6:30am: Overnight Andy’s daily FX ramble

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close Asian open

                NY closing           Bid    Offer
USD/JPY      82.44              82.35  82.45
EUR/USD      1.3268          1.3266  1.3273
EUR/JPY      109.4              109.25  109.43
AUD/USD      1.0478         1.0445  1.047
NZD/USD      0.8187          0.8155  0.819
USD/CAD      0.9977          0.9975  0.9999
EUR/CHF      1.205             1.2048  1.2055
USD/CHF      0.9081          0.9075  0.9094
GBP/USD      1.5868          1.586  1.5879
EUR/GBP      0.8362          0.835  0.8364

Weekend news

JPY: Shirakawa Says Central Banks Must Consider Risks of Low Rates
JPY: Shirakawa Says Focus on Prices May Cause Swings in Economy
USD: Fed Purchases of More Bonds Opposed by Two Regional Presidents
USD: Obama Emphasizes There Is a Window to Resolve Iran Issues
CNY: PBOC Yi Says China Fx Reserves ‘Very Adequate,’ Caixin Reports
CNY: China Banks Said to Underestimate Local Government Loan Risk
CNY: China Property Prices Won’t Rebound This Year, Says Beijing News
USD/KRW: Obama Visits Border With North Korea Ahead of Nuclear Summit
KRW: S. Korea Welcomes Obama Nominating Kim as World Bank President
KRW: North Korea Has Moved Missile Body to Launch Base, Fuji TV Says
KRW: Kim Jong Un Ends 100 Days of Mourning in North Korea for Father
KRW/INR: S. Korea, India Set Target for $40B in Bilateral Trade by 2015
EUR: Merkel, Schaeuble to Back Combined Rescue Funds, Spiegel Says
EUR: Merkel’s CDU Faces Voters in State Ballot Too Close to Call
EUR: Euro Leaders Can’t Leave Crisis Management to ECB, Katainen Says
EUR: Europe Must Use Calm on Markets to Do Reforms, Asmussen Says
AUD: Australia’s Return to Surplus Critical, Swan Says Before Speech
AUD: Australia’s Ruling Labour Loses Queensland in Election Landslide
JPY/CAD: Japan and Canada Agree to Commence Free-Trade Negotiations
EUR: Rehn tells Spain. “Stick to deficit targets” FT

Harry Hindsight

A quiet day overall with French business confidence showing a surprising rise for March of 96 from a previous of 92, this kept risk in focus and saw the Euro rally during the early part of London. Having peaked above 1.3280 it failed to capitalise on the momentum and started to trade off with 80/20 players kicking in, NYK session saw profit taking and bottom pickers around the 20 level pushing the market back to the 80 level where the market then stalled and went into a 60/70 range for the remaining 5hours of the session. Cable stayed in a tight range for the most part tagging along with the Euro move trading up above 1.5880 before running out of steam and the tired looking end to the session in 60/75 range. AUD looked weak after the Asian range’s low and London took advantage taking the market back above 1.0440 however, by midday we were again testing the 1.0380 level only to fail for the third time and we saw a short squeeze taking out weak stop losses moving up above 1.0460 and then finally a spike above 80 on the IMM close. USDJPY again saw repatriation selling enter the market as both EURJPY and AUDJPY reached acceptable levels, the market traded steadily lower in an orderly market eventually hitting lows just below 82.00 during the mid NYK session. Of note CAD CPI dropped to 2.6% for the first time since 2008 although it was not enough to upset the market too much with USDCAD topping at 1.0032 before dropping back below parity and finishing on the days lows.


