LMAX Digital volumes were healthy on Wednesday. Total notional volume came in at $231 million, 5% above 30-day average volume.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $119 million, 1% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $47 million, 37% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $6,011 and average position size for ether at $1,226.

Volatility is consolidating after a sharp rise out from extremely subdued readings and multi-month lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,207 and $92 respectively.

The crypto market continues to hold up well into dips. We continue to see the latest price action as necessary consolidation following an exceptionally strong move higher.

Rather than evidence that the market is preparing for a renewed period of weakness, we believe this is the type of digestion that should ultimately help set the stage for another healthy move higher.

Indeed, the ability of Bitcoin and Ethereum to absorb profit-taking without giving back a meaningful portion of the recent advance is encouraging. Technical studies had become stretched following the surge and were in need of some unwinding.

Some sideways trade and corrective price action are therefore exactly what we would expect to see if the market is preparing for another leg higher. So far, there has been little in the price action to suggest the broader recovery is being compromised.

The fundamental backdrop also remains supportive. Institutional demand continues to be an important pillar, with roughly $3.5 billion of ETF inflows during August, while flows have remained relatively resilient into September.

After $236.5 million of outflows on September 1, Bitcoin ETFs returned to approximately $101.1 million of inflows on September 2, suggesting underlying demand remains intact despite the consolidation.

The macro environment could also become increasingly constructive. Markets have moved aggressively to price a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, with the probability of another rate hike rising substantially.

We believe positioning may now have become too aggressive in that direction. This leaves room for softer US employment data to pull Treasury yields and the Dollar lower and provide another potential tailwind for crypto.

Overall, we continue to believe the evidence points to a major cycle low having already been established, with the latest consolidation doing more to strengthen than undermine the broader recovery.

The combination of improving technical structure, resilient institutional demand, a supportive regulatory backdrop and the potential for Fed expectations to swing back in a more favorable direction keeps us constructive and looking for the next meaningful move higher.

LMAX Digital volumes held up well overall on Tuesday. Total notional volume came in at $261 million, 19% above 30-day average volume.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $176 million, 51% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $33 million, 3% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,958 and average position size for ether at $1,273.

Volatility is consolidating after a sharp rise out from extremely subdued readings and multi-month lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,272 and $93 respectively.

The key takeaway is that crypto continues to show its relative resilience against an increasingly difficult global backdrop. Bitcoin has eased below $80,000 toward the upper-$77,000 area, but the pullback remains contained relative to the selloff across equities and other risk-sensitive markets.

Dips continue to attract demand, reinforcing our view that the market is consolidating after its recent surge and allowing overbought technical readings to unwind.

The immediate macro headwind is the renewed escalation between the US and Iran. The resulting surge in oil prices and Treasury yields has revived inflation concerns, strengthened the dollar and increased expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.

Crypto is not immune to these pressures, but Bitcoin’s relatively modest decline compared with the weakness in technology stocks is encouraging and suggests the market is trading on more than conventional risk appetite alone.

Ethereum has followed Bitcoin lower, although it remains well above its levels from before the late-August rally.

ETH’s recent relative strength is an important sign that participation is extending beyond Bitcoin, but the market will need to retain that broader participation if the next leg higher is to prove sustainable.

The structural backdrop also continues to improve. A group of 21 major financial institutions, including Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, has committed to establishing a company supporting the launch of a dollar-denominated stablecoin in 2027.

Meanwhile, the latest G20 finance ministers and central-bank governors’ statement formally recognized digital assets as a key policy priority, providing another indication that the asset class is becoming embedded within the mainstream financial system.

Russia’s new regulated framework for cryptocurrency trading has also taken effect, following President Putin’s approval of legislation covering exchanges, brokers, custodians and investor access.

Overall, the market’s resilience alongside these institutional and regulatory developments strengthens the case for crypto as an increasingly credible portfolio diversifier, even if it remains too early to claim a complete decoupling from traditional risk assets.

LMAX Digital volumes were impressive to start the week. Total notional volume came in at $310 million, 45% above 30-day average volume.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $186 million, 67% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $49 million, 45% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,910 and average position size for ether at $1,280.

Volatility is consolidating after a sharp rise out from extremely subdued readings and multi-month lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,235 and $92 respectively.

Bitcoin is consolidating after gaining 25% in an exceptionally strong August, marking its best August since 2017 and strongest monthly performance overall since November 2024.

