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Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33162

GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.58882

JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.888

CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90519

AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03884

NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81614

CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99834

EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20545

EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83811

EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.378

Â Â
Harry Hindsight

Headlines printed that the EU is set to boost the aid ceiling to â‚¬940B for one year, running the ESM alongside the EFSF allowing the unused â‚¬240B to be used until mid-2013 after which point the normal ceiling will revert of â‚¬700B. Spanish EcoMin Guindos made a few comments basically saying he didn’t expect the 1Q to be as bad as the 4Q. The revision on durable goods balanced out the failure to meet expectations so nothing really changed for the USD. Italian Bonds auction did better than previous with yields falling and cover increasing as risk appetite seemed to be improving. With weaker than expected European data the Euro’s continued to weaken, moving up in the early part of the session it soon ran into problems once it failed to push back above 1.3380 drifting back to 1.3360 then moving sharply lower once the durable goods numbers came into the market dropping to the 1.3280 before finding some support. While Cable was in a sideways market in Asia all bets where off once the GDP figures confirmed what we all knew, having traded around the 1.5960 level while Euro fell in Asia, London took it lower as the data fed through pushing down towards the 1.5840 level before finding support, EURGBP moved higher by 20 tics or so. AUD continued its progress lower penetrating 1.0380 triggering stop losses however, it found support down around the 1.0360 area which was a little bit of surprise and moved the market back above 1.0380. USDJPY Traded down during Asia through light repatriation flow going through ending in early London, from that point USD strength took over and moved back above the 83.00 area but failed to hold above moving back lower after the durable good order numbers.

Yesterday’s premiership results

ActualÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ConsensusÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PreviousÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â RevisedÂ Â

EURÂ Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

2.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.50%Â

GBPÂ Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-0.30% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.20% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.20%

GBPÂ Â Â GDP Y/Y Q4 FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â

GBPÂ Â Â Current Account (GBP) Q4Â Â Â

-8.5BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -8.4BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -15.2B Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -10.5B

EURÂ Â Â German CPI M/M Mar PÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â

EURÂ Â Â German CPI Y/Y Mar PÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.30%Â

USDÂ Â Â Durable Goods Orders FebÂ Â Â

2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.00% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -3.70%

USDÂ Â Â Durables Ex Transportation FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -3.20% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -3.00%

USDÂ Â Â Crude Oil InventoriesÂ

7.1MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.8MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.2M

For today

USDJPY
Topside : 83.00-83.30 (light buy stops) 83.40-83.70 (decent buy stops) 83.80-84.10 (light offers) 84.20-84.50 (decent offers)Â
Downside : 82.40-82.70 (medium sell stops) 82.00-82.30 (medium bids) 81.50-82.00 (decent bids)Â

EURUSD
Topside : 1.3330-1.3360 (light offers) 1.3370-1.3400 (medium buy stops) 1.3420-1.3450 (light offers)Â
Downside : 1.3230-1.3260 (medium sell stops) 1.3180-1.3210 (light sell stops) 1.3130-1.3160 (medium sell stops)Â

EURJPY
Topside : 110.80-111.10 (light buy stops) 111.50-111.80 (light buy stops) 111.90-112.20 (medium buy stops)
Downside : 109.50-109.50 (light bids)Â AUDUSD
Topside : 1.0400-1.0430 (medium buy stops) 1.0450-1.0480 (medium offers) 1.0500-1.0550 (light offers)
Downside : 1.0340-1.0370 (light sell stops) 1.0300-1.0330 (medium sell stops) 1.0270-1.0300 (light sell stops)Â

Euro’s traded in a tight range with little to go on before the numbers we await for the day. Cable also quiet moving up to just above the 1.5900 level with only EURGBP selling going through to upset the market. AUD continues lower pushing down through 1.0350 before finding some support but it couldn’t recover back above the pivotal level of 1.0380 that seemed so important yesterday, A$ bills seeing 10Bps taken off for April and 22Bps for May. AUDNZD hit 5mths lows. USDJPY holds its own as most of the repatriation flows is now over and done with and the pair becomes more dominated by normal events.

JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y FebÂ Â Â Â

3.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.80%

NZDÂ Â Â Â NBNZ Business Confidence MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

33.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 28Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

JPY

Azumi: Expect Positive Outcome From DPJ Talks With PNP Kamei Over Sales Tax BillÂ

Japan fund managers cut bonds on recovery story, buy EU stocksÂ

Japan Feb Overall Retail Sales +3.5% On YearÂ

Most Japan Pensions Have No Investment Experience, Survey ShowsÂ

CNY

China allocates $24 bln foreign debt quota to six foreign banks

NZD

Fonterra CEO Expects China Slowdown But Has No Fears For DairyÂ

AUD

Treasurer Wayne Swan said the budget in May will contain more cuts to spending as the government faces increasingly uphill battle to move its fiscal accounts from deficit

Australia job vacancies edge up 0.7% in Feb qtr.

GBP

FT reports infighting of the chancellors plan to take Â£10B out of the welfare budget being openly resisted by dept. of works and pensions.

Today’s data

ConsensusÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PreviousÂ Â

7:55Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German Unemployment Change MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-10KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â

7:55Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

6.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.80%Â Â

8:30Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

57.2KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 58.7KÂ Â Â

8:30Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

1.60%Â Â

8:30Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â M4 Money Supply Y/Y FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-1.80%Â

8:30Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M JanÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%Â Â

9:00Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-19Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -19Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

9:00Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

94.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 94.4Â Â Â Â Â

9:00Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-5.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -5.8Â Â Â Â Â Â

9:00Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-0.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.9Â Â Â Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â

12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â

12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q4 FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

3.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.00%Â Â

12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q4 FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90%Â Â

12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Initial Jobless ClaimsÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

350KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 348KÂ Â Â Â

14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Natural Gas StorageÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

49BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 11BÂ Â Â Â Â

20:00Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Canadian Annual Budget Release

Ranges as of 6am London time

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BidÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â OfferÂ Â Â Â Â HighÂ Â Â Â Â Â Low

USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.667Â Â 82.680Â Â 82.972Â Â 82.544

EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33228 1.33239 1.33328 1.33068

EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.136 110.162 110.5Â Â Â Â 109.97

AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03710 1.03730 1.0405Â Â 1.0341

NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81710 0.81730 0.8194Â Â 0.8153

USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99810 0.99830 0.9991Â Â 0.9976

EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20541 1.20554 1.2058Â Â 1.20521

USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90464 0.90494 0.90579 0.9043

GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59070 1.59100 1.591Â Â Â Â 1.5885

EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83740 0.83760 0.8385Â Â 0.8375

USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25790 1.25810 1.2602Â Â 1.2573

EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.86430 8.87160 8.8721Â Â 8.863

EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.64040 7.64670 7.646Â Â Â Â 7.6399

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Regards

Andy Harrison

Night Risk Manager

Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594

[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com

LMAX, Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London W11 4AN

FX and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses exceeding
your deposit. They are not suitable for everyone so please ensure you
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LMAX operates a multilateral trading facility. Authorised and regulated
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4AN.

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