Good morning,
NYK Close Asian open
           NY closing         Bid  Offer
USD/JPYÂ Â Â 82.44Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.35Â 82.45
EUR/USDÂ Â Â 1.3268Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3266Â 1.3273
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â 109.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.25Â 109.43
AUD/USDÂ Â Â 1.0478Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0445Â 1.047
NZD/USDÂ Â Â 0.8187Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8155Â 0.819
USD/CADÂ Â Â 0.9977Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9975Â 0.9999
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â 1.205Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2048Â 1.2055
USD/CHFÂ Â Â 0.9081Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9075Â 0.9094
GBP/USDÂ Â Â 1.5868Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.586Â 1.5879
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â 0.8362Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.835Â 0.8364
Weekend news
JPY: Shirakawa Says Central Banks Must Consider Risks of Low Rates
JPY: Shirakawa Says Focus on Prices May Cause Swings in Economy
USD: Fed Purchases of More Bonds Opposed by Two Regional Presidents
USD: Obama Emphasizes There Is a Window to Resolve Iran Issues
CNY: PBOC Yi Says China Fx Reserves ‘Very Adequate,’ Caixin Reports
CNY: China Banks Said to Underestimate Local Government Loan Risk
CNY: China Property Prices Won’t Rebound This Year, Says Beijing News
USD/KRW: Obama Visits Border With North Korea Ahead of Nuclear Summit
KRW: S. Korea Welcomes Obama Nominating Kim as World Bank President
KRW: North Korea Has Moved Missile Body to Launch Base, Fuji TV Says
KRW: Kim Jong Un Ends 100 Days of Mourning in North Korea for Father
KRW/INR: S. Korea, India Set Target for $40B in Bilateral Trade by 2015
EUR: Merkel, Schaeuble to Back Combined Rescue Funds, Spiegel Says
EUR: Merkel’s CDU Faces Voters in State Ballot Too Close to Call
EUR: Euro Leaders Can’t Leave Crisis Management to ECB, Katainen Says
EUR: Europe Must Use Calm on Markets to Do Reforms, Asmussen Says
AUD: Australia’s Return to Surplus Critical, Swan Says Before Speech
AUD: Australia’s Ruling Labour Loses Queensland in Election Landslide
JPY/CAD: Japan and Canada Agree to Commence Free-Trade Negotiations
EUR: Rehn tells Spain. “Stick to deficit targets†FT
  Â
Harry Hindsight
A quiet day overall with French business confidence showing a surprising rise for March of 96 from a previous of 92, this kept risk in focus and saw the Euro rally during the early part of London. Having peaked above 1.3280 it failed to capitalise on the momentum and started to trade off with 80/20 players kicking in, NYK session saw profit taking and bottom pickers around the 20 level pushing the market back to the 80 level where the market then stalled and went into a 60/70 range for the remaining 5hours of the session. Cable stayed in a tight range for the most part tagging along with the Euro move trading up above 1.5880 before running out of steam and the tired looking end to the session in 60/75 range. AUD looked weak after the Asian range’s low and London took advantage taking the market back above 1.0440 however, by midday we were again testing the 1.0380 level only to fail for the third time and we saw a short squeeze taking out weak stop losses moving up above 1.0460 and then finally a spike above 80 on the IMM close. USDJPY again saw repatriation selling enter the market as both EURJPY and AUDJPY reached acceptable levels, the market traded steadily lower in an orderly market eventually hitting lows just below 82.00 during the mid NYK session. Of note CAD CPI dropped to 2.6% for the first time since 2008 although it was not enough to upset the market too much with USDCAD topping at 1.0032 before dropping back below parity and finishing on the days lows.