The resilience is notable given the increasingly difficult cross-asset backdrop, with higher bond yields, a firmer dollar and renewed geopolitical stress all creating headwinds for risk assets.

The latest pressure has come from the escalation between the United States and Iran, which has pushed Brent crude above $90 and revived concerns about the inflationary consequences of disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Combined with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message, the oil shock has lifted Treasury yields and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates in September. This is limiting immediate upside for Bitcoin, even as dips continue to attract demand.

From a technical perspective, the recent consolidation remains constructive. Severely overbought daily readings are unwinding primarily through time rather than a major correction in price, suggesting the underlying trend remains strong. Bitcoin is holding relatively close to its recent highs while creating additional room for another push higher once the market has fully absorbed August’s advance.

The key upside area remains $80,000 through the May high near $82,820. A sustained break above that zone would confirm a more significant bullish formation and could open an acceleration towards, and ultimately back above, $100,000. Until then, thinner spot activity and some evidence of profit-taking argue for continued consolidation rather than an uninterrupted advance.

Ether is holding around $2,500 and continues to display improved relative strength following its strong August performance. ETH’s participation is an encouraging sign that the recovery is broadening beyond Bitcoin, although both assets will remain sensitive to oil prices, Treasury yields and the dollar.

This week’s US ISM and labor-market data will therefore be important in determining whether tighter policy expectations persist or whether improving liquidity conditions can reassert themselves as the dominant crypto driver.

Total notional volume from last Monday to Friday came in at $1.84 billion, on pace with the previous week.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $974 million, 5% lower than the previous week. Ether volume came in at $270 million, 1% higher than the week earlier.

Total notional volume over the past 30 days comes in at $6.2 billion.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,829 and average position size for ether at $1,343.

Volatility is consolidating after a sharp rise out from extremely subdued readings and multi-month lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,249 and $93 respectively.

The tone across digital asset markets improved dramatically over the course of August, with crypto delivering its strongest and most convincing advance of the year. Bitcoin surged back above $80,000 for the first time since May, while Ethereum and a broad range of digital assets also recorded powerful gains.

The scale of the move was particularly notable given the exceptionally difficult first half of the year and the persistent caution that had defined investor behavior coming into the month. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum remain below the record highs reached in late 2025, August represented an important change in market character, with capital returning to the asset class and confidence improving considerably across the ecosystem.

Ethereum’s performance added further credibility to the recovery. ETH outperformed Bitcoin during the month, extending the improvement in relative strength that first became visible in July and encouraging broader participation across digital assets. This matters because sustained crypto recoveries have historically required more than strength in Bitcoin alone.

They have typically been accompanied by a willingness among investors to move further out the risk spectrum as confidence improves. The simultaneous strength in Bitcoin, Ethereum and other leading digital assets suggests August was not simply a defensive rotation into Bitcoin, but a broader reassessment of the opportunity across crypto.

The rally was supported by an unusually powerful combination of crypto-specific and macroeconomic catalysts. Renewed optimism surrounding US market-structure legislation helped revive expectations for greater regulatory clarity, while institutional demand and exchange-traded fund flows showed signs of strengthening as confidence returned.

The recovery itself also helped improve sentiment, attracting sidelined capital back into the market and reinforcing the view that much of the speculative excess and forced selling from earlier in the year had already been absorbed. Together, these developments produced a far healthier demand backdrop than the market had experienced during the first half of 2026.

The regulatory and institutional backdrop continues to evolve in a constructive direction. Progress toward a clearer US framework for digital assets remains important, but the structural investment case no longer depends on the timing or outcome of any single piece of legislation. Traditional financial institutions continue to expand their digital asset capabilities, tokenization initiatives are accelerating, and the infrastructure supporting institutional participation continues to mature.

August’s rally demonstrated how quickly capital can return when improving fundamentals are accompanied by greater policy confidence. Even if the legislative process takes longer than markets would prefer, the broader direction of travel remains supportive of increased participation and adoption.

