Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Weekend News
CNY: China March Manufacturing PMI at 53.1
CNY: China HSBC Manufacturing PMI Falls to 48.3 in March
CNY: China Expects to Narrow Its Current Account Surplus This Year
EUR/CNY: Italy, China to Strengthen Cooperation, Monti Says in Beijing
EUR: Europe Eyes IMF War Chest Boost as Firewall Tops $1 Trillion
EUR: EU Officials Praise Spain Budget, Urge Speedy Implementation
EUR: Schaeuble Condemns Discord ’Nonsense’ Following Euro Spat
EUR: OECD’s Padoan Sees Euro Area as Biggest Threat to Global Growth
EUR: Portugal Market Return Depends on Progress, Constancio Says
EUR: Kenny Says Ireland Won’t Default as It Seeks to Ease Bank Burden
EUR: ECB’s Weidmann Says Ver.di Pay Agreement Shouldn’t Be Benchmark
USD: Fed’s Kocherlakota Says Fed Doing ‘As Well as It Can’Â
JPY: Okada Says Japan Sales Tax Bill Should Reflect Opposition Wishes
JPY/THB: Honda Thailand Plans to Run Ayutthaya Plant at Full Capacity
JPY: Japan to Open 3 Towns After Tepco Nuclear Crisis EvacuationÂ
KRW: N. Korea Slams U.S. Plan to Halt Food Aid on Rocket Launch
AUD: Australia’s New Mining Tax ‘Clumsy,’ Wealth Fund’s Murray Says
NZD: Key Says New Zealand May Present a Zero Budget Next Month
Â
Asian open and NYK Close
Bid         offer     close
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.95Â Â Â 82.98Â Â Â 82.87Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EUR/USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3355Â 1.336Â Â Â 1.3343Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EUR/JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.78Â 110.86Â 110.56Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
AUD/USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0442Â 1.0444Â 1.0346Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
NZD/USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8218Â 0.8238Â 0.8187Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USD/CAD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9955Â 0.996Â Â Â 0.9987Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EUR/CHF Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20348 1.20449 1.20409Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.901Â Â 0.904Â Â Â 0.9025Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBP/USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6001Â 1.6025Â 1.6008Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EUR/GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83235 0.8345Â 0.83269Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Harry Hindsight
From the Asian rally Euro’s failed to capitalise and couldn’t move through the increasing  important 1.3385 level and stayed in a tight band of 1.3360/20 for the best part of the day with volumes less than normal and declining towards the close. Cable managed to push through 1.6000 comfortably but having extended through 1.6030 on 3 occasions failed to move higher before collapsing back below the figure with again volumes dropping as we moved into the last hour of the session saw a few fresh buyers moving it back above the 1.6000 level for an overall gain on the day. AUD again finished towards those lowers we’ve been seeing over the past 24hrs  but a lack of interest meant it didn’t push to much lower as it looked like doing in early parts of the session. USDJPY with personal income dropping but spending increasing and all other figures in line USD found itself bid against most currencies in the later part of the session but in particular against the Yen moving from 82.00 to 82.80 level over the course of the NYK session to finish the day on its highs.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
21:45   NZD    Building Permits M/M Feb        Â
-6.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.30%Â Â
23:01   GBP    GfK Consumer Sentiment Mar  Â
-31Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -29Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -29Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
23:15   JPY     Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Mar Â
51.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 50.5Â Â Â Â Â
23:30   JPY     Unemployment Rate Feb         Â
4.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.60%Â Â
23:30   JPY     Household Spending Y/Y Feb  Â
2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.30%Â
23:30   JPY     Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar          Â
-0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%Â
23:30   JPY     National CPI Core Y/Y Feb       Â
0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.10%Â
23:50Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Feb PÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
-1.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.90%Â Â
05:00Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 7.50%Â Â
-1.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.10%Â
06:00   EUR    German Retail Sales M/M Feb  Â
-1.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.60%Â
07:00   CHF     KOF Leading Indicator Mar      Â
0.08Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.07Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.12Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.11
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar
2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.70%Â Â
12:30   CAD    GDP M/M Jan Â
0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â
12:30   USD    Personal Income Feb   Â
0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Personal Spending Feb
0.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â
12:30   USD    PCE Deflator Y/Y Feb Â
2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.40%Â Â
12:30   USD    PCE Core M/M Feb     Â
0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â
12:30   USD    PCE Core Y/Y Feb      Â
1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.90%Â Â
13:45   USD    Chicago PMI Mar         Â
62.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 63Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 64
13:55Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Mar FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
76.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 74.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 74.3
CNY PMI Mch
53.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 51.0
For today
USDJPY
Topside : 83.30-83.60 (decent buy stops) 83.70-84.00 (decent buy stops) 84.00-84.30 (light offers) 84.30-84.60 (decent offers) 84.70-85.00 (medium offers)
Downside : 82.60-82.90 (light bids) 82.20-82.50 (mixed net net light bids) 81.70-82.00 (medium bids) 81.30-81.60 (good 2 way net net medium sell stops)Â
