Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 102.361 | EURUSD 1.36871 | EURJPY 140.094 | AUDUSD 0.89684 | NZDUSD 0.82947 | USDCAD 1.11288 | EURCHF 1.21909 | USDCHF 0.89068 | GBPUSD 1.66722 | EURGBP 0.82096 |

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.45   102.23

EUR/USD             1.3696   1.36755

EUR/JPY               140.21   139.885

AUD/USD            0.8969   0.8916

NZD/USD             0.8331   0.8293

USD/CAD             1.114     1.1122

EUR/CHF              1.219     1.2181

USD/CHF             0.891     0.8898

GBP/USD             1.6683   1.6658

EUR/GBP             0.82135 0.82065

For today

• EUR: A little bit more action, but not in the Euro. Opening around the 1.3685 levels and dipping below 1.3680 in early trading before rising a little from the Tokyo fix to above the 1.3695 levels. The market then drifted with very little going through. As we move towards London neither side has been tested. With light offers appearing above the 1.3720 area and patchy from there until 1.3770 where we still see some good offers into the 1.3800 level and stops behind. Downside has a mixture with the 1.3650 area showing a lot of congestion previously before the 1.3610-1.3580 levels where the first set of bids seem to be built, light stops then appear below 1.3580 with 1.3550 area being a minor support level.
• GBP: A little more movement in Cable with the market opening around the 1.6670 level and dipping with fixing supply to below the 1.6660 levels before moving back and catching weak shorts and pushing to above the 1.6682 level in a bit of a scramble. The market since then has steadied down and drifted back to the opening levels. With little change from yesterday there seems to be interest to sell on rallies and 1.6720 sees offers awaiting. While strength of GBP is to a great extent pinned on improving numbers across the board one has to remember that as long as Euro remains bid in the face of its general woe’s and inflation remains below the 2% level in the UK then a rise in interest rates is a far off affair, thus the sellers. Downside sees congestion from current levels to the 1.6600, even from there the route lower will see bottom pickers however weak stops below the 1.6500 level is the next level to watch.
• JPY: USDJPY remains in a tight band again with the market opening around the 102.40 level it moved lower on some GBPJPY selling before moving back to the opening range, we’ve struggled to move too far and 102.25 remains the low so far with 102.44 the top. Topside the 102.70 level still remains the focus however, the amounts are changing and the mixture is increasing with the bias to offers still remaining but much reduced from previous days, a break above the 103.00 level sees light stops dominate before better offers 103.20-50. Downside is still fairly open with bids appearing 102.10-101.90 then a few light stops before reaching a total mixture around the 101.50 level. Stronger bids appear in front of the 101.00 levels however at that point one imagines the pair will be in free fall and we look for supportive bids around the 100.80 to hold the market.
• AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.8970 levels about where NYK had rallied to after the falls, the release of capital expenditure date which came in significantly lower than expected sent the market lower, dropping to the 0.8920 levels and into the minor support areas, if you could call it a bounce was limited moving only to the 0.8940 levels and holding in a slow move to London. With immediate bids below the lows one would suspect they will be tested into the London opening, making the 88cent level look vulnerable with very little showing until that area. Topside has light offers towards the 0.9050 area up to around the 0.9070 levels before stops start to show in earnest however, even then there are still offers running into the 91cent level.

Overnight News

JPY:

Japan Staffing Cos. Seek Higher Pay for Temp. Workers: Nikkei

Abe Reiterates Japan Will Cut Reliance on Nuclear Power

AUD:

Australia 4Q New Capital Expenditure Falls Vs 3Q

Abbott Signals Any Aid for Qantas Must Be Offered to Competitors

USD/THB:

U.S. says concerned with Thailand violence, calls for restraint

NZD:

RBNZ Says January Low-Deposit Loans 4.8% of Total New Lending
Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Trade Balance (NZD) Y/Y Jan A 306M | C 230M | P 523M | R 493M

