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Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

Harry Hindsight

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EUR: Euro’s managed to hold 1bove 1.2620 for the most part through London session trading 1.2660/80 through Asia until the Eurozone current account number set the market for a drop trading just below 1.2620 which was suspected as an option barrier, a good number like that should have had the market moving the other way however, that’s the only event around the fall, we moved steadily upwards reaching back above the resistance level 1.2680 on talks between Italy and France over the Eurobond issue that German is reluctant to enter into, not surprising as the bonds would be wrote on German profits seen as no one else makes any. Institutional funds continue to sell into rallies and with chatter around the EU summit beginning to flow the market took a big turn down whether that was solely the case remains to be seen as again option barriers at 1.2600 remained and were quickly taken out taking the market into new yearly lows 1.2545 before finding anyone willing to buy, there was a token bounce back to 1.2600 but failure there had the market drift back off to 1.2680 level.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBP: CBI number were uninspired but the Cable had already moved lower with the initial Euro selling, touching below 1.5680 but fresh selling of EUR/GBP helped to move the Sterling higher in the face of EUR selling but even the minor rally didn’t last to long before the drag from Euro pulled the Cable down with it to again touch below 1.5680 before stabilising into the close.

Â·Â Â Â Â AUD: Having come so far over the past few weeks with China and Europe weighting on the Oz today was really no different only the size of moves seems to be subdued in the London and NYK market, having broken below 0.9800 it held on the 97 handle for most of the day until the Euro made its move below 1.2600 even so the drag was limited and we managed to briefly dip below 0.9700 before rallying for the close to the previous 0.9760 holding area from London.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY: Having dropped during the Asian session it stayed into a tight range for the remainder of the day holding 79.25/79.55 on the wide, at current levels of the Euro we can expect more verbal intervention as long as EURJPY remains below 100.

Yesterday’s premiership results

ActualÂ = AÂ |Â Consensus = CÂ |Â Previous = PÂ |Â Revised = RÂ

23:50Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Apr A -0.48T | C -0.60T | P -0.62TÂ Â Â Â Â

00:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index Mar A 0.20% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

00:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%

03:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Rate Decision A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%Â Â Â

08:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Mar A 9.1B | C 3.4B | P -1.3B | R -1.2B

08:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Minutes A 0—0â€”9 | C 0—0â€”9 | P 0—0—9Â Â Â Â Â

10:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders May A -17 | C -11 | P -8

12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators M/M Apr A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Mar A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Mar A 0.10% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â

14:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Mar A 1.80% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

14:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Apr A 343K | C 335K | P 328KÂ Â

14:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 0.9M | C 0.8M | P 2.1M Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

For today

JPY
Topside: 79.80-80.10 (light staggered offers), 80.50-70 (light 2-way), 80.80-81.00 (light offers)
Downside: 79.00-20 (medium 2-way, light stop bias), 78.70-90 (light stops), 78.30-50 (medium stops)EUR
Topside: 1.2630-45 (everyone speaks of light stops), 1.2685-1.2715 (light offers), 1.2735-55 (medium offers)
Downside: 1.2525-50 (light bids), 1.2475-95 (series of medium stops), 1.2445-65 (light-medium stops)

EURJPY
Topside: 100.50-70 (light offers), 101.10-30 (light offers), 101.90-102.10 (light stop buyers)
Downside: 99.00-20 (medium-light bids), 98.75-95 (light stops), 98.20-40 (medium stops)AUD
Topside: 0.9780-0.9800 (medium offers), 0.9860-80 (light offers), 0.9905-25 (light stops)
Downside: 0.9710-30 (light-medium stops), 0.9670-90 (2-way interest, medium stop bias), 0.9630-50 (light stops)

22:45Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Apr A 355M | C 400M | P 134M | R 186M

2:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMIÂ A 48.7 | P 49.3Â Â

EUR:

EU urges Greece to stay in euro, but plans for possible exit

Germany’s Merkel: We Want Greece To Remain In Euro Zone

ECB’s Draghi says euro zone needs fiscal union for joint bonds

CNY:

HSBC Preliminary China May PMI 48.7 Vs Final April PMI 49.3

China Should Keep Cutting Reserve Ratio To Boost Money Supply – Paper

S&P, Moody’s Warn Of Vulnerability In China Property Sector

JPY:

Japan Fin Min Azumi: Caution Prevailing In Global Markets

NZD:

NZ April Goods Trade Surplus NZ$355M; Consensus Surplus NZ$475M

NZ sticks to surplus plan, tight budget

S&P: Could Lower Rating If NZ External Position Continues To Deteriorate

Â·Â Â Â Â EUR: A rock and a hard place, Euro’s moved up from the opening but found the Swiss selling hard on the rally as more and more banks clear out risk and funds cut or open more shorts, they chased it back down to the 1.2560 level but it’s rumoured that more option barriers are sat around the 1.2500 level and everyone I talk to mention stops above 1.2630 JPY crosses seemed to be in focus mainly EUR/JPY buying, possibly retail Japanese setting positions as verbal intervention. In the meantime we trade quietly and a tight range more or less 1.2570/80 running into London.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBP: A 22tic range seems to be it moving independently of the Euro but then trading would be an operative word. EUR/GBP attempted another move down through 0.8000 but failed but with a similar range to Cable this would have been the day traders market.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUD: was looking to move up in the early part of the session before the HSBC Flash, again confirming falling numbers for manufacturing the Oz took it badly falling back from its highs of 0.9770 to 0.9725 on the figure before recovering and moving into a day traders dream, ranging 0.9738/65 over the balance of the session.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY: BoJ minutes gave no surprises and EURJPY buying had little impact as the market sits in a very tight range for the day.

Today’s data

ConsensusÂ = CÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PreviousÂ = P

06:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) C 0.50% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

06:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Apr C 1.90B | P 1.69BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

07:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French PMI Manufacturing May (P) C 47 | P 46.9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

07:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French PMI Services ay (P) C 45.8 | P 45.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

07:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PMI Manufacturing May (A) C 47 | P 46.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

07:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PMI Services May (A) C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 52 | P 52.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

08:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate May C 109.4 | P 109.9Â Â Â Â Â

08:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment May C 117.1 | P 117.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

08:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations May A 102 | P 102.7

08:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Manufacturing May (A) C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 46 | P 45.9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

08:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Services May (A) C 46.7 | P 46.9Â Â

08:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Loans for House Purchase Apr C 32.3K | P 31.9KÂ Â Â Â Â Â

08:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) C -0.20% | P -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

08:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q1 (P) C 0.00% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

08:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Mar C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Apr C 0.50% | P -4.20%Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Apr C 1.00% | P -1.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims C 368K | P 370KÂ Â Â Â Â Â

14:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage C 77B | P 61BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

Ranges as of 6am London time

HighÂ | Low

USD/JPY Â Â Â Â Â 79.57 | 79.415

EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â 1.2600 | 1.2555

EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â 100.16 | 99.73

AUD/USDÂ Â Â 0.9770 | 0.9725

NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â 0.7529 | 0.7486

USD/CADÂ Â Â Â 1.0263 | 1.0239

EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â 1.2011 | 1.20098

USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â 0.95648 | 0.95329

GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â 1.5700 | 1.5675

EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â 0.8024 | 0.801

Good luck

Andy

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