EURUSD Topside : 1.3370-1.3400 (light offers) 1.3400-1.3430 (medium buy stops) 1.3450-1.3470 (medium offers) 1.3480-1.3510 (medium buy stops)
Downside : 1.3300-1.3330 (medium sell stops) 1.3250-1.3280 (light bids) 1.3200-1.3230 (medium sell stops)Â
EURJPY
Topside : 111.50-111.80 (light buy stops) 112.00-112.30 (medium buy stops) 112.50-113.00 (decent offers)
Downside : nothing much to mention for the next 100ptsAUDUSD
Topside : 1.0470-1.0500 (medium offers) 1.0500-1.0550 (medium offers) 1.0570-1.0600 (light offers)
Downside : 1.0350-1.0380 (light bids) 1.0300-1.0330 (medium sell stops)Â
JPY: BOJ Mar Tankan: Big Mfrs Diffusion Index -4; Mkt Expected -1
JPY: Japan PM says hopes BOJ continues to take bold action
JPY: BOJ Yamaguchi says Feb easing helped lift sentiment
JPY: Japan Govt Fujimura: High Oil Prices A Concern For Econ Recovery
CNY: China vice-premier says some Asia countries face weak growth
SGD/IDR: Singapore’s DBS Seeks To Buy Bank Danamon For S$9.1 Bln
SGD: Singapore 1Q Private Residential Prices Fall 0.1% On Quarter Vs. +0.2% In 4Q11
AUD: Australia Feb Residential Building Approvals Fell 7.8%
AUD: Australia inflation gauge hits 2-yr low in March-TDMI
AUD: Australia manufacturing activity goes flat in March
NZD: N.Z. Treasury Says GDP Growth May Be as Slow as 2% in 2012
EUR: Italy’s Monti says much to be done to put house in order
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
23:50Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q1Â Â Â
-4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
23:50Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â
5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
1:30     AUD    Building Approvals M/M Feb    Â
-7.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10%
A better than expected China PMI over the weekend saw a big open for the AUD at 1.0440/45 a big figure up from Fridays close, while the number was good it still doesn’t help with declining exports and the impact that is likely to have on Ozzie exports of raw materials, this was underlined once the market opened properly in Asia and we saw a plethora of risk sellers entering the market selling anything and everything against the Oz over the session moving it back below 1.0400 and into the 1.0380’s. Euro’s was steady on the opening moving up but nowhere near the 1.3385 level that seems to be the sticking point for the market as AUD declined so did the Euro trading steadily lower into the 1.3330’s. Cable briefly held above the 1.6000 level but with USD firmly in ascendency once the initial move was finished with it moved slowly down into the upper 1.5880’s, USDJPY continued to move higher  with worse than expected Tanken report, moving above the 83.00 level as normality settles into the new financial year.
AUD rate announcement tomorrow and the market is overwhelming in its belief that nothing will happen, the fact domestic problems seeming to cover the China worries.
Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
7:15     CHF     Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Feb                  Â
3.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.40%Â Â
7:30     CHF     SVME-PMI Mar           Â
49.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 49Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:00Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Mar FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
47.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 47.7Â Â Â Â Â
8:30     GBP    PMI Manufacturing Mar            Â
50.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 51.2Â Â Â Â Â
9:00     EUR    Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb                  Â
10.80% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 10.70%
14:00   USD    Construction Spending M/M Feb                      Â
0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.10%Â
14:00   USD    ISM Manufacturing Mar            Â
53.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 52.4Â Â Â Â Â
14:00   USD    ISM Prices Paid Mar                Â
62.3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 61.5
Ranges as of 6am London time
                              Bid                        Offer                    High                      Low
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3344Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3345Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3377Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33317
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.98Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.985Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 83.31Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.761
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.718Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.729Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.13Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.572
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9020Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90219Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90317 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9004
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5992Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59932Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.603Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5979
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03995Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0400Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.047Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.037
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8198Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81994Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8247Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8185
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99658Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99675Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9978Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9951
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20391Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2040Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20451 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2037
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83441 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83452 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8348Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83235
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