Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 80.329 | EURUSD 1.27167 | EURJPY 102.15 | AUDUSD 0.99136 | NZDUSD 0.76505 | USDCAD 1.0122 | EURCHF 1.20107 | USDCHF 0.94448 | GBPUSD 1.59104 | EURGBP 0.79924
Â
Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: Late Asia early London took out 1.2700 level but failed several times at the 1.2680 level suggesting that’s where barriers really are, once it failed there a decent 5yr bond auction in France turned the market with bringing yields down to 1.72% from a previous 1.83% and the Euro began to recover some of the overnight losses, Eurozone CPI numbers came in with only the core above expectations and the market in Euro’s moved back above 1.2700 strongly topping above 1.2735, with no further negative news on the situation with Greece the market held and started to move up before NYK opened and continued strongly after the opening pushing above 1.2750 several times over the next 3hrs, before seeing strong selling just before the close in London from there it trade sideways before suffering the same fate into the run to the close in NYK testing back to the 1.2702.
·        GBP: Held its levels moving into London have been sold off during Asia to the 1.5930/35 levels with stops close to the downside however once London had initially moved the market higher the BoE inflation report seemed to scare the market and the market dropped rapidly lower taking out stops and forcing the Cable through 1.5900 for a brief period the rest of the day was a slow recovery moving back above 1.5950 before trading in a slowly declining market into the close.
·        AUD: Continued its declines during Asia however investors seemed inclined to like the 0.98 handle and were willing to buy it and the market started to move up during early London, the NYK market was no different and the steady move higher topped out above the 0.9960 level before finding sellers however that level once reached was never touched again as renewed selling in the futures market and sellers on the London close halted any further gains, the market moved slowly back towards the 0.9900 level as we moved into the NYK close tagging along with the Euro late selloff.
·        JPY: Continued its move higher during London as offers thinned out from Japanese importers, moving to a high of 80.55 where a new set of hedges sat waiting, NYK seemed reluctant to take it any higher and retail sellers dominated the market selling back to the 80.25/30 level holding for the most part into the close in NYK.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Mar A -2.80% | C -3.30% | P 4.80% | R 2.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Mar A -0.60% | C -0.30% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Sentiment May A 0.80% | P Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.60%Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Apr A -13.7K | C 4.9K | P 3.6KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Mar A 8.20% | C 8.30% | P 8.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Apr A 2.60% | C 2.60% | P 2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Apr A 1.60% | C 1.50% | P 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CHF       ZEW Expectations May A -4 | P                2.1        Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Mar A 4.3B | C 4.3B | P Â Â 3.7B | R 4.0B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Mar A 1.90% | C 0.50% | P -0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Apr A 717K | C 678K | P Â 654KÂ Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Apr A 715K | C 735K | P 747KÂ Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Apr A 1.10% | C 0.50% | P 0.00%Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Apr A 79.20% | C 78.90% | P 78.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 2.1M | C 1.5M | P 3.7M Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY
Topside : 80.55-80.80 (light buy stops) 80.00-81.00 (light offers) 81.20 (light offers) 81.30-81.60 (light offers)
Downside : 79.80-80.10 (light sell stops) 79.40-79.70 (medium bids) 79.00-79.30 (decent sell stops)
EURUSD
Topside : 1.2750-1.2770 (decent offers) 1.2780 (medium offers) 1.2790-1.2820 (light buy stops) 1.2830-1.2860 (light offers)Â
Downside : 1.2680 (bids) 1.2650-1.2680 (medium sell stops) 1.2620-1.2650 (light sell stops) 1.2580-1.2610 (mixed net medium sell stops)Â
EURJPY
Topside : 102.50-102.80 (light offers) 102.90-103.20 (light buy stops)
Downside : 101.50-101.80 (decent sell stops) 101.00-101.30 (medium bids)Â AUDUSD
Topside : 0.9930-0.9960 (light offers) 1.0000-1.0030 (light offers) 1.0050-1.0080 (medium buy stops)
Downside : 0.9870-0.9900 (light bids) 0.9820-0.9850 (medium sell stops) 0.9780-0.9810 (medium bids)
Â
EUR: With most of the negativity out of the way and everyone now sitting for the next developments, EUR found time to gasp and Asia decided to begin some cautious buying whether they believe it’s with the risk remains to be seen but one suspects natural flow from real money for the moment has taken over and the Euro was able to recover the pre-close lows in NYK and move to the 1.2750 level in the first few hours and then it’s been sideways with a 30/50 range for the remainder of the session.
