Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 102.237 | EURUSD 1.37454 | EURJPY 140.525 | AUDUSD 0.90186 | NZDUSD 0.83405 | USDCAD 1.10854 | EURCHF 1.21899 | USDCHF 0.88683 | GBPUSD 1.66801 | EURGBP 0.82397 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.41 | 102.13

EUR/USD             1.3748 | 1.3738

EUR/JPY               140.72 | 140.40

AUD/USD            0.9021 | 0.8969

NZD/USD             0.8337 | 0.8310

USD/CAD             1.1096 | 1.1080

EUR/CHF              1.2196 | 1.21895

USD/CHF             0.8876 | 0.88665

GBP/USD             1.6685 | 1.6669

EUR/GBP             0.82425 | 0.82325

 

For today

  • EUR: I’m getting a little bored with, well, being bored. Euros struggled in a very small range again as the market continues to lack direction. Pinned below 1.3750 for the session the market didn’t seem to be affected by any of the none news available to the discerning customers around the world, with volumes only slightly worse than yesterday we drifted slowly to the 1.3740 level and have moved around that area since. Offers from the 1.3770 level with light stops mixed in until the 1.3800 level, more stops above the figure however, some strong offers appear just above. Downside has light bids just below the current levels and a mix of orders below 1.3700 with a bias to stops, 1.3670-80 provides a stronger set of bids and then the market is a little gappy until 1.3630 were half decent support kicks in to the 1.3600 levels.
  • GBP: Cable made an early move to make the highs just short of 1.6690 and that is all she wrote as it move back to trade around the 1.6675 levels for the rest of the session in an ever decreasing range. Volumes were slight and one has to assume that whatever occurred yesterday in GBPJPY was completed. For now the offers are set around the 1.6730-50 levels having failed the levels yesterday with some weak stops above that before stronger offers appear in the run to 1.6800 levels. Downside remains open to the 1.6580 with leveraged bids around the 1.6600 before weak stops below the 1.6580, with a certain amount of congestion expected from 1.6580 down into the 1.6550 it probably for the moment explains why we are stuck.
  • JPY: Opening around the 102.20 levels the market spent the early part jammed between 102.25 on the topside and 102.15 to the down, the move into Tokyo didn’t excite and light fixing demand eventually moved the USDJPY higher and once it was moving it moved to the 102.40 levels. As we move to London its drifted a little from above the 102.40 and is currently holding just above the opening range. Topside offers remain as they have been for several days if not weeks (that’s what it feels like) 102.70-103.00 holds the ground with stops building above, the offers above 103.20 seemed to have thinned out but suspect that some are still around. Technically a break below 101.80 opens up the bottom side however, there is the little matter of the repeating bids 101.80-102.10 that have underpinned the market this week. From the 101.50 level orders seem a little patchy and mixed before the support area into 101.10.
  • AUD: The 90 cent level seemed to be the support area yesterday and although we moved into the early session holding above the level, Tokyo broke through the level triggering weak stops and dropping the pair to the 0.8970 level before meeting anything significant in the way of support. The rest of the session has been a steady climb back to above the 0.9000 level and we hold just short of the opening levels. Light bids from 0.8970 levels however, patchy below the level with bet bids around the 0.8900 level. Topside now show light offers from above the 0.9050 level all the way back to 91cent before seeing some light stops above the level.

Overnight News

JPY:

Kuroda Says Effects of BOJ Easing Gradually Manifesting

BOJ Member Miyao Says Recovery Driven by Consumption: Nikkei

Ishida: Japan Growth Trend to Continue Even If 2Q Contraction

CNY:

China to Strengthen Property Land Control This Year: Sec. News

Shanghai FTZ to Lift Foreign-Currency Deposit Cap on March 1

NZD:

English Says N.Z. Interest Rate Increases Are Inevitable
Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

07:00     EUR        German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey Mar C 8.2 | P 8.2

07:00     CHF        UBS Consumption Indicator Jan P 1.81

09:30     GBP       GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) C 0.70% | P 0.80%