Macro conditions also played an important role during the month. The US Treasury’s decision to increase purchases of longer-dated government debt helped ease pressure on yields, weighed on the dollar and reignited concerns surrounding currency depreciation and the sustainability of rising public debt. This provided a favorable environment for scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold, reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal not only as a high-growth technology asset but also as a potential hedge against monetary and fiscal dilution.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole address subsequently drove the dollar and short-dated Treasury yields higher and triggered a late-month pullback across crypto. However, the resilience of the broader monthly advance suggests digital assets may no longer require an entirely benign macro environment to attract meaningful demand.

Our broader investment thesis has become considerably more constructive following the developments of the past month. August provided the clearest evidence this year that confidence is returning to digital assets, supported by renewed institutional demand, broader market participation, improving regulatory prospects and a growing appreciation of Bitcoin’s role in an environment of rising debt and currency-depreciation concerns.

Near-term volatility should still be expected, particularly with the Federal Reserve outlook unresolved and markets reassessing the possibility of additional tightening. Nevertheless, we believe the balance of risks has shifted meaningfully in favor of the asset class. As has often been the case in previous cycles, by the time the broader market becomes fully convinced that conditions have changed, a meaningful portion of the recovery has already taken place.

LMAX Digital volumes cooled off on Wednesday after an impressive run. Total notional volume came in at $201 million, 1% below 30-day average volume.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $71 million, 32% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $32 million, on pace with 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,475 and average position size for ether at $1,365.

Volatility has risen sharply following the market’s breakout from an extended period of subdued trading. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,167 and $92 respectively.

Bitcoin remains confined to a tight consolidation following the recent surge, allowing highly extended daily overbought readings to cool.

This sideways trade could persist for a few more sessions, but setbacks should now be limited, with the May high just below $83,000 representing the next major resistance point.

The broader backdrop remains constructive, supported by renewed institutional demand and a meaningful return of inflows into US-listed spot bitcoin and Ether ETFs.

Despite the rebound, bitcoin remains down around 10% year-to-date and ETH around 16%, leaving both assets with considerable room to recover before returning to positive territory for the year.

Wednesday’s US data did little to disturb the market, with the PCE readings broadly consistent with expectations.

The slightly hotter headline number was offset by lower oil prices as markets positioned for a possible de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, reducing concern about another energy-driven inflation shock.

Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, though the prospect of a major policy signal appears limited given his preference for data dependence and minimal forward guidance.

For crypto, the more important macro transmission mechanism may now be the US Dollar and yield differentials, with further dollar weakness providing an increasingly supportive backdrop for bitcoin and ETH.

Indeed, crypto’s recent strength alongside a less decisive performance from equities suggests the market may be beginning to trade on more than conventional risk appetite alone.

Bitcoin’s monetary scarcity and diversification qualities appear to be attracting renewed attention, particularly amid concerns surrounding US fiscal policy and currency debasement, reinforcing the case for further upside once the current consolidation has run its course.

LMAX Digital volumes were impressive on Tuesday. Total notional volume came in at $425 million, 110% above 30-day average volume.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $253 million, 140% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $51 million, 58% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,442 and average position size for ether at $1,395.

Volatility has risen sharply following the market’s breakout from an extended period of subdued trading. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,248 and $94 respectively.

Bitcoin is consolidating around $79,000 after briefly breaking above $80,000 for the first time since May, with some profit-taking emerging following a gain of more than 20% over the past week. Ether has also eased back below $2,500 after an impressive advance of its own, although the broader structure continues to look constructive.

Technical studies are understandably tracking in overbought territory on the daily charts. However, severely overbought conditions do not always unwind through a major reversal, and we believe there is a reasonable possibility that the market simply consolidates sideways at elevated levels, with dips well supported ahead of another push higher.

More importantly, the latest rally strengthens the argument that Bitcoin has established a major cycle low following several months of weakness. A clear break above the May high around $82,820 would provide the next important confirmation, opening the door for a move back through $100,000 and eventually toward the 2025 record high.

The fundamental backdrop has also become more supportive. Lower Treasury yields, a softer US dollar, expanded Treasury bond buybacks, renewed demand for spot crypto ETFs and progress toward clearer US digital-asset regulation have combined to revive institutional interest. Easing US-Iran tensions and the associated decline in oil prices are also reducing inflation concerns and supporting risk appetite, although the geopolitical situation remains fluid.

For now, some sideways price action is entirely understandable given the amount of positioning taking place ahead of US PCE inflation, updated GDP figures, Nvidia earnings and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole address. These events could generate near-term volatility, but if the macro backdrop remains supportive, the latest advance may represent the beginning of a stronger period in which crypto recovers its remaining year-to-date losses and begins making meaningful progress back toward record highs.

