.10% | P 0.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Apr C 1.00% | P 1.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core M/M Apr C 0.10% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core Y/Y Apr C 2.30% | P 2.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Mar C 0.30% | P 1.70%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Mar C 0.40% | P 2.00%
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Strong EURJPY buying at the beginning of the session in Tokyo saw the Euro move off the opening levels around the 1.1090 areas and pushing to above the 1.1120 levels and eventually touched the 1.1130 area as the market moved into the grey hours, morning broadsheets led with comments on Greece and that was sufficient for the market to trade back to the previous day’s lows around the 1.1080 levels before the market bounced on better than expected PMI numbers quickly moving to the 1.1130 levels again and then a steady rise through to the 1.1170 levels before struggling for a period before a final push to the topside to fail at the 1.1180 levels before moving into the NYK session and steady selling on the back of the Greek saga to take the market back towards the 1.1100 levels.
- GBP: Cable moved quietly through the Asian session moving off the opening 1.5530’s and pushing up to the 1.5560 and holding through the session close to those highs before dipping a little into the grey hours. The move into the London session saw limited initial buying with the Euro as the European numbers came in better than expected and although the EURGBP initially moved higher to push above the 0.7165 levels the UK retail sales number saw the cross drop sharply back and Cable rallied quickly to above the 1.5640 levels before pushing through light offers to trade to the 1.5700 areas, EURGBP dropped back to push through the 0.7100 levels and held around the levels to the close, with Cable holding around the 1.5660 levels to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY traded from the 121.30 levels lower through the Asian session and into London pushing gradually through to the 120.85 areas before recovering into the NYK session to the 121.25 levels in very slow trading for the JPY. The market in NYK didn’t improve and the market remained in a tight range around the 121.00 levels as both USD and JPY took a back seat to the Euro and GBP numbers with US initial claims close to consensus with nothing for the USD apart from a new high in the S&P.
- AUD: The Oz moved off the low opening and into Tokyo pushing away from below the 0.7870 as the USDJPY drifted lower, the market remained in a reasonably tight channel to test into the 0.7915 areas into the grey hours and then saw early sellers moving in before the London session dropping the market back through 0.7900 however, Euro buying and obviously USD selling sent the market back to test the topside before selling in the AUDJPY started to move in but remaining in the weekly range and looked more like end of week cuts for the retail market. Oz dipped back to the lows into the NYK session before holding the 0.7890 for a long run to the close in quiet trading.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation May A 3.60% | P 3.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 50.9 | C 50.3 | P 49.9
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 49.1 | C 49.4 | P 48.9
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Mar A -1.30% | C -0.50% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 49.3 | C 48.5 | P 48
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI May (P) A 51.6 | C 51.9 | P 51.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 51.4 | C 52.1 | P 52.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI May (P) A 52.9 | C 53.9 | P 54
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 52.3 | C 51.8 | P 52
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI May (P) A 53.3 | C 53.9 | P 54.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Mar A 18.6B | C 24.3B | P 26.4B | R 27.3B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Apr A 1.20% | C 0.40% | P -0.50% | R -0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders May A -5 | C 3 | P 1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 16) A 274K | C 270K | P 264K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey May A 6.7 | C 8 | P 7.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence May (A) A -6 | C -4.8 | P -4.6
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Apr A 5.04M | C 5.22M | P 5.19M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Apr A 0.70% | C 0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.40%
I am away for a week, so normal service will be resumed on the 1st June.
Good Luck,
Andy
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