09:30     GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Dec C 0.80% | P 0.80%

15:00     USD       New Home Sales M/M Jan C 406K | P 414K

15:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 1.0M

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: A fairly quiet day overall, with the market opening in Asia around the 1.3730’s and moving nowhere fast, trading to just below 1.3740 and just below the 1.3730 for about an 8 pip range until the grey hours, early buyers took the market to 1.3745 and then London opening saw the market move quickly to above the 1.3760 level as German GDP was as predicted by the market. Having held no surprises the market then started to drift lower and ranged from the 1.3745 levels to a high in NYK above the 1.3765 just after the opening in lacklustre trading. Early numbers out of the US were slightly better than expected and the USD moved across the board dropping Euro back to move towards the 1.3715 levels. With the market talking about JPY position squaring USD appeared to be the beneficiary of a quick move as Cable moved off from its highs to below 1.6650 dragging the Euro with it, whichever came first it didn’t last long and the market quickly returned to the previous levels as the consumer confidence number hit the market less than expected, while Euro’s was never quiet able to touch the highs again it did do a lot of work around the 1.3750 level before slipping back into the close to finish only about 10 pips better off on the day.
  • GBP: Cable saw a steady rise from the opening 1.6650 levels on the opening, steadily moving in Asia and London took the pair to above the 1.6720 levels, with commentary from BoE’s McCafferty on considering the strength of the GBP in relation to rate rises and inflationary pressures, for the moment he was comfortable with the rates, the market had the same shift as the Euro in the NYK session with rumoured cross Yen selling being behind the move with GBPJPY as a leading factor. The selling once finished saw the Cable bounce back to above the 1.6720 levels however, the damage was done and those that were long on the day were removed from the market and there was less inclination for anyone to become involved from the buy side. The market drifted off into the close around the 1.6680 levels and a quiet end to the day.
  • JPY:  While the market talks of some cross plays going through in the NYK session the overall movement in USDJPY was comfortable and nothing dramatic really, having opened around the 102.50 levels it made its way to the highs above 102.60 into the Tokyo fix before heading into the grey hours and the first round of JPY buying this could be attributed to exporters with month end selling to do given that we saw two or three tranches of selling it would fit more than one exporter doing the damage beginning from their return from lunch to an hour later, once Tokyo was closed the market was reasonably quiet until into the NYK session when we saw a deeper move again led by GBPJPY and dragging other currencies with it. The market never really recovered once the selling was over and although we did bounce from the 102.00/05 areas back to 102.20 it struggled into the close.
  • AUD: Over the course of the day the market struggled to maintain its levels however, it was a gradual thing, with the market opening around the 0.9035 level it moved sideways in the first few hours topping just below the 0.9045 levels before a move lower to 0.9015 post CNY Fix, with concerns over leveraged positions in the CNH and disparity to the CNY causing some concern in the PBoC offices the Oz is reacting with other regional currencies as some safe have flows move around. Even so having moved to that low the market moved back to the starting point and dropped further in the grey hours making the low for the day below 0.9005. As we moved into the London session properly the market recovered some of its losses however, we remained within the bounds already set for the day and struggled into the 0.9015 areas for the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         CSPI Y/Y Jan A 0.80% | C 1.20% | P 1.30% | P 1.10%

CNY        CB Leading Index Jan A 1.2 | C 0.4 | P 0.8

EUR        German GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%

GBP       BBA Mortgage Approvals Jan A 50.0K | C 47.9K | P 46.5K | P 47.1K

GBP       CBI Realized Sales Feb A 37 | C 15 | P 14

USD       Housing Price Index M/M Dec A 0.80% | C 0.40% | P 0.10%

USD       S&P/Case-Shiller 20 Cities House Price Y/Y Dec A 13.40% | C 13.10% | P 13.70%

USD       Consumer Confidence Feb A 78.1 | C 80.1 | P 80.7

 

Good Luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.