Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK CLOSE
|
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
1.32395 |
|
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
1.6234 |
|
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
79.822 |
|
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
0.90744 |
|
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
1.04303 |
|
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
0.81756 |
|
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
0.98716 |
|
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
1.20141 |
|
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
0.81554 |
|
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
105.68 |
Harry Hindsight
Spain has officially entered recession, add to which an increase in Eurozone CPI had the Euro on the back foot, falling from the Asian highs above 1.3265 down to 1.3210 before finding some support and a slow grind up to above 1.3230, with a lot of the world honouring May bank holidays some on the Monday and some on the Tuesday the market struggled to find much momentum. GBP was dragged lower with the Euro drifting from early London highs of 1.6300 to trade between 1.6220/40 for the remaining hours of the day. AUD traded slowly lower as nervousness over the todays RBA decision moving down from above 1.0460 to trade 1.0408/30 for the NYK session. With Tokyo out for the day safe haven buying of Yen seemed to be the name of the game from the Asian highs of 80.35 area the market moved slowly over the day to hold just above the 79.75 area into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
|
Actual |
Consensus |
Previous |
Revised |
|
|
22:45Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Mar |
19.80% |
6.00% |
-6.70%Â |
|
|
22:45Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Mar |
134M |
417M |
161M |
|
|
00:30Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation M/M Apr |
0.30% |
0.50% |
||
|
01:00Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â NBNZ Business Confidence Apr |
35.8 |
33.8 |
||
|
08:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Mar |
3.20% |
2.80% |
2.80% |
|
|
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr |
2.60% |
2.50% |
2.60% |
2.70% |
|
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â GDP M/M Feb |
-0.20% |
0.20% |
0.10%Â Â |
|
|
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Mar |
0.20% |
0.00% |
0.20% |
|
|
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar |
-1.60% |
0.20% |
-0.50% |
|
|
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Personal Income Mar |
0.40% |
0.30% |
0.20% |
|
|
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Personal Spending Mar |
0.30% |
0.40% |
0.80%Â Â |
|
|
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Mar |
2.10% |
2.20% |
2.30% |
|
|
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Mar |
0.20% |
0.20% |
0.10%Â Â |
|
|
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Mar |
2.00% |
1.90% |
1.90% |
|
|
13:45   USD    Chicago PMI Apr |
56.2 |
60.5 |
62.2 |
For today
JPY
Topside: 80.40-70 (light staggered offers), 80.90-81.40 (light staggered offers)
Downside: 79.40-70 (medium stop sellers), 79.10-30 (medium bids)
EUR
Topside: 1.3255-75 (medium stop buyers), 1.3280-1.3300 (light 2-way interest), 1.3305-25 (light stop buyers)
Downside: 1.3200-20 (light 2-way interest), 1.3160-80 (light stop sellers), 1.3130-50 (light stops)
EURJPY
Topside: 106.05-25 (light-medium stop buyers), 106.90-107.10 (light 2-way interest)
Downside: Not much of interest till 104.00-20 (light bids) AUD
Topside: 1.0470-1.0500 (light offers), 1.0505-25 (2-way interest, light offering bias)
Downside: 1.0390-1.0410 (light 2-way interest), 1.0355-75 (more light 2-way interest), 1.0325-45 (medium stops)Â
Â
The market settled down for the bank holiday in most places and to await the RBA rate Decision, Euro’s sat 1.3234/44 before the rate change in Australia once the news hit EUR/AUD buying saw the Euro move above 50 topping out at 1.3259 before holding. GBP struggled over the session slowly moving from 1.6240 area down below 30 before finding some buying interest against the AUD. USDJPY moved up above 79.90 briefly on fixing demand but stayed in a tight band for the session trading for the most part between 79.84/90. AUD the market was steady with a slight decline in front of the announcement, everyone expected 25bps so as Cilla Black says Surprise, Surprise we got 50bps and AUD moved from 1.0400 area down to 1.0350 in the first minute before running into short term players take profits once the level was taken out the decline continued but in a more orderly fashion.Â
|
Actual |
Consensus |
Previous |
Revised |
|
|
1:00     CNY    PMI Manufacturing Apr |
53.3 |
53.6 |
53.1 |
|
|
1:30Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â House Price Index Q/Q Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
-1.10% |
-0.50% |
-1.00% |
-0.70% |
|
4:30Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision |
3.75% |
4.00% |
4.25% |
Â
Today’s data
|
Consensus |
Previous |
|
|
8:30Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Apr |
51.5 |
52.1 |
|
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Apr |
53 |
53.4 |
|
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Apr |
59 |
61 |
|
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Mar |
0.40% |
-1.10%Â |
|
23:50Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Apr |
4.10% |
-0.20%Â |
Ranges as of 6am London time
|
High      |
Low |
|
|
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
1.3260Â Â |
1.32340 |
|
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
79.945Â Â |
79.67 |
|
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
105.87Â Â |
105.58 |
|
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
0.9076Â Â |
0.90609 |
|
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
1.6240Â Â |
1.6223 |
|
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
1.0430Â Â |
1.0324 |
|
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
0.8188Â Â |
0.8135 |
|
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
0.9889Â Â |
0.9868 |
|
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
1.2016Â Â |
1.2011 |
|
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â |
0.8169Â Â |
0.8154 |
Â