Yesterday’s premiership results

                                                                                                                               Actual                   Consensus                          Previous              Revised  

CAD     CPI M/M Feb                                                                 0.40%               0.50%                           0.40%  

CAD     CPI Y/Y Feb                                                                  2.60%               2.70%                           2.50%  

CAD     BoC CPI Core M/M Feb                                                 0.40%               0.30%                           0.20%  

CAD     BoC CPI Core Y/Y Feb                                                  2.30%               2.20%                           2.10%  

USD     New Home Sales Feb                                                    313K                 325K                             321K    

For today

Topside : 82.60-82.90 (light two way interests) 82.90-83.20 (light offers) 83.20-83.50 (light offers) 
Downside : 81.90-82.20 (decent bids) 81.60-81.90 (decent sell stops) 81.30-81.60 (decent bids)

Topside : 1.3290-1.3320 (medium two way interests) 1.3320-1.3350 (light buy stops) 
Downside : 1.3220-1.3250 (light bids) 1.3190-1.3220 (light bids) 

Topside : 110.60-110.90 (light offers)
Downside : 108.50-108.80 (light sell stops)  AUDUSD
Topside : 1.0490-1.0520 (light two way interests) 1.0520-1.0550 (medium buy stops) 
Downside : 1.0410-1.0440 (light bids) 1.0330-1.0360 (light sell stops)


NZD: Trade balance Feb NZ$161M consensus NZ$153M previous -NZ$199M revised NZ$159

JPY: Support for Japan PM edges up amid sales tax debate -poll

EUR: Merkel’s Party To Send Mission To Madrid To Assess Spanish Risk -Report

CNY: PBOC fixes yuan mid-point at record 6.2858/dollar

CNY: China mulls expanding foreign investment quotas report

CNY: China tax head says VAT reform may boost GDP by 0.5 ppt report

USD: Obama Warns Nuclear Terrorism Still A Major Threat

CNY/KRW: China’s Hu calls for restraint on Korean peninsula -Xinhua

USD/KRW: Obama Says US Has No Hostile Intent Toward North Korea

KRW: South Korea Says Will Shoot Down North Korea Rocket If It Strays

AUD: Australia’s Swan Says Ensuring Budget Surplus Critical

NZD: New Zealand trade surplus steady in Feb, port strike bites

GBP: FSA’S Cole calls tougher penalties-FT

Pretty quiet day, with Euro’s holding onto its gains from Friday for the early part before USD buying came into the market dropping it from its resistance level at 1.3280,  AUD initially attempting to break higher touching Fridays highs before finding top pickers waiting to sell it moving steadily lower testing 1.4050, Cable struggled to do anything exciting with EURGBP trading sideways and cable staying around the 1.5860 area, USDJPY made a move higher from the opening levels to trade above 82.75, one suspects that again the JPY buying may increase as we come to the end of the month.

Today’s data

                                                                                                                              Consensus                           Previous  

21:45    NZD     Trade Balance (NZD) Feb                                   153M                            -199M  

09:00    EUR     German IFO – Business Climate Mar                   109.6                            109.6   

09:00    EUR     German IFO – Current Assessment Mar               117                               117.5   

09:00    EUR     German IFO – Expectations Mar                         102.6                            102.3   

14:00    USD     Pending Home Sales M/M Feb                           1.00%                           2.00%  

Ranges as of 6am London time

                                Bid          Offer      High       Low

USD/JPY             82.702   82.708   82.78     82.33

EUR/USD             1.32551 1.32558 1.3285   1.3248

EUR/JPY             109.622 109.636 109.85   109.4

AUD/USD             1.04480 1.04490 1.0493   1.0446

NZD/USD             0.81560 0.81580 0.8192   0.8155

USD/CAD             0.99830 0.99850 0.9985   0.9965

EUR/CHF             1.20521 1.20536 1.2054   1.2047

USD/CHF             0.90920 0.90930 0.9097   0.90702

GBP/USD            1.58560 1.58590 1.5885   1.5852

EUR/GBP            0.83585 0.83600 0.8365   0.83575

USD/SGD            1.26180 1.26210 1.2622   1.2585

EUR/SEK             8.94550 8.94900 8.955     8.922

EUR/NOK            7.63750 7.64190 7.6449   7.629

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