LMAX Digital volumes got off to a strong start this week. Total notional volume for Monday came in at $398 million, 107% above 30-day average volume.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $172 million, 75% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $70 million, 125% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,357 and average position size for ether at $1,431.

Volatility has risen sharply following the market’s breakout from an extended period of subdued trading. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,286 and $94 respectively.

Bitcoin has extended its impressive resurgence above $80,000 for the first time since May, driven by lower Treasury yields, an improving liquidity backdrop, renewed institutional demand and a decisive technical breakout.

Treasury plans to expand long-dated bond buybacks have been particularly supportive, reinforcing the perception of a policy backstop for liquidity-sensitive assets.

Crypto-specific flows have strengthened the move, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting nearly $2 billion over five consecutive inflow sessions following an extended period of weaker demand.

The recovery has also been amplified by short covering and improving momentum, with Bitcoin now up roughly 27% over the past month.

Regulatory optimism has provided another important tailwind after President Trump renewed pressure on Congress to advance the CLARITY Act.

While the legislation still faces political obstacles, the combination of White House support and continued SEC and CFTC rulemaking has encouraged expectations that a clearer US market structure framework is finally moving closer.

Ether has participated strongly and recently traded around $2,500, supported by renewed spot ETF inflows, short covering and improving confidence across the broader digital-asset complex.

ETH has outperformed Bitcoin during parts of the rebound, a constructive signal for market breadth, although the speed of the advance leaves both assets vulnerable to short-term consolidation.

The resurgence is particularly notable against a backdrop of growing concern over currency depreciation and the long-term purchasing power of fiat money, with the recent broad-based weakness in the US dollar reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal as a scarce alternative asset.

Bitcoin’s ability to recover repeatedly from extreme setbacks and re-emerge with the potential to reach fresh record highs is also strengthening its credibility among traditional investors, gradually turning skepticism into belief in its role as a long-term store of value.

From our point of view, the more important Bitcoin level is the May 2026 high at $82,820.

A clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major move through $100,000 and, ultimately, the 2025 record high.

In the near term, US PCE inflation and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole address represent the main macro risks.

Escalating pressure on Iran and volatility in oil and Treasury yields could also challenge the improving risk backdrop.

Total notional volume from last Monday to Friday came in at $1.84 billion, 154% higher than the previous week.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $1 billion, 155% higher than the previous week. Ether volume came in at $267 million, 240% higher than the week earlier.

Total notional volume over the past 30 days comes in at $5.4 billion.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,261 and average position size for ether at $1,408.

Volatility has risen sharply following the market’s breakout from an extended period of subdued trading. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,109 and $92 respectively.

Bitcoin’s surge through $67,300 and then $70,000, followed by an extension toward $78,000, provides the clearest evidence yet that a meaningful cycle low is in place. Ether has confirmed the improvement by breaking above $2,000 and $2,470, reaching as high as $2,540 before consolidating.

These moves have materially improved the technical outlook and opened the door toward the next major upside extensions at $83,000 for Bitcoin and $3,500 for ETH.

The rally has been driven by a powerful combination of expanded US Treasury buybacks, falling long-dated yields, dollar weakness, renewed spot-ETF demand and the liquidation of heavily crowded short positions. Treasury’s intervention has been interpreted as a signal that policymakers are prepared to support bond-market liquidity, reviving demand for scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

More than $2.7 billion of bearish crypto positions were reportedly liquidated during the initial surge, adding considerable momentum to the breakout.

Regulatory expectations have provided another important catalyst. President Trump has renewed pressure on Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, while the SEC is pursuing a crypto-specific regulatory framework that draws heavily from the legislation.

This creates two potentially constructive routes forward: durable market-structure legislation through Congress or a faster, crypto-friendly framework delivered through SEC rulemaking.

Perhaps the most impressive development has been crypto’s emerging decoupling from equities. Bitcoin and ETH have continued higher even as Asian shares weakened and US equity futures softened, suggesting digital assets are increasingly capable of attracting capital on their own monetary, regulatory and adoption merits.

That independence was painful when equities were rallying and crypto was stagnant, but it is now working decisively in digital-asset investors’ favor.

