Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 83.644 | EURUSD 1.30775 | EURJPY 109.389 | AUDUSD 1.05277 | NZDUSD 0.84319 | USDCAD 0.98472 | EURCHF 1.20791 | USDCHF 0.92363 | GBPUSD 1.6112 | EURGBP 0.81167 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: The Euro dipped in early Asia moving to just above the 1.3055 level from the opening at 1.3075 however, the move lower was short lived and we saw the market bounce back on an announcement that FinMins had come an agreement on bank supervision, we moved quickly to trade above the 1.3090 area pre London, and while London saw the same news was less inclined to follow through with the buying and we started to move sharply lower pausing for the ECB bullet only to find little to cheer and continue lower touching below 1.3045 before the NYK market opened and sellers of USD’s appeared in earnest, with mixed numbers coming out of the US we saw the Euro’s moving steadily higher again to touch the 1.3090, and one suspects an option barrier around the 1.3100 level providing the resistance as we moved off the level again a little sharply to trade around the 1.3075 area into the close. House Speaker John Boehner made comments that neither side was any closer to a compromise.
·        GBP: Cable had a quiet session overall with a tight range compared to some, we moved particularly quietly in Asia moving from the opening 1.6145 to around 1.6125 and back again before the London session moved in we saw EURGBP buying as the Euro strengthened but Cable remained fairly static until the US data and the Boehner comments, we made highs from that point moving from the 1.6110 low area to touch above 1.6150 level, late in the session S&P made a statement that the UK had moved to a negative watch on the back of poor growth and while that seems fair enough one wonders if it will be sufficient for the finger waggers in Europe.
·        JPY: A good day for the USDJPY as it strengthened during Asia on the back of LDP expectations for the election moving from the opening 83.20 area to move to above 83.60 before Tokyo lunch, we held the levels until early London when we was the market in EURJPY sold off with the general sale of Euro’s triggering mine stops in the crosses and taking USDJPY down to 83.25 before we moved into NYK were we saw a steady climb back to the highs.Â
·        AUD: Asia was again dominated by Gamma players as they hedged their option risk backwards and forwards however, there was a general slow rise to above the 1.0560 area in the later part of Asia and early London before the drag of Euro’s took it to below the starting 1.0550 area touching below 1.0540 before starting to rise again pre NYK, however once the US data and Boehner comments hit we went contrary to the market and dropped 50 tics, one suspects it’s a coincidence and more likely to have been some movement in the Futures market however, we dropped from 1.0560 to 1.0510 over the period of a couple of hours before settling into the 1.0525 range into the close.Â
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Nov A 48.8 | C 50.5 | P 50.3
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Dec A 1.80% | P 2.20%Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Nov A 0.00% | C -0.30% | P -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Oct A 0.10% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Nov A -0.80% | C -0.50% | P -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Nov A 1.50% | C 1.80% | P 2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Nov A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Nov A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.10%Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Nov A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P -0.30%Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Nov A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims Dec 8 A 343K | C 370K | P 370KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Oct A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.70%Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 2B | C -4B | P -73B
For today
USDJPY
Topside: 84.00-84.30 light offers 84.40-84.70 medium buy stops 84.80-85.10 bias to light offersÂ
Downside: 83.20-83.50 light bids 82.90-83.20 medium bids 82.50-82.80 medium sell stops EURUSDÂ
Topside: 1.3090-95 offers 1.3095-1.3120 medium buy stops 1.3130-1.3160 medium offers 1.3170-1.3200 medium buy stopsÂ
Downside: 1.3030-1.3060 medium sell stops 1.3000-1.3030 light bids 1.2970-1.3000 light bidsÂ
EURJPYÂ
Topside: 109.85-110.00 decent offersÂ
Downside: 108.90-109.20 medium sell stops 108.30-108.60 light sell stops AUDUSDÂ
Topside: 1.0550-1.0560 light offers 1.0570-1.0600 light buy stopsÂ
Downside: 1.0490-1.0520 light sell stops 1.0450-1.0480 light bids
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JPY:
Japan Tankan business mood worsens, adds to pressure on BOJ
Japan Govt Fujimura: BOJ Tankan Result Reflects Weak Moves in Econ
Fitch: Japan Life Insurers to See Further Risk Reduction
Japan’s LDP set for big win in Sunday election-polls
Japan revised Oct industrial output up 1.6 pct m/m
USD:
Obama: Willing to Cut More Spending – TV Interview
CNY:
HSBC Preliminary China Manufacturing Index Expands in Dec; 2nd Month in Row
China Government Think Tank Suggests Interest Rate Cut – Report
CNY/HKD:
China May Relax Offshore Yuan Investment Rules, HKMA Says (1)
SGD:
Singapore government to keep land sales steady in H1 2013
EUR:
Merkel: No One Is Thinking About Watering Down Stability and Growth Pact
NZD:
Non-residents holdings of NZ debt rise in November RBNZ
AUD:
Australia in a ‘good position’ to respond to risks -OECD
GBP:
BoE’s Weale says tight credit may be hurting UK economy
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·        EUR: A similar pattern to most days this week early selling seen through cross Euro and straight Euro, moving the market from the opening 1.3078 area down to below 1.3068 however, we then saw some reasonable sized EURJPY buying on the back of the Tanken report triggering stops all the way up taking both legs higher again Euro stalled just above the 1.3090 area in what seems to be option play although we drifted a little lower we never really moved to far from the highs and one suspects weak stop losses are beginning to increase to the topside.
·        GBP: Cable was again caught in a tight range moving from the opening level of 1.6110 making and early low down towards 1.6104 before rallying on the JPY weakness to above 1.6122 as we moved towards the London opening.
·        JPY: The market opened around the 83.65 level and stayed relative tight up until the Tankan report was released we saw EURJPY and AUDJPY crosses bought aggressively and USDJPY is reputedly to have seen somewhere in the region of 2bio done by Japanese retail alone, and managed to tic a few tics higher each half hour to touch the 83.95 area as we move towards London.
·        AUD: Early OECD report sent the AUD lower with monetary policy appropriate to sustain recovery, the Oz moved from the opening levels of 1.0525 area down to 1.0510 and would have pushed further if the Tankan had have been a little stronger as it was we saw the carry trade buying from retail Japan kick in and AUDJPY was bought strongly taking the AUDUSD leg with it moving off the lows for a continual rally to the 1.0545 area before stalling a little as we move towards London.
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4 A -12 | C 9 | P -3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q4 A 4 | C 4 | P 8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Dec A 50.9 | P 50.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Oct (F) A 1.60% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%Â
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q3 C 0.00% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Nov C -0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Nov C 2.20% | P 2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Nov C 1.50% | P 1.50%Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Oct C 0.00% | P 0.40%Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Nov C -0.20% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Nov C 1.90% | P 2.20%Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Nov C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Nov C 2.00% | P 2.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Nov C 0.20% | P -0.40%Â Â Â Â Â
14:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Nov C 78.00% | P 77.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 83.96 | 83.60
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3101 | 1.3067
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.98 | 109.28
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0546 | 1.051
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8447 | 0.8416
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9851 | 0.9836
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20905 | 1.2077
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9243 | 0.9229
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6128 | 1.6105
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81235 | 0.8113
Good luck
Andy