Daily FX Rambles

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

USDJPY 79.305 | EURUSD 1.28176 | EURJPY 101.641 | AUDUSD 0.99166 | NZDUSD 0.76258 | USDCAD 1.01726 | EURCHF 1.20125 | USDCHF 0.93726 | GBPUSD 1.5834 | EURGBP 0.80947 

 

Harry Hindsight

·         EUR: Some touchy feely stuff between France and Britain who agree Eurobonds are the way forward to prevent the crisis getting any deeper but as can be seen by the Euro movement on a quiet data day it did nothing as we wait for the next tidbit to be thrown out in the open, Euro’s peaked during Asia above 1.2800 and towards the close of NYK it attempted the same move, with Stops presumed to be above the 1.2830 level someone failed to get them out of the way, the lows were a similar story as the market tried to take the stops below 1.2720 and failed while we’ve seen an 80 tic range for the day, it looks like it’s been a snooze fest.

·         GBP: Now here’s a pair that was a day traders favourite having pushed up to above 1.5830 during Asia, data released during Asia did nothing but as London came in they didn’t like the number and sold off Cable moving back below 1.5800 briefly as en accord (fancy that) took it back above 1.5830 short lived spike and the rest of the day played out in a similar way before rallying into the close to touch 1.5840, EURGBP continues to rally and a lot of Cables movement during the day can be put on the cross trading however, the pair made new highs trading to a whisker below 0.8100.

·         AUD: managed to keep steady for most of the day trading from the Asian lows just above 0.9800 and then ranging 0.9820/70 for most of the day before beginning a push just after London close to end the day attempting the 0.9920 level.

·         JPY: Having gapped higher on the opening we stayed in the usual tight range as focus continues to hold on Europe, 7910/25, London forced it higher in the early doors moving the range up to 79.25/45 on the wide and narrowing down later to 79.25/35 AUDJPY seemed to be the active pairing during the rallies but a lack of interest would really denigrate this currency to no better than a minor pairing. Verbal intervention continues but the market is inured to them.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

GBP     Rightmove House Prices M/M May A 0.00% | P 2.90%  

JPY      All Industry Activity Index M/M Mar A -0.30% | C             -0.10% | P -0.10%         

CHF      SECO Consumer Confidence Apr A -8 | C -15 | P -19      

For today

USDJPY
Topside : 79.70-79.90 (medium offers) 80.10-80.40 (mixed) 80.50-80.80 (light offers) 81.00-81.30 (light offers)
Downside : 78.70-78.90 (medium sell stops) 78.40-78.70 (decent bids) 78.00-78.30 (medium sell stops)  EURUSD
Topside : 1.2830-1.2840 (weak buy Stops) 1.2840-1.2860 (medium offers) 1.2870-1.2900 (mixed net light buy stops) 1.2920-1.2950 (light offers) 
Downside : 1.2770-1.2780 (light bids) 1.2730-1.2760 (medium sell stops) 1.2690-1.2720 (light sell stops) 

EURJPY
Topside : Nothing much to mention 
Downside : 101.00-101.30 (light bids) 100.50-100.70 (medium sell stops) 100.00-100.30 (medium sell stops) AUDUSD
Topside : 0.9920-0.9950 (light offers) 0.9970-1.0000 (light buy stops) 
Downside : 0.9850-0.9880 (light bids) 0.9800-0.9830 (medium sell stops) 

 

·         EUR: With very little on boards the market has been in a hurry up and wait, and that’s all we’ll probably get out of tomorrows EU Summit, in the meantime NYK closed with a rush to try and take out suspected stops above 1.2830 it failed into the close and since then it’s been a steady drift lower with weak stops expected to be placed just below 1.2780 we found support just in front a common occurrence in Asia as they do love their 80’s, for the moment though another dull day for the scalpers.

·         GBP: Cable held its own in a quiet session trading 1.5820/30 for the first part of the session, then we saw some selling of EUR/GBP from small funds and with EUR/USD selling it fitted with the pattern small being the operative word however GBP held up for the most part moving down steadily with the Euro and holding around the 1.5810 level with the PSBR and CPI numbers for the day movement is going to be slight until that point.

·         AUD: Early trading was quiet after the NYK movement was quiet and a steady push higher moving just above 0.9920 before Euro’s broke down through the figure at this point it’s difficult to work out which was leading which, but AUD moved lower and pushed quickly below 0.9890 setting the low of the range but from then on its stayed pretty close to the 0.9900 level.

·         JPY: 79.26/79.44 says it all really, the high was made on Asian CB buying CAD/JPY through the legs but apart from that it’s been quieter than previous days with no flow standing out.

JPY:

Japan Azumi: Expect BOJ To Act Appropriately At Proper Time

Japan Remains World’s Largest Creditor Nation In 2011 – MOF

CNH:

HKMA Further Relaxes Banks’ Offshore Yuan Trading Restriction

CNY:

China to fast track infrastructure investments paper

China to expand value-added tax in weeks-paper

EUR:

France Fin Min: Crisis Could Spread Following Greece Exit

NZD: RBNZ 2Q Survey: Firms See 1-Year Ahead CPI +2.00% Vs +2.24% In 1Q

NZ’s Fonterra cuts 2012/13 forecast as prices tumble

Fonterra CEO: Expect First Sign Of Recovery In Dairy Prices In August-September

 

Today’s data

Consensus = C                              Previous = P

08:30    GBP     Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Apr C -22.8B | P 15.9B         

08:30    GBP     CPI M/M Apr C 0.60% | P 0.30%           

08:30    GBP     CPI Y/Y Apr C 3.10% | P 3.50%

08:30    GBP     Core CPI Y/Y Apr C 2.00% | P 2.50%    

08:30    GBP     RPI M/M Apr C 0.60% | P 0.40%           

08:30    GBP     RPI Y/Y Apr C 3.40% | P 3.60%

14:00    EUR     Eurozone Consumer Confidence May (A) C -20.5 | P -19.9          

14:00    USD     Existing Home Sales Apr C 4.60M | P 4.48M                      

 

 

 

Ranges as of 6am London time

                             High | Low

USD/JPY             79.444 | 79.27

EUR/USD             1.282 | 1.27821

EUR/JPY             101.77 | 101.446

AUD/USD             0.9922 | 0.989

NZD/USD             0.7674 | 0.7648

USD/CAD             1.0184 | 1.0161

EUR/CHF             1.2013 | 1.20093

USD/CHF             0.93944 | 0.9371

GBP/USD            1.5832 | 1.5811

EUR/GBP            0.8098 | 0.80825

 

 

Good luck and have a good weekend

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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