From a short-term perspective, the daily charts are stretched and some consolidation after such an explosive advance would be entirely healthy. Geopolitical risks surrounding Iran, elevated oil prices, stubbornly high Treasury yields and this week’s US PCE and Jackson Hole events could still generate volatility.

Nevertheless, setbacks should be exceptionally well supported. Bitcoin and ETH remain substantially lower year to date and far below their previous records, leaving ample room for a recovery that increasingly looks as though it is only getting started.

LMAX Digital volumes were impressive on Wednesday, putting in their strongest performance since early July.

Total notional volume for came in at $349 million, 130% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $200 million, 145% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $55 million, 135% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $7,806 and average position size for ether at $1,900.

Volatility has finally picked up, showing signs of wanting to break out from a prolonged period of subdued trade. Daily ranges in bitcoin and ether have risen to $1,555 and $72 respectively.

Bitcoin has broken decisively higher after an extended period of range contraction, with the move through $67,300 marking an important shift in the market structure.

The breakout opens the door to a potentially much larger topside move, with $83,000 emerging as the next major target if Bitcoin can consolidate above the former resistance zone.

The initial catalyst was the US Treasury’s decision to at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks. The announcement eased stress in the Treasury market, pulled the 10-year yield back towards 4.65% and weakened the dollar towards a three-month low.

That combination improved global liquidity expectations and provided a powerful tailwind for Bitcoin and other higher-duration assets.

The rally was then amplified by positioning. Around $1.4 billion of bearish crypto positions were reportedly liquidated within several hours, forcing short sellers to buy back into a rapidly rising market.

The break above the recent range also attracted momentum demand, while optimism surrounding President Trump’s meeting with crypto executives reinforced expectations that market-structure legislation could advance when Congress returns in September.

Ether is leading the higher-beta portion of the move as capital rotates into the more depressed major asset. Having reclaimed $2,000, the next significant test comes at $2,470.

A sustained break above that level should accelerate momentum and open a path towards $3,500, while continued improvement in ETHBTC would provide stronger confirmation that the advance is broadening into DeFi and the wider digital-asset market.

The near-term backdrop is therefore increasingly constructive. For now, falling yields, dollar weakness, improving regulatory expectations and major technical breakouts suggest crypto may be entering the early stages of a substantially larger move higher.

LMAX Digital volumes have been lighter amid tight trading conditions and seasonally thin summer activity. Total notional volume for Tuesday came in at $131 million, 11% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $72 million, 10% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $11 million, 52% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $4,796 and average position size for ether at $1,688.

Volatility remains subdued, with average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether falling to $1,216 and $44 respectively, their lowest levels since late 2023.

Crypto markets remain locked in exceptionally tight ranges, with bitcoin and ether continuing to consolidate amid the lowest average daily volatility since late 2023.

Price action still feels directionless on the surface, but the tone underneath is becoming more constructive as selling pressure eases and demand gradually rebuilds following months of weakness.

Bitcoin remains within reach of the key $67,300 resistance level, while ether continues to challenge the psychologically and technically important $2,000 area.

A sustained break through these levels would strengthen the case that the cycle low is in place and could release pent-up demand from investors who have remained cautious after the prolonged drawdown.

The market has also shown encouraging signs of decoupling from equities and traditional risk correlations. Crypto has recently held up better during periods of equity weakness, while outperforming when broader risk sentiment improves.

If sustained, this would reinforce the case for bitcoin and other crypto assets as a distinct and potentially uncorrelated allocation rather than simply a higher-beta expression of the technology trade.

Policy developments provide another potential catalyst. The White House is expected to host crypto and prediction-market executives today, keeping attention on efforts to advance US regulatory clarity when lawmakers return in September.

This follows the SEC’s proposed crypto framework, including tailored exemptions and a potential safe harbor, adding to the increasingly constructive regulatory backdrop.

The July FOMC minutes are also due later today and could influence crypto through the US dollar and Treasury yields. Any less-hawkish signal would likely reinforce dollar weakness and provide additional support for bitcoin and ether, while much of the adverse policy risk already appears reflected in prices.

Meanwhile, one leading quantitative research firm reports that bitcoin spot demand is turning positive for the first time since February, a shift that has historically been followed by a median 18.1% gain over 60 days with a 78% success rate, adding weight to the constructive outlook heading toward September and year-end.