Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK CLOSE
EUR 1.31522 | GBP 1.61774| JPYÂ 80.192 | CHF 0.91353| AUD 1.0264 | NZD 0.79953| CAD 0.9886 | EURCHF 1.2015 | EURGBP 0.81294 | EURJPY 105.464
Harry Hindsight
A slow decline throughout Asia and into early Europe, with Spanish yields moving up again during the bond sale, the short dated were oversubscribed but then the coupon was attractive and as yet investors are willing to buy. Early US figures moved the market to its lows below 1.3100 before the ISM numbers put a spoke in the wheel and gave the Euro something to move back up on setting the high for the day at 1.3180, with Technical traders looking at moving average indicators 1.3050 is the level to watch, Euro’s ended the day little changed on the day before close. GBP Â while the range was fairly tight over the whole day, it was a day traders market with several moves below 1.6160 and above 1.6190 with a peak in early NYK back above 1.6212 on real money buying. AUD continues its move downwards breaking briefly below the 1.0250 level that we have been sticking at over the past month or so, but having got there it didn’t move to far away from the level, but still has to respect the potential export buying for hedges over a year. But from 1.0337 down to a low of 1.0240 is a nice little move. USDJPY rose steadily higher over the session moving from previous days close 80.08 up to peak in the NYK session just after the numbers at 80.56 before the late US figures kicked in and turned it back below 80.30 moving towards the close we saw another round of weak longs and profit taking attempting to get out.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus=C | Previous=P | Revised=R Â
22:45Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Q1 A 6.70% | C 6.20% | P 6.30% | R 6.40%
22:45Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Employment Change Q/Q Q1 A 0.40% |Â C 0.50% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
01:00Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â China Non-manufacturing PMI Apr A 56.1 | P 58Â
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â PMI Services Apr A 53.3 | C 54.1 | P 55.3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
09:00   EUR    Eurozone PPI M/M Mar A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%   Â
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Mar A 3.30% | C 3.40% | P 3.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â
11:30   USD    Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr A 11.20% | P -8.80%       Â
11:45Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q1 (P) A -0.50%Â | C -0.50% | P 0.90%Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q1 (P) A 2.00% | C 2.70% | P 2.80%Â Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims A 365K | C 380K | P 388KÂ
14:00   USD    ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Apr A 53.5 | C 55.3 | R 56   Â
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 28B | C 31B | P 47B
For today
USDJPY
Topside : 80.60-80.95 (heavy staggered offers)
Downside : 79.95-79.65 (good staggered sell stops) 79.60-79.40 (more decent sell stops)
EURUSD
Topside : 1.3190-1.3250 (good 2 way interest with a slight offered bias)
Downside : 1.3140-1.3090 (light sell stops) 1.3085-1.3050 (small bids)
EURJPY
Topside: 106.20-106.40 (small buy stops)
Downside: 104.90-104.75 (marginal sell stops)
AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0295-1.0335 (light buy stops) 1.0345-1.0375 (more small buy stops)
Downside: 1.0250-1.0210 (marginal staggered sell stops)
AUD:
Australia CB cuts growth forecasts, sees much lower inflationÂ
Australia’s Westpac cuts variable mortgage rate by 37 bpsÂ
Australia Can Become Food Superpower For Asia – PMÂ
Australia Treasurer Says Budget Plan Included In Economy ForecastsÂ
JPY:
Japan Pension Fund To Invest In Emerging-Market Stocks – NikkeiÂ
USD/CNY:
U.S.’s Geithner says China yuan reforms promisingÂ
Clinton tells Hu that China-U.S. ties strongÂ
China Premier Tells Clinton To Respect DifferencesÂ
CNY:
China paper calls Chen a U.S. pawn; envoy is a “troublemaker”Â
China Think Tank: Shouldn’t Over stride In Yuan Liberalization – People’s DailyÂ
China’s Yuan Needs Bigger Role In Commodities Trading – Report
China’s yuan is at equilibrium level – People’s Daily
China April HSBC services PMI at 6-mth high of 54.1
Another quiet day as we hit the Final day of Golden week with several countries still missing from the market notably the Tokyo market, Euro’s an 18 tic range moving from down to 1.3144 before being helped higher with comments in Australia, once we had moved past that we started again to drift. GBP remained slightly more buoyant than the Euro moving from the close up to the 1.6190 level pushing through and peaking at 1.6194. AUD took some of the commentary being rolled out rather well and we saw a few buyers appearing midway through the session faking it up from its then lows 1.0252 to above the 1.0275 level, however all it did was set it up for more sellers willing to sell any rally towards 1.0300. Expectations of inflation rising is decreasing and reading between the uncertainty I’d be more worried about stagflation appearing if China’s business figures continue to slide. USDJPY 80.13/28 about calls it with Golden week still on going and the Japanese taking a long weekend it was a dull pairing to pay attention to.
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Today’s dataÂ
Consensus                             Previous Â
08:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Services Apr (F) C 47.9 |Â P 47.9Â Â
09:00   EUR    Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar C 0.00% | P 0.10%      Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Apr C 165K | P 120KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr C 8.20% | P 8.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Ivey PMI Apr C 60.8 | P 63.5Â Â Â Â Â
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Ranges as of 6am London timeÂ
Bid                         Offer                     High                      Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.187Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.198Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.28Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.133
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31488 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31503 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31625 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31443
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.436 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.463 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.54Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.336
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02540 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02560 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0278Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.025
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79990 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80020 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.802Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7995
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98810 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98820 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9887Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9878
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20155 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20159 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20168 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2014
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91364 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91380 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9141Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91299
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61840 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61870 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6193Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6179
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81235 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81250 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8128Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8122
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Successful trading!
Andy Harrison, Night Risk Manager | [email protected]