Â
Yesterday’s premiership results
                                                                                                                             Actual                   Consensus                         Previous              Revised Â
CAD    CPI M/M Feb                                                               0.40%             0.50%                         0.40% Â
CAD    CPI Y/Y Feb                                                                2.60%             2.70%                         2.50% Â
CAD    BoC CPI Core M/M Feb                                                0.40%             0.30%                         0.20% Â
CAD    BoC CPI Core Y/Y Feb                                                2.30%             2.20%                         2.10% Â
USD    New Home Sales Feb                                                  313K               325K                           321K   Â
For today
USDJPY
Topside : 82.60-82.90 (light two way interests) 82.90-83.20 (light offers) 83.20-83.50 (light offers)Â
Downside : 81.90-82.20 (decent bids) 81.60-81.90 (decent sell stops) 81.30-81.60 (decent bids)
EURUSD
Topside : 1.3290-1.3320 (medium two way interests) 1.3320-1.3350 (light buy stops)Â
Downside : 1.3220-1.3250 (light bids) 1.3190-1.3220 (light bids)Â
EURJPY
Topside : 110.60-110.90 (light offers)
Downside : 108.50-108.80 (light sell stops)Â AUDUSD
Topside : 1.0490-1.0520 (light two way interests) 1.0520-1.0550 (medium buy stops)Â
Downside : 1.0410-1.0440 (light bids) 1.0330-1.0360 (light sell stops)
Â
NZD: Trade balance Feb NZ$161M consensus NZ$153M previous -NZ$199M revised NZ$159
JPY: Support for Japan PM edges up amid sales tax debate -poll
EUR: Merkel’s Party To Send Mission To Madrid To Assess Spanish Risk -Report
CNY: PBOC fixes yuan mid-point at record 6.2858/dollar
CNY: China mulls expanding foreign investment quotas report
CNY: China tax head says VAT reform may boost GDP by 0.5 ppt report
USD: Obama Warns Nuclear Terrorism Still A Major Threat
CNY/KRW: China’s Hu calls for restraint on Korean peninsula -Xinhua
USD/KRW: Obama Says US Has No Hostile Intent Toward North Korea
KRW: South Korea Says Will Shoot Down North Korea Rocket If It Strays
AUD: Australia’s Swan Says Ensuring Budget Surplus Critical
NZD: New Zealand trade surplus steady in Feb, port strike bites
GBP: FSA’S Cole calls tougher penalties-FT
Pretty quiet day, with Euro’s holding onto its gains from Friday for the early part before USD buying came into the market dropping it from its resistance level at 1.3280, Â AUD initially attempting to break higher touching Fridays highs before finding top pickers waiting to sell it moving steadily lower testing 1.4050, Cable struggled to do anything exciting with EURGBP trading sideways and cable staying around the 1.5860 area, USDJPY made a move higher from the opening levels to trade above 82.75, one suspects that again the JPY buying may increase as we come to the end of the month.
Today’s data
                                                                                                                         Consensus                           Previous Â
21:45   NZD    Trade Balance (NZD) Feb                                 153M                          -199M Â
09:00   EUR    German IFO – Business Climate Mar                  109.6                          109.6  Â
09:00   EUR    German IFO – Current Assessment Mar              117                             117.5  Â
09:00   EUR    German IFO – Expectations Mar                       102.6                          102.3  Â
14:00   USD    Pending Home Sales M/M Feb                         1.00%                         2.00% Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                              Bid         Offer     High      Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.702Â Â 82.708Â Â 82.78Â Â Â Â 82.33
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32551 1.32558 1.3285Â Â 1.3248
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.622 109.636 109.85Â Â 109.4
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04480 1.04490 1.0493Â Â 1.0446
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81560 0.81580 0.8192Â Â 0.8155
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99830 0.99850 0.9985Â Â 0.9965
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20521 1.20536 1.2054Â Â 1.2047
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90920 0.90930 0.9097Â Â 0.90702
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.58560 1.58590 1.5885Â Â 1.5852
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83585 0.83600 0.8365Â Â 0.83575
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26180 1.26210 1.2622Â Â 1.2585
EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.94550 8.94900 8.955Â Â Â Â 8.922
EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.63750 7.64190 7.6449Â Â 7.629