GBP: Having moved down yesterday on the BoE inflation report Cable has been unable to step away from the 1.5900 level, while Euro put in a healthy 50 tic move up Cable struggled to move or hold a 30 tic gain and generally looks weak, whether the inflation or the fact that BoE governor believes the fallout in Europe will overwhelm the UK economy remains to be seen but without a concerted move back above 1.5990 both Cable and the EURGBP are likely to be dominated by any other currency apart from Sterling.
AUD: the Ozzie rise over the past 12hrs now seems to be tempered by the cautionary inflation expectations while not an overly important number it can sometimes be fairly accurate but in this case it confirms what has already been reported suggesting that the chances of another cut by the RBA may be closer and we await numbers to see if a slowdown is materialising in earnest, in the meantime Oz topped out at the 0.9954 level before drifting off back into a 30/40 range for the balance of the session.
JPY: Â Moved up during the early part of the session pushing towards the 80.40 level but as figures for provisional GDP appeared in the market the market saw JPY strengthen slightly although they were broadly in line with expectations, moving back to the mid 80.20’s as we move towards London. Â
JPY:
Japan Jan-Mar GDP Grows Annualized 4.1% On Back Of Domestic Demand
Japan Post Insurance expects lower JGB investment volume in 2012/13
Japan PM keeps up pressure on BOJ in deflation fight
Japan Furukawa: No Change In Govt Stance To Take Bold Steps Vs. Excessive Yen Moves
Japan government to mull upgrade in economic view media
Japan Furukawa: Japan economy continuing in uptrend
Japan revised March industrial output up 1.3 pct m/m
USD/JPY:
U.S. court orders Japan bank to freeze transactions with Iran media
KRW:
North Korea resumes work on nuclear reactor-report
SGD:
Singapore Revised 1Q GDP Up 10.0% Adjusted On Quarter, Annualized
Singapore April Non-Oil Exports +8.3% on Year; +5.2% Expected
CNY/TWD:
China banking regulator delays meeting with Taiwan
CNY:
China Activist Chen To Get Passport Within 15 Days
AUD:
Australia Consumer Inflation Gauge -0.2 Percentage Points In May -MI
Ex-RBA Policy Maker Says Europe To Derail Australia Budget
NZD:
New Zealand 1Q Producer Input Prices +0.3% Vs 4Q
New Zealand job ads fall in April – ANZ survey
NZ consumer confidence steady in May – ANZ survey
22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI – Inputs Q/Q Q1 A 0.30% | C 0.00% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI – Outputs Q/Q Q1 A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) A 1.00% | C 0.90% | P Â Â -0.20%Â
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 (P) A -1.20% | C -1.40% | P -1.80%Â
1:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation May A 3.10% | P 3.30%
4:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Mar (F) A 1.30% | C 1.10% | P 1.00%
Â
Today’s data
Consensus = C                            Previous = P
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Mar C 9.34B | P 12.49BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M Mar C 0.40% | P 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims C Â Â 375K | P 367KÂ Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey May C 12 | P 8.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Apr C 0.10% | P 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage C 25B | P 30BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
               High | Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.395 | 80.25
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27495 | 1.2712
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 102.389 | 102.121
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9954 | 0.9911
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7677 | 0.7642
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0126 | 1.011
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20125 | 1.20102
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9448 | 0.9421
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5933 | 1.5912
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8008 | 0.7992
Â