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As we head into Friday, there are two important takeaways from developments this week. The first is that higher for longer Fed policy is something investors need to consider more seriously. The second is that while the Fed has been talking about a solid economy and higher for longer, we haven’t exactly been getting the same messages out from the other major central banks. read report
No surprise to see the market reaction in the aftermath of Wednesday’s Fed decision. We had warned the balance of risk was tilted this way in our special report and indeed this is how things have played out. read report
Activity has slowed down quite a bit into today, with the market not wanting to make any fresh decisions with respect to direction until getting more clarity from the Fed. read report
Things have been mostly quiet as the new week gets going. What we have seen has been mild selling of the US Dollar and consolidation in US equities. A lot of this can be attributed to market positioning into a heavier calendar from tomorrow through the remainder of the week. read report
Last week, we warned the US equity market could be on the verge of rolling over in the aftermath of a run of US inflation data that pointed to less investor friendly, higher for longer Fed monetary policy. The US Dollar had reacted accordingly, pushing higher across the board, all while stocks managed to initially shrug off the data. read report
Thursday’s US producer prices came in hot, while retail sales were solid and well above forecast. What this means is that the Fed is still in position to be tightening, which on net, should translate to more US Dollar demand. read report
Wednesday’s highly anticipated US CPI release proved to be somewhat of a non-event for the market. This was reconciled by the fact that the data came in mixed with headline inflation rising for the first time in six months, while core inflation sunk to its lowest since September 2021. read report
Attempts to cool the US Dollar earlier this week have fallen short, with the Buck back in the driver’s seat heading into some important US inflation data later today. We also get a healthy round of economic data out of the UK. Stocks are looking more cautious and oil has pushed to another yearly high. read report
Both China and Japan were out in their own ways stepping up their respective defenses of their currencies, with the moves inspiring broad based US Dollar outflows and renewed risk appetite in Monday trade. read report
We’re seeing a reversal of flow as the week gets going. Most notably, the US Dollar has sold off hard across the board. It’s possible, a lot of this has to do with the sharp turnaround in the Yen. read report
