Daily FX Rambles

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

USDJPY 79.918 | EURUSD 1.29367 | EURJPY 103.395 | AUDUSD 1.00818 | NZDUSD 0.7864 | USDCAD 1.00202 | EURCHF 1.20119 | USDCHF 0.92849 | GBPUSD 1.61461 | EURGBP 0.80124 

Harry Hindsight

Moving out of Asia and into the London session the market began to move higher on the back of French manufacturing numbers, however it was short lived as Spain effectively took over Bankia SA one of the country’s larger banks Euro’s moved from its highs above 1.2960 back down to the low 1.2920’s before bouncing just before the NYK open trading above 1.2973 with no major upsets in the US figures Euro’s went into a steady decline into the close. GBP found itself struggling during the early part of London although most of the figures were in line and the Manufacturing were better than expected the market was sold off as EUR/GBP headed higher, however, once we moved to the NYK session the markets reversed both in the legs and the EUR/GBP cross and cable moved from its lows of 1.6090 to touch above the 1.6180 level a few times before settling into a steady decline back to 1.6140 into the close. AUD after a surprising reaction to unemployment figures Touching 1.0120 in Asia, sentiment continued and the market traded 1.0080/1.0140 right the way through London and NYK finishing on the weak side. USDJPY bids 79.60/65 kept the market alive moving between 79.66/75 from the start of Asia all the way through till just after the NYK opening, USDJPY seemed to take comfort in the U.S. figures moving strongly on the data back above the 79.90 level for a few attempts to breech 80.00 into the close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus=C | Previous=P | Revised=R 

22:30    NZD     Business Manufacturing Index Apr A 48 | C 54.5 | P 53.8

23:50    JPY      Current Account Balance (JPY) Mar A 0.79T | C   0.65T | P 0.85T | R 0.86T

01:30    AUD     Employment Change Apr A 15.5K | C -5.0K | P 44.0K | R 37.6K

01:30    AUD     Unemployment Rate Apr A 4.90% | C 5.30% I 5.20%      

03:00    CNY     Trade Balance (USD) Apr A $18.42B | C $7.93B | P $5.35B         

05:00    JPY      Eco Watchers Survey: Current Apr A 50.9 | C 52.5 | P 51.8         

08:30    GBP     Industrial Production M/M Mar A -0.30% | C -0.30% | P 0.40%     

08:30    GBP     Industrial Production Y/Y Mar A -2.60% | C -2.60% | P -2.30%    

08:30    GBP     Manufacturing Production M/M Mar A 0.90% | C 0.50% | P -1.00% | R -1.10%

08:30    GBP     Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar A -0.90% | C -1.30% | P -1.40% | R -1.50%

11:00    GBP     BoE Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%           

11:00    GBP     BoE Asset Purchase Target (GBP) A 325B | C 325B | P 325B     

12:30    CAD     New Housing Price Index M/M Mar A 0.30% | C   0.10% | P 0.30%           

12:30    CAD     International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Mar A 0.4B | C 0.55B | P 0.29B    

12:30    USD     Import Price Index M/M Apr A -0.50% | C -0.20% | P 1.30%        

12:30    USD     Trade Balance Mar A -51.8B | C -$50.0B | P -$46.0B       

12:30    USD     Initial Jobless Claims A 367K | C 370K | P 365K | R368K

14:30    USD     Natural Gas Storage A 30B | C 33B | P 28B        

18:00    USD     Monthly Budget Statement Apr A 30.0B | P -198.2B       

 

For today

USDJPY
Topside : 80.00-80.30 (medium buy stops) 80.40-80.70 (light offers) 80.80-81.10 (light offers) 
Downside : 79.50-79.80 (light bids) 79.00-79.30 (mixed net net light bids) 78.50-78.80 (decent bids)

EURUSD
Topside : 1.2950-1.2980 (light buy stops) 1.3000-1.3030 (medium buy stops) 1.3050-1.3080 (light offers)
Downside : 1.2880-1.2910 (decent sell stops) 1.2830-1.2860 (light sell stops) 1.2770-1.2800 (decent sell stops) 

EURJPY
Topside : 103.70-104.00 (medium buy stops) 104.10-104.40 (light offers)
Downside : 102.80-103.10 (light sell stops) 102.40-102.70 (light bids) 102.00-102.30 (light bids)

AUDUSD:

