Andy Harrison
Good morning,
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NYK Close
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33169
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59508
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 83.169
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90505
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04568
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82198
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99522
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20536
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83487
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.758
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Harry Hindsight
Euro’s spike to the bottom end of the downward channel dating back to last year, and with a decent Italian auction the break out was looking good, until it ran into large resistance the move was over and done with and declined almost as quickly as the stop loss runners and break out merchants had taken it up, from that point on though it was all one way as OECD made comments about continuing weak banking systems in Europe and add to which the Bank of Spain reported that the country was in recession and deficit targets would be difficult to attain, by the time NYK arrived in they’d missed the moves and really had nothing to do until late in the session when the market again started to move lower through 1.3340 pushing into the mid teen’s to set the day’s lows. GBP continued to move higher as USD weakness continued out of Asia and into London we moved up in an attempt at 1.6000 however, this 1.5990/1.6000 has been a resistance level for nearly a year and again became a stumbling block for the cable, saying that as Euro’s dropped GBP followed down to 1.5945 and had several attempts during the hour or so to penetrate lower and failed, EURGBP selling moved into the market and GBP found itself moving higher triggering weak stop losses and again going above 1.5990, EURGBP declined 35 tics and the market had now had its 15mins of fame and normality flicked in with cable starting to move back into line with the Euro. With the Euro’s decline AUD peaked at 1.0559 and started it’s steady decline over the rest of the sessions, initially struggling to penetrate 1.0480 for several hours it hung around until late in the session it broke and continued down to finish below 1.0460 (phew) this was generally caused by general revaluation of the Bernanke speech and China’s soft landing. USDJPY improved on the highs of Asia pushing up through the 83.00 it had previously failed at and rose beyond 83.30 lifers and importers were blamed however one suspects that with the AUD and EUR being sold gave the opportunity for Japanese retail to start buying forward contracts into the next financial year.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
23:50Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb
-0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.40%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Feb
1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30%Â Â
06:00Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Feb
0.87Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92Â Â Â Â Â
07:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German GfK Sentiment Apr
5.9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Mar
0Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jan
-3.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -3.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.00%Â
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Mar
70.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 70Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 70.8
Â
For today
USDJPY
Topside : 83.35-83.75 (medium buy stops) 84.00-84.30 (light
offers)
Downside : 82.80-82.95 (medium sell stops) 82.25-82.70 (light
sell stops)
EURUSD
Topside : 1.3380-1.3400 (light offers) 1.3420 (Med buy stops)
Downside : 1.3280 (light bids) 1.3270 (weak stop losses) 1.3190-1.3220 (light bids)
EURJPY
Downside: 109.60-109.80 (light bids)
AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0540-1.0560 (light offers) 1.0560 (light buy stops)
Downside: 1.0420-1.0450 (medium sell stops), 1.0400-1.0420 (light sell stops) 1.0380-1.0360 (med sell stops)
JPY
BOJ Miyao: Powerful Easing One Path For End To Deflation
BOJ DepGov rules out ‘Operation Twist’ in Japan
Japan Finance Minister: Ready To Submit Tax Hike Bill By This FY End
Japan Fin Min Azumi: Govt Wants To Act On Ruling Party Tax Proposal
USD
Fed’s Bullard: Wouldn’t Want To Feed Oil Price Shock With Monetary Easing
AUD
RBA: Asia Banks Grow In Australia As Europeans Cut Back
Australia CB warns banks not to chase unrealistic profits
EUR
Italian PM Monti: Prevention Measures Against Future Crisis Much More Solid
EU Van Rompuy: Expect Positive Results From Talks On Euro Zone Debt Crisis This Week
Italian auctions continue today with several tranches to go. Concerns that Greek parties are beginning to splinter ahead of elections seems to be doing the rounds, raising the risk of not being able or wanting to comply with agreements. USD remained bid across the board apart from the USDJPY given the date there has been a supply of EURJPY and AUDJPY going through as the back end of repatriation flow continues, Euro’s drifted lower from NYK close to 1.3328/30, AUD continues its slide and is insight of the 1.0380 level where stop losses are seen building, Cable did next to nothing moving a touch higher is a tight range.
Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 F
-0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.20%Â
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q4 F
0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Current Account (GBP) Q4
-8.4BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -15.2BÂ Â
12:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German CPI M/M Mar P
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â
12:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Mar PÂ
2.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.30%Â Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Feb
2.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.00%Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Feb
2.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -3.20%Â
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories
                                   -1.2M  Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                              Bid         Offer     High      Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.871Â Â 82.879Â Â 83.229Â Â 82.84
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33262 1.33278 1.3337Â Â 1.3313
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.436 110.459 110.889 110.42
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04260 1.04270 1.046Â Â Â Â 1.0421
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81830 0.81850 0.8207Â Â 0.8179
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99590 0.99610 0.9963Â Â 0.9952
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20551 1.20559 1.2058Â Â 1.2052
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90442 0.90460 0.9053Â Â 0.90416
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59550 1.59580 1.5964Â Â 1.5947
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83520 0.83530 0.83565 0.835
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25720 1.25740 1.2583Â Â 1.2561
EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.89100 8.89600 8.91Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.894
EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.59000 7.59550 7.5941Â Â 7.59
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Regards
Andy Harrison
Night Risk Manager
Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594
[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com
LMAX, Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London W11 4AN
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