Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.979 | EURUSD 1.10662 | AUDUSD 0.68844 | NZDUSD 0.6365 | USDCAD 1.31824 | USDCHF 0.99283 | GBPUSD 1.28564 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10729 | 1.10549

USDJPY                108.971 | 108.649

GBPUSD              1.28603 | 1.28375

USDCHF               0.99302 | 0.99212

AUDUSD             0.68852 | 0.68619

USDCAD              1.31970 | 1.31824

NZDUSD              0.63692 | 0.63472

EURCHF               1.09890 | 1.09755

EURGBP              0.86180 | 0.86076

EURJPY                120.603 | 120.147

For Today

  • GBP: A slow drift lower from the high opening to slowly drift through to the 1.2840 areas and holding around the level through into the grey hour on slow trading, Topside congestion likely to continue with stronger offers through to the 1.3000 area and likely stops on a move through opening the chance of minor gains through to the 1.3050 area before running into stronger congestion and likely slowing the market until 1.3100 is broken with possibility of strong offers around the area. Downside bids likely to be weak through the 1.2900 level with weak stops likely on a move through the level however, any dip is likely to see minor congestion around the 1.2850 level before the market stiffens and becomes more supportive on any move through to the 1.2800 area with possible stops on a move through the 1.2780 areas.
  • JPY: Opening around the 108.95 areas and a slow drift through the session through to the 108.70 level with a light push towards the 108.65 lows for the session before holding around the 108.70 area through to the grey hours, Topside offers remain into the 109.00 level with limited resistance to a slight move through the level with increased offers likely to appear in the 109.20-40 areas before weak stops appear and opens the market to increasing congestion on any push through the 109.50 levels and increasing further on any push to the 110.00 level. Downside bids light back through the 108.00 areas with weak stops likely on a dip through the 107.80 area and congestion likely through the 107.50 level and continuing into growing bids in the 107.00 areas.
  • AUD: As with the USDJPY a slow drift lower from the opening and possibly a little bit of a drag by the slightly stronger JPY caused the drift, opening around the 0.6885 area the market moved steadily through to the midsession point testing the low 0.6860’s before finding some support and recovering only slightly for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids light through the 68 cents level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6780 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
  • EUR: A similar pattern with the Euro holding around the 1.1070 levels through into Tokyo before drifting lower through the Tokyo session to test through into the mid 1.1050’s before holding around that level through into the grey hours in light trading, Topside offers increasing on a push through to the 1.1170 area and into the 1.1200 area with congestion likely through the level to cancel out any weak stops and opening up a further steady climb into the 1.1240 areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.1080 level where weak stops are likely to appear however, once cleared 1.1060 level sees  minor congestion through to 1.1040 before the market starts to become more supportive on any dips towards the 1.1000 levels.

 

 

Overnight News

USD/CNY:

Trump-Xi meeting may be in December

OIL:

Biggest OPEC+ Producers aren’t pushing for deep oil cuts – BBG

AUD:

Australia Sep Exports rose 3% from month earlier – BBG

Australia Sep Imports rose 3% from month earlier – BBG

EUR:

Slowdown in Global Car Sales weighs on EU’s Eastern Economies – BBG

CNY:

Baby Formula Billionaire Emerges as China plans to curb imports – BBG

USD:

America’s worst Housing Market is desperate to find more supply – BBG

US retirement fund would face China Investment ban under bill – BBG

EUR/GBP:

EU says it did not amend Theresa May’s Brexit deal for Boris Johnson and only Clarified it – Independent

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       AiG Performance of Construction Index (OCT) A 43.9 | P 42.6

AUD       Trade Balance (SEP) A A$7180m | C A$5050m | P A$6617m

0700       CHF        UBS Real Estate Bubble Index P 0.78

0700       EUR        German IP n.s.a. and w.d.a. YoY (SEP) C -4.3% | P 4.0%

0830       EUR        Markit Germany Construction PMI (OCT) P 50.1

0900       EUR        ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin

0930       GBP       Office for Budget Responsibility publishes updated forecasts

1000       EUR        EU Commission Economic Forecasts

1200       GBP       BoE Asset Purchase Target (NOV) C 435b | P 435b

1200       GBP       BoE Bank rate (NOV 7) C 0.75% | P 0.75%

1200       GBP        Inflation Report

1200       MXN      CPI YoY (OCT) C 3.0% | P 3.0%

1230       GBP        BoE’s Carney speaks at press conference in London

1330       USD       Continuing Claims (OCT 26) C 1660k | P 1690k

1330       USD       Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 2) C 215k | P 218k

2000       USD       Consumer Credit (SEP) C 15.000b | P 17.901b

2330       JPY         Labour Cash Earnings YoY (SEP) C 0.1% | P -0.2%

2330       JPY         Overall Household spending YoY (SEP) C 7.1% | P 1.0%

2330       JPY         Real Cash Earnings YoY (SEP) C -0.3 | P -0.6%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.2885 area the market made a single dip to the 1.2870 level on the Tokyo opening before ranging around the 1.2880 level through to the London session, a tic higher in early London saw the market rise through to the 1.2895 areas before returning again to the 1.2880 level and ranging around the level into the NYK session before another run higher extending just beyond the previous high but still unable to push through to the 1.2900 level before again drifting off and continuing through to the 1.2870 level and eventually pushing through the lows to continue the steady decline to test just through the 1.2850 areas touching through the 1.2845 level before slowly recovering to the 1.2850 and holding the area to the close.
  • JPY: Holding the opening 109.15 levels through into the Tokyo saw early sellers appear and the market drift through to the 109.00 levels and held through to pre-London before dipping through the figure level to test towards the 108.90 areas before returning and holding through to the end of London before rising and spiking back towards the opening level and then dropping off quickly through to make the low just above the 108.80 level and struggling through to the close to test the figure level again.
  • AUD: A limited range through to late in the day, with the market opening just short of the 69 cents and drifting through to the 0.6890 level on the move into the Tokyo session, the market steadily recovered making light tests through the 69 cents levels before dropping off on early London selling extending the lows to the 0.6885 area before the official opening and a slow recovery this time to push towards the 0.6910 area before holding quietly around the 69 cents are through early NYK then slipping slowly to hold the 0.6890 for several hours, late selling saw the market dip through to the 0.6870 areas before recovering a little to above the 0.6880 level into the close.
  • EUR: Quite from the opening then dipping on the move into Tokyo to test through to the upper 1.1060’s before rising slowly through to the 1.1080 level, the market ranged quietly through to the London session and saw a small rally on the move through the Eurozone retail sales number to test lightly above the 1.1090 level holding for a couple of hours but unable to make any more progress and slipping back to the 1.1080 areas for the move into the NYK session, another attempt to push higher again failed above the 1.1090 level and the market then went into a steady decline through to the 1.1070 areas again testing the lows and basing along the 1.1065 area through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

EUR        German Factory Orders n.s.a. YoY (SEP) A -5.4% | C -6.3% | P -6.7%

EUR        ECB Vice President Guindos speaks in Frankfurt

EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales YoY (SEP) A 3.1% | C 2.4% | P 2.7%

USD       MBA Mortgage applications A -0.1% | P 0.6%

USD       DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 1) A 7929k | C 2000k | P 5702k

 

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