 Topside: 1.0100-1.0130 (light buy stops) 1.0150-1.0180 (medium buy stops) 1.0190-1.0220 (medium offers) 
Downside : 1.0020-1.0050 (medium sell stops) 0.9970-1.0000 (medium sell stops)  

23:50    JPY      Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Apr A 2.60% | C 2.90% | P 3.00%         

1:30      CNY     CPI Y/Y Apr A 3.40% | C 3.40% | P 3.60%         

1:30      CNY     PPI Y/Y Apr A -0.70% | C -0.50% | P -0.30%      

CNY:

China April CPI Up 3.4%; In Line With Expectations

China May Up Investments Instead of An RRR Cut – ADB

EUR:

Bundesbank: no risk of out-of-control inflation-paper

JPY:

BOJ revises rules for its foreign-asset management

AUD:

Australia’s ANZ cuts variable mortgage rate by 37 bps

NZD:

New Zealand April Food Price Index Eases 0.1% Versus March

GBP:

UK consumer morale takes a knock in April Nationwide

 

 

A very quiet day across the board the biggest mover being the AUD however, Chinese numbers were uninspiring and the global slowdown seems to be continuing with Asia’s runaway economy’s slowing and suffering more from the European fallout. AUD traded in a fairly wide 40 tic range bouncing of the low 1.0040’s to move to the 1.0080’s only to collapse back again and then remain under pressure for the remainder of the day. Sell stops in the AUD through parity are beginning to build. EUR, China figures seem to effect the Euro more than anything but it could have been just the timing as early European media run doom and gloom stories for the day from businesses needing trillions of infusions to Hollande’s asserts Britain should pay more to prop up the Socialist governments of Europe, whatever the real story Euro’s dropped off from the 1.2940 level to attempt a break of 1.29000 failing at 1.2905, the most likely scenario was an attempt to push through the level take out option barriers and trigger stop losses. GBP moved steadily lower over the session from the opening area of 1.6150 down towards 1.6110 with very little interest in the market. USDJPY stayed in a tight band making highs on the fixing demand before slipping from the 79.98 level back to 79.80 into the close.

 

Today’s data

Consensus = C                              Previous  = P

5:30      CNY     Industrial Production Y/Y Apr A 12.10% | P 11.90%        

5:30      CNY     Fixed Assets Inv YTD/Y Apr A 20.40% | P 20.90%         

5:30      CNY     Retail Sales Y/Y Apr A 15.10% | P 15.20%        

6:00      EUR     German CPI M/M Apr A 0.10% | P 0.10%           

6:00      EUR     German CPI Y/Y Apr A 2.00% | P 2.00%

8:30      GBP     PPI Input M/M Apr A -0.90% | P 1.90%  

8:30      GBP     PPI Input Y/Y Apr A 2.10% | P 5.80%    

8:30      GBP     PPI Output M/M Apr A 0.40% | P 0.60%

8:30      GBP     PPI Output Y/Y Apr A 2.90% | P 3.60%  

8:30      GBP     PPI Output Core Y/Y Apr A 1.90% | P 2.50%     

12:30    CAD     Net Change in Employment Apr A 10.0K | P 82.3K         

12:30    CAD     Unemployment Rate Apr A 7.30% | P 7.20%      

12:30    USD     PPI M/M Apr A 0.00% | P 0.00%           

12:30    USD     PPI Y/Y Apr A 2.10% | P 2.80%

12:30    USD     PPI Core M/M Apr A 0.20% | P 0.30%   

12:30    USD     PPI Core Y/Y Apr A 2.80% | P 2.90%    

13:55    USD     U. of Michigan Confidence May (P) A 76.4 | P 76.4        

Ranges as of 6am London time

                              Bid                      Offer                      High                       Low

USD/JPY               79.831                   79.836                    79.988                   79.82

EUR/USD              1.29150                   1.29158                1.2944                   1.2905

EUR/JPY              103.102                   103.115                 103.46                   103.078

AUD/USD            1.00450                     1.00460                1.0083                   1.0043

NZD/USD             0.78320                    0.78340                 0.7854                   0.7828

USD/CAD             1.00430                   1.00450                 1.0045                   1.0026

EUR/CHF              1.20114                  1.20124                 1. 2013                  1.20105

USD/CHF             0.92993                   0.93016                 0.9307                   0.92781

GBP/USD             1.61150                  1.61180                 1.6143                   1.6114

EUR/GBP             0.80125                  0.80150                 0.80185                 0.7995

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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