06:45     CHF        GDP Q/Q Q4 C 0.40% | P 0.50%

07:00     EUR        German Import Price Index M/M Jan C -0.10% | P 0.00%

08:15     CHF        Employment Level Q4 C 4.191M | P 4.196M

08:55     EUR        German Unemployment Rate Feb C 6.80% | P 6.80%

08:55     EUR        Unemployment Change Feb C -13K | P -28K

09:00     EUR        M3 Money Supply Y/Y Jan C 1.10% | P 1.00%

10:00     EUR        Consumer Confidence Feb C-11.7 | P -11.7

10:00     EUR        Economic Confidence Feb C 101 | P 100.9

10:00     EUR        Industrial Confidence Feb C -4 | P -3.9

10:00     EUR        Services Sentiment Feb C 2.3 | P 2.3

13:00     EUR        German CPI M/M Feb (P) C 0.60% | P -0.60%

13:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y Feb (P) C 1.30% | P 1.30%

13:30     USD       Durable Goods Orders Jan C -0.50% | P -4.30%

13:30     USD       Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Jan C 0.20% | P -1.60%

13:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 21) C  33K | P 336K

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: The Euro was caught in a narrow range during Asia moving around the 1.3740/45 levels for the most part before moving into the London session with early Eastern Europeans initially sold but only to the 1.3735 area. The market moved slightly higher after the German Gfk number moving to just below the 1.3760 levels which in the end proved to be the top for the day as the market began to drift as Russian unannounced military exercises in the Western districts took place, this unnerved the market and was reminiscent of the games from the 80’s. The market while not tremendous volume wise moved steadily lower to push down into the 1.3660’s before finding enough willing to buy and hold the market into a quiet close.
• GBP: As with the Euro during Asia barely a flicker holding for the most part in the 1.6670-80 range from the opening, grey hours saw a little movement with German figures moving EURGBP a little higher however, for the most part GBP followed moving to the 1.6690 levels before following the Euro lower as we started to see ramifications of gamesmanship on Russian borders. Euro’s led the way while GBP strengthened against the Euro the general move set USD moving higher. Cable moved into the NYK session holding the highs having pushed briefly through the 1.6700 level and the general Euro sell off began taking Cable with it. While the move was not as quick as the Euro the general depth was about the same moving to 1.6620 areas before finding sufficient support. As with the Euro the market moved off the lows however the move for Cable put the market only just short of the opening levels and EURGBP held around the 0.8210 area. UK GDP was in line with expectations broadly speaking but the details seem to suggest stronger than expected business investment with private consumption lessening (probably all the rain).
• JPY: Having opened around the 102.20 levels the early part of the session into Tokyo seemed to be mired around the opening area with barely 10 pips movement. However, from the fix onwards the USDJPY started to move up and pushing into the light offers to the 102.40 levels. The market drifted a little after the highs and we marked pace around the 102.30 into the London session with little movement or volume in JPY. I’d like to say that USDJPY improved but in fact the market remained contained within the same range for much of the session and only once we moved into the NYK session did we see a similar pattern to the previous day with what looks like exporter selling appearing around 2pm taking the market quickly to the 102.10 levels to set the low for the day before smartly rebounding and pushing through the highs to trigger weak stops and allowing the pair to hit the 102.60 levels before subsiding back to the 102.35-40 levels into the close.
• AUD: Weak stops triggered into the Tokyo opening sent the market from the 0.9010 area to touch 0.8970 in a quick move, however, once the stops were cleared the market slowly moved through the session to top into the grey hours above the 0.9025 levels. Once we moved into the London session properly the market stalled and was in a steady decline all through the session with little in the way of defence and not that much of a range when considering, drifting to just below the 0.8950 level as USD rose against most of the majors. The market did return to the 0.8970 levels into the close but the market closed as quietly as it performed throughout the day.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

EUR        German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey Mar A 8.5 | C 8.2 | P 8.2 | R 8.3

CHF        UBS Consumption Indicator Jan A 1.44 | C 1.81 | P 1.8

GBP       GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.80%

GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Dec A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.90%

USD       New Home Sales M/M Jan A 468K | C 406K | P 414K

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 0.1M | C 1.1M | P 1.0M

Good Luck

Andy