Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.52 | EURUSD 1.1326 | AUDUSD 0.6964 | NZDUSD 0.65827 | USDCAD 1.32838 | USDCHF 0.99237 | GBPUSD 1.27242 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13342 | 1.13265

USDJPY                 108.564 | 108.442

GBPUSD               1.27272 | 1.27159

USDCHF               0.99269 | 0.99157

AUDUSD              0.69633 | 0.69471

USDCAD               1.32909 | 1.32799

NZDUSD               0.65862 | 0.65693           

EURCHF                1.12468 | 1.12371

EURGBP               0.89116 | 0.89024

EURJPY                 123.009 | 122.841

For Today

  • GBP: A quiet range through the Asian session with the market holding in a tight band around the opening 1.2720 levels through to the grey hour just dipping a little through the level, Downside bids into the 1.2650 level with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2600 level with slight weakness through there and possible stronger bids on any move to the 1.2550 level. Topside offers light through to the 1.2750 area with only minor congestion through to that level and strong stops on a move through opening up the 1.2800 level with possibly only limited sentimental resistance and opening the chance of a stronger rally.
  • JPY: Quietly ranging around the 108.50 level with very little movement or volume, the move to the grey hour saw the market dipping to sub opening levels in a long drawn out move, Topside congestion light through to the 109.00 area with stronger offers competing with weak stops on a move through the 109.20 areas with the offers increasing on any move towards the 109.60 level and likely to be stubborn on any test of the 110.00 level, downside bids light through to the 108.00 area with stronger bids likely to appear on any dip through the level and while stops may be lurking the 107.50 is likely to see increased buying interest.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.6960 level the early market held the levels however, once into the Tokyo session the market started a slow drift lower and once the consumer confidence number hit the market dropped back through into the 0.6945 level for the run into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 0.7020 area and weak stops likely on a push through the level the congestion is likely to continue with some minor stops in the mix but likely to struggle to the 0.7050 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.6900 area before stronger bids again appear on any dip through the level and increasing on any dip to the 0.6850 areas.
  • EUR: As with the rest of the pairs very little movement and volume, opening just below the 1.1330 level and moving through into the Tokyo to push north of that line but generally holding quietly through to the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.1350 level possibly some mild weakness on a push through the 1.1360 level however, stronger offers are likely to reappear on any test through the 1.1380 level and increasing into the 1.1400 level with weak stops possibly on a push through the 1.1410-20 areas to open a stronger move, downside bids light through to the 1.1250 level with congestion likely in that area with that congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1200 and while there may be some weak stops congestion is likely to continue.

 

Overnight News

CNY:

China car slump extends to year with no rebound in sight – BBG

EUR:

Germany may be up next in Trump’s target list

Italy’s top Eurosceptic could just be its next Europe Minister – BBG

GBP:

Boris Johnson on course for 140 seat majority at general election if he becomes Tory leader – Tel

NZD:

NZ May retail card spending unexpectedly declines – BBG

UAE:

Mazrouei: US output not a threat, pace of growth is issue – BBG

Mazrouei: We need all to replace barrels at reasonable pace – BBG

Mazrouei: Opec is very close to deal on extension – BBG

Mazrouei: Not a challenge to reach an agreement – BBG

EUR/GBP:

Juncker slams Tory pledges to renegotiate deal – BBG

USD/CNY:

Apple’s US IPhones can be made outside of China if needed be – BBG

OIL:

API reports US crude stockpiles rose 4.85M BBL last week – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Domestic CGPI Y/Y May A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 1.20% | R 1.30%

JPY         Machine Orders M/M Apr A 5.20% | C -0.80% | P 3.80%

AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence Jun A -0.60% | P 0.60%  

CNY        CPI Y/Y May A 2.70% | C 2.70% | P 2.50%             

CNY        PPI Y/Y May A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.90%             

12:30     USD       CPI M/M May C 0.10% | P 0.30%              

12:30     USD       CPI Y/Y May C 1.90% | P 2.00%  

12:30     USD       CPI Core M/M May C 0.20% | P 0.10%    

12:30     USD       CPI Core Y/Y May C 2.10% | P 2.10%       

14:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 6.8M

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A slow drift through the Asian session Initially pushing lightly above the 1.2690 level before slowly pushing through to range around the 1.2680 level into the grey hour, early sellers managed to make the lows of the day with a test to the 1.2670 level before London moved in pushing through to the 1.2700 level before the first rise in unemployment saw a minor dip before recovering and heading steadily through to the 1.2720 areas and peaking just short of the 1.2730 level before dropping back off through to range through to the NYK session around the figure area, NYK were early buyers and pushed continually to make the new high just above the 1.2730 level before holding quietly around the 1.2720 area to the close.
  • JPY: Minor dip from the opening and into the Tokyo session before rising quickly through to the 108.60 level from the 108.35 lows, the market then ranged around the level through to the grey hour, the London opening saw the start of a slow rise through to the 108.80 level and the high of the day before heading into the NYK session reversing all the gains and running back to the opening levels to finish the day around the 108.50 areas.
  • AUD: Choppy but limited range for the Oz with the market trading around the 0.6955 level for much of the day, moving into the Tokyo session around the 108.60 level the market chopped around the level through to the run to the grey hour with the market dipping into make the lows around the 0.6945 level and recovering  back to the 0.6955 level for the London session, the market did revisit the lows on the move into the NYK session however, it was a quick stab and over with quickly for the market again to settle down around that 55 level and not until the end of London did it start to rise to test the highs and then run to the close unchanged.
  • EUR: Euro’s was very limited with the market holding around the 1.1315 opening level through the Asian session and lightly pushing through the 1.1320 level into the grey hour, the move into the London opening saw the market make early highs above the 1.1330 level before drifting back to range again around the opening levels, late London saw the market start a steady grind to the mid 1.1330’s for the high of the day before drifting back to sub 1.1320 for the finish.

 

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Manufacturing Activity Q1 A 1.0% | P -0.50%

JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y May A 2.7% | C 2.60% | P 2.60%

AUD       NAB Business Conditions May A 1 | P 3

AUD       NAB Business Confidence May A 7 | P 0

GBP       Jobless Claims Change May A 23.2K | C 12.3K | P 24.7K | R 19.1K

GBP       Claimant Count Rate May A 3.10% | P 3.00%       

GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M Y/Y Apr A 3.10% | C 3.00% | P 3.20% | R 3.30%

GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M Y/Y Apr A 3.40% | C 3.10% | P 3.30%          

GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Apr A 3.80% | C 3.80% | P 3.80%              

EUR        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jun A -3.3 | C 2.5 | P 5.3     

USD       NFIB Small Business Optimism May A 105 | C 101.9 | P 103.5       

USD       PPI M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%          

USD       PPI Y/Y May A 1.80% | C 1.90% | P 2.20%             

USD       PPI Core M/M May A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%

USD       PPI Core Y/Y May A 2.30% | C 2.30% | P 2.40%   

 

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