Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.867Â | EURUSD 1.3007 | EURJPY 103.884Â | AUDUSD 1.01211Â | NZDUSD 0.78856Â | USDCAD 0.99877Â | EURCHF 1.20124Â | USDCHF 0.9235Â | GBPUSD 1.61595Â | EURGBP 0.80493
Harry Hindsight
Continued uncertainty for Greece, France willing to gamble by ditching austerity in favour of growth in a shrinking market? It would seem the wheels are wobbling again, what’s been 3mths. Greece sold €1.3bln of 6months at a rate of 4.69% higher than previous obviously. Euro’s moved in a steady decline from Asia’s highs of 1.3060 steadily down into mid NYK to 1.2985 area before finding some support and attempting a rise a rally above 1.3030 before running into more sellers and falling on the close down to the 1.3000 area again. Not quite the same story in Cable market did decline somewhat from above 1.6190 falling to 1.6125, however, safe haven buying seemed to move into the market and apart from the occasional dips providing opportunities for more buyers to get on it moved back above the 1.6155 and stayed there into the close. AUD is caught by its own worries and European worries are not helping the whole situation moving from the 1.0220 area during Asia the decline increased into early Europe to just above 1.0120 and the NYK session sold it further triggering stop losses below 1.0100 to dip to 1.0090 before recovering slightly for the run into the close. USDJPY stuck to a 35 tic range for the whole 24hrs, moving from the 80.06 highs in Asia dropping to 79.72 in London before recovering to trade pretty much 75/85 for most of the NYK session safe haven buying was seen as the market became risk averse, but suggestion of large bids appearing in the 79.50/60 area keeping the market from declining to far.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus=C | Previous=P | Revised=RÂ
GBPÂ Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr A 1.30% | C 1.60% | P 1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Apr A -19.00% | C -11.00% | P -10.00% | R -11.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Mar A -1.59B | C -1.37B | P -0.48B | R -0.75B
EURÂ Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Mar A 2.80%Â | C 0.80% | P -1.30% | R -0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Housing Starts Apr A 245K | C 205.0K | P 215.6KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
23:01Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Apr A -3.30% | C 0.60% | P 1.30%Â Â
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JPY
Topside: 80.20-40 (series of light-medium stops), 80.50-70 (light offers), 81.30-50 (light offers)
Downside: 79.60-70 (decent 2-way, light stop bias), 79.50-60 (medium-large buyers) 79.25-45 (medium and weak stop sellers), 78.90-79.20 (light bids)
EUR
Topside: 1.3040-60 (light offers), 1.3070-1.3090 (medium-large stop buyers), 1.3095-1.3115 (light offers)
Downside: 1.2960-90 (medium bids), 1.2920-40 (medium stop sellers), 1.2880-1.2900 (light stops)
EURJPY
Topside: 104.25-45 (light 2-way), 104.50-70 (medium stop buyers), 105.00-30 (light stop buyers)
Downside: 103.05-25 (medium bids), 102.80-103.00 (light-medium stop sellers), 102.50-70 (light bids) AUD
Topside: 1.0135-55 (light offers), 1.0180-1.0200 (light offers), 1.0220-40 (series of light stops)
Downside: 1.0060-90 (light-medium stop sellers), 1.0005-25 (medium bids)
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China considers delay of key party congress; sources, almost as dominant as the European worries, why remains to be seen it’s not as if they’ll be announce a decline into negative GDP, the story actually hit during the NYK market but the lemmings only picked it up in Asia, and off the cliff we went. Euro’s and AUD moved simultaneously with Euro’s moving through 1.3000 easily and eventually penetrating the lows of yesterday to move and hover between 1.2965/75 for the last 3hrs before London moves in, option barriers been talked of about with 1.2950 being highlighted and holding the market for the moment. But early Asian flows were rather chunky for the early part of the session. GBP made steady losses but with barely a 40 tic range moving down from the 1.6160 level down to 1.6128 before finding a little support in the area. The mover of the day already on the back foot a move below 1.0100 after the close found quiet support in the mid 1.0090’s but the China old news put paid to it and the market moved quickly down to the mid 1.0060’s and has slowly moved lower over the session. USDJPY if the Tokyo market wasn’t the dominant centre in Asia I don’t think I’d put pen to paper on the pair, the big move came just before Tokyo lunch when the market moved from 79.89 to 79.73, looks impressive on the chart if you don’t read the numbers, otherwise it’s been very quiet in the pair, the bids remain intact just below the lows.
CNY:
China May Delay Party Congress Reshuffling Leadership
China State Construction says in $2 bln deal with UAE’s Aabar
China Central Bank Gauges Demand For Reverse Repos – Sources
JPY:
Japan April foreign reserves rise to $1.290 trln
AUD:
Gillard Says Budget Gives RBA Maximum Room to Move on Rates
Australia Opposition Lawmaker Joyce Warns On Debt Ceiling
RBNZ’S Bollard: NZ Financial System Remains Vulnerable To Global Instability
NZD:
NZ Govt needs to return to budget surplus – RBNZ
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Today’s data
Consensus = C                            Previous  = P
5:00Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Leading Index Mar (P) A 96.9 | P 96.3Â Â Â Â
6:00Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Mar A 13.4B | P 13.6BÂ Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Mar A 0.60% | P 0.90%Â Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 2.0M | P 2.8M
Ranges as of 6am London time
               Bid                      Offer                    High                   Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.750Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.758Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.947Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.72
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29680Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29690Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3008Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2965
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.420Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.438Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.935Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.4
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00550Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00560Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0116Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0054
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78470Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78510Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7879Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7842
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00210Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00230Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0023Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9984
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20103Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20116Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.201
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92603Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92618Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9263Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9235
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61310Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61340Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6159Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6129
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80380 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80395Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.805Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8035
good luck and happy tradingÂ
Andy