Daily FX Rambles

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

NYK Close

EUR                        1.33575

GBP                       1.59707

JPY                         82.818

CHF                        0.90293

AUD                       1.05339

NZD                       0.8212

CAD                       0.99092

EURCHF                1.20607

EURJPY                 110.634

EURGBP               0.83639

  
Harry Hindsight

The Asian market was very quiet and the ranges tight, Euro’s moved into the London session just above the 1.3260 level and looking vulnerable however, German IFO numbers came in better than expected helping to stave off any move down through 1.3200, even so it was only comments from Bernanke that turned the market fully, one would surmise that the US is happy with a weak USD specifically against the Euro, after months of upbeat news from the US he leads us to believe that QE is on the cards again he didn’t directly say it but the implication was there, personally I doubt it but who knows. Euro’s from this point was bid for the remainder of the day trading steadily upwards to above 1.3350  for a tidy gain and upsetting many an analyst in the process. GBPUSD tagged along with the Euro’s with nothing in the way of data or scandal (apart from private dinner parties I never seem to be invited too), left the GBP following along slowly moving from a low just above 1.5800 struggling to 1.5950 for a 1% movement on the day, nice if you got it right. EURGBP stayed pretty much in line only slightly higher on the day as Bernanke’s comments turned everyone USD negative. AUD well since I told my boss that it was dead in the water and with contracting business sentiment and figures in China AUD has done nothing but go upwards, while I can agree that China is a large market for the Ozzies, Japan is larger and I’d be more concerned on that front if there wasn’t so much rebuilding going on, but the risk takers have seen fit to buy over the last 3 days of trading so who am I to argue heavy GBPAUD buying was seen during the session the only reason Oz didn’t push to the 1.0600 level. Having traded steadily lower over the Asian session, it took impetus from the –USD comments and moved firmly back above 1.0500. USDJPY the only exception to the rule of the day as carry trade buyers appeared again to buy EURJPY and AUDJPY, whether they are purely carry trades remains to be seen but a lot of retail, and importer buyers were seen in the market during early Asia, the move was continued into London with only small pull backs on –USD comments with a solid 50tic range on the day almost seems worth day trading. Comments by Schneider-Ammann Min of Economy in Switzerland to increase the cap on EURCHF did move the market a few tics but we are getting used to these fanciful ideas.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual                   Consensus                          Previous              Revised  

NZD     Trade Balance (NZD) Feb

161M                153M                            -199M               -159M

EUR     German IFO – Business Climate Mar

109.8                109.6                            109.6                109.7

EUR     German IFO – Current Assessment Mar

117.4                117                               117.5                117.4

EUR     German IFO – Expectations Mar

102.7                102.6                            102.3                102.4

USD     Pending Home Sales M/M Feb

-0.50%              1.00%                           2.00%  

 

For today

USDJPY
Topside : 83.00-83.30 (light buy stops) 83.50-83.80 (medium buy stops) 84.00-84.30 (light offers) 
Downside : 82.30-82.60 (light sell stops) 82.00-82.30 (medium bids) 81.60-81.90 (decent bids) 81.00-81.40 (medium bids) 

EURUSD
Topside : 1.3360-1.3380(light offers) 1.3380 (med buy stops) 1.3420 (med offers) 1.3430-1.3470 (light buy stops) 1.3500-1.3530 (light buy stops) 
Downside : 1.3280-1.3310 (light sell stops) 1.3220-1.3250 (light bids) 

EURJPY
Topside : 111.50-112.00 (light offers) 112.20-112.50 (medium buy stops) 
Downside : 109.70-110.00 (light bids) AUDUSD
Topside : 1.0540-1.0570 (light buy stops) 1.0590-1.0620 (light offers) 
Downside : 1.0450-1.0480 (light bids) 1.0400-1.0430 (medium sell stops) 

JPY      Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb            -0.60%  consensus -0.40% previous -0.20% revision -0.40%

CNY: China Hu: Large Yuan Rise Wouldn’t Solve US Economic Problems – Xinhua

CNY: PBOC fixes yuan mid-point at record 6.2840/dollar

CNY: China Jan-Feb industrial profits down 5.2% from year ago

CNY: China Raises 2012 Long-Term Foreign Debt Quotas For Foreign Banks – Sources

KRW: North Korea gives details of “weather” satellite launch

KRW: North Korea Military Elects New Leader As Party Delegate

JPY/KRW: Tanaka Tells SDF To Prepare For N. Korea Rocket’s Possible Fall On Japan -Kyodo

JPY/KRW: Japan PM: N Korea rocket launch will break UN pacts

JPY/CNY/KRW: PM Noda: Hope To Collaborate With China On Discouraging N Korea Missile Launch

JPY: Azumi: Hopes Ruling Party Stance on Proposed Consumption Tax Hike To Be Decided Tuesday

JPY: Japan Econ Min Furukawa: Govt Will Use Every Possible Tool To End Deflation

AUD: Australia CB: A$ value consistent with terms of trade

AUD: Reserve Bank Of Australia’s Corbett Upbeat China, Neutral Australia

GBP: UK in talks to sell part of RBS stake to Abu Dhabi -BBC

NZD: NZ filled jobs slip in January – official data

Another quiet session in Asia, Fitch announced Australian mortgage arrears rise unexpectedly, which when added to Stockland Group announcement (property developer) downgrade citing the impact of banks raising rates independently of RBA it doesn’t seem like a surprise to anyone. AUD slowly declined from this point moving down from the closing rate towards the 1.0500 level, Euro’s stayed in a pretty tight range peaking above 1.3365 but then dragged lower by the AUD into the mid 40’s. GBP stayed in a 15 tic range 55/70 for the most part. USDJPY briefly attempted to break higher through 83.00 but ran into exporter offers dropping back into the 80’s where it continued to trade for 4hrs. Talk of a down channel from 29 August in the targets for tech traders a break above would seem to indicate another leg up to above 1.3400 however, fundamentals would suggest otherwise for the time being.

Today’s data

Consensus                           Previous  

06:00    EUR     German Import Price Index M/M Feb

1.00%                           1.30%  

06:00    CHF      UBS Consumption Indicator Feb

0.92     

07:00    EUR     German GfK Sentiment Apr

6.1                                6         

10:00    GBP     CBI Rep

-5                                 -2        

13:00    USD     S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jan

-3.80%                          -4.00% 

14:00    USD     Consumer Confidence Mar

70                                 70.8     

Ranges as of 6am London time

                                Bid          Offer      High       Low

USD/JPY             82.862   82.872   83.04     82.8

EUR/USD             1.33503 1.33512 1.3366   1.33435

EUR/JPY             110.623 110.644 110.93   110.554

AUD/USD             1.05180 1.05200 1.0536   1.0504

NZD/USD             0.82200 0.82220 0.8236   0.8215

USD/CAD             0.99100 0.99130 0.9922   0.9911

EUR/CHF             1.20620 1.20624 1.20671 1.2058

USD/CHF             0.90343 0.90352 0.904     0.9027

GBP/USD            1.59620 1.59640 1.5972   1.5957

EUR/GBP            0.83630 0.83645 0.8371   0.8362

USD/SGD            1.25780 1.25810 1.2597   1.2568

EUR/SEK             8.89600 8.89940 8.911     8.896

EUR/NOK            7.58000 7.58500 7.5854   7.5787

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Regards

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Senior Dealer Manager

Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594

[email protected] | http://www.lmax.com

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