Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 87.232 | EURUSD 1.30489 | EURJPY 113.83 | AUDUSD 1.04665 | NZDUSD 0.83234 | USDCAD 0.98764 | EURCHF 1.2094 | USDCHF 0.92675 | GBPUSD 1.61082 | EURGBP 0.81008 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: The Euro backed away for the second day from the high above 1.3300 opening around the 1.3180 level before dipping to below 1.3130 on IMF reiterating what Moody’s and several others have said about the (quick) fix in the US. London regained the early losses that some are now calling a technical move, when in fact it’s just correcting to a USD move which it should have been in the first place, they managed to put the market back to 1.3170 before indifferent numbers out of Europe saw the market drop again to below 1.3100 before a sideways movement for several hours around that level, late trading out of NYK and Syd saw the market tumble for the second time trading down to the 1.3050 as stops were triggered from the 1.3080 level.
·        GBP: Cable traded in line broadly speaking with the Euro with only a poor PMI figure during the day to warrant any real movement, from the Asian session where we saw plenty of volume going through if somewhat directionless we saw Asia take the pair from 1.6250 area to just above 1.6200 however early London recovered that somewhat before the selling reappeared just before the NYK session started where they picked up the market below 1.6200 having been pushed to a low of 1.6150, they in turn sold it further to touch below 1.6100 level in what can only be seen as a correction to the overbuying in Euro’s we’ve seen in the first day of trading in the New Year.
·        JPY: USDJPY was quiet during the Asian session with the market opening around the 87.30 level before slipping to a low of 87.10 area before Tokyo lunch, from there it recovered to its previous levels before London started the day selling in a similar fashion taking the market below 87.00 NYK attempted to take the market below 86.80 but the move was short lived and we saw a late rally taking the market back to the starting levels of 87.30 before settling just off the highs in what was a reasonably quiet day for the JPY.
·        AUD: The Oz managed to stay away from the general buying of USD’s over the course of the day, sold slightly in Asia as USD moved higher against the majors, the Oz dipped from the opening levels of 1.0500 area to just above the 1.0475 area holding into early London where again we saw tech trading pushing up and through the 1.0500 level NYK pushed it towards the previous highs but we again failed above the 1.0525 level where we continue to see medium term players shorting the Oz on the 0.9800/1.0600 play. Early Sydney came in as rampant sellers towards the end of NYK and we saw the pair moving quickly from the failed highs to push down to make new lows for the day trading to the 1.0460 area into the close in NYK.Â
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Dec A 56.1 | P 55.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Dec A 1.28 | C 1.4 | P 1.5Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME-PMI Dec A 49.7 | C 48.3 | P 48.5Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Dec A 3K | C 11K | P 5KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Dec A 6.90% | C 6.90% | P 6.90%Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Nov A 3.80% | C 3.80% | P 3.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Construction Dec A 48.7 | C 49.5 | P 49.3Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Dec A -22.10% | P 34.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Dec A 215K | C 138K | P 118K | R 148K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 29) A 372K | C 355K | P 350KÂ Â
For today
USDJPY:
Topside: 87.90-88.20 decent buy stops
Downside: 86.50/86.80 light sell stops EURUSD:
Topside: 1.3120-1.3150 light mix 1.3150-1.3180 light offers
Downside: 1.2980-1.3010 light mix 1.2950-1.2980 light bids
EURJPY:
Topside: 114.50-114.80 light buy stops
Downside: Nothing significant AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0500-1.0530 light mix 1.0540-1.0570 light buy stops 1.0570-1.0600 light buy stops
Downside: 1.0430 light bids
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USD:
Boehner was re-elected as house speaker despite dissent
EUR:
France will take several months to plan 2014 cuts PM
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·        EUR: Euro’s lost ground again during Asia as stops were triggered below the 1.3040 level trading down to resting bids around the 1.3020 from short term shorts from yesterday. Otherwise it was a quiet day with EURJPY buyers balancing the books.
·        GBP: Cable did a lot of work to the downside moving quickly through the 1.6100 level from the opening 1.6110 to touch 1.6053 in thin trading with volumes significantly lower than the previous session and could only manage to claw back to just above 1.6070 as we head towards London.
·        JPY: Early rumours of fixing demand put the cat amongst the pigeon’s as it was I doubt there really was that much not on a Friday anyway however, the market went to the races from the NYK close moving from 87.20 and triggering some minor stops on the way up through 87.50 and again through 87.70 before topping out just below the favoured 80 level, which after several hours around the 87.70 gave as the market squeezed through only to run into some exporter offers resting around the level however, the market has for the moment not given ground and we remain around the 87.80 level as we move towards London.
·        AUD: With some of the major banks beginning to revising the upcoming GDP Q4 in China the Oz today spent the day on the defensive as sellers appeared from within the local market pushing it down from the opening levels above 1.0465 to below 1.0425 were some quick take profits stood, once we moved into Tokyo lunch supply dried up and we found ourselves stuck around the 1.0440 level with very little impetus in the market.
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Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Services Dec (F) C 47.8 | P 47.8Â Â Â Â
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Services Dec C 50.1 | P 50.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Dec C 2.10% | P 2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Dec C 145K | P 146KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Dec C 7.70% | P 7.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Nov C -0.20% | P -0.10%Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Nov C -1.00% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Dec C 0.0K | P 59.3KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Dec C 7.30% | P 7.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Nov C 0.40% | P 0.80%Â Â Â
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Dec C 54.3 | P 54.7Â
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage C -129B | P -72BÂ Â Â Â Â Â
16:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories C -0.7M | P -0.6MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3054 | 1.3019
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6104 | 1.6053
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 87.835 | 87.255
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9287 | 0.9266
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0468 | 1.0424
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8282 | 0.8223
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9897 | 0.9878
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2094 | 1.2085
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8114 | 0.8101
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.44 | 113.85
Good luck
Andy