Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 102.121 | EURUSD 1.37097 | EURJPY 140.013 | AUDUSD 0.89646 | NZDUSD 0.83818 | USDCAD 1.11232 | EURCHF 1.21782 | USDCHF 0.8883 | GBPUSD 1.6688 | EURGBP 0.82156 |

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.205 | 101.55

EUR/USD             1.3715 | 1.3694

EUR/JPY               140.14 | 139.12

AUD/USD            0.8990 | 0.8939

NZD/USD             0.8415 | 0.8360

USD/CAD             1.1132 | 1.1115

EUR/CHF              1.2182 | 1.2170

USD/CHF             0.88885 | 0.88775

GBP/USD             1.6695 | 1.6677

EUR/GBP             0.82175 | 0.8210

For today

• EUR: From the opening 1.3710 levels there has been a steady stream of selling nothing large and after dipping slightly the market moved to its highs around the 1.3714 levels as USDJPY dropped. It wasn’t long though before the USDJPY selling was no longer just USDJPY and cross selling appeared in the market with EURJPY pushing lower and taking the Euro back through the 1.3700 levels as we move towards London the market holds just below that level. With light mixture in the 1.3720-50 area the offers seem to be slightly heavier with a little gap before a similar story with 1.3770-1.3800 levels with larger offers towards the figure levels, breakouts above that level sees a congregation of stops and calls. The downside sees something similar with a mixture 1.3650-80 then very gappy to the 1.3620 area where some better bids start to appear and medium term stops below the 1.3580 level.
• GBP: While Cable has been little different the market held up better during the first half moving from the 1.6684 to just short of 1.6694, cross selling against the Yen was more notable in the EURJPY even though there was some light selling through the GBP cross. EURGBP selling saw light selling however; for the most part the Cable was side-lined and drifted more than anything to touch below the 1.6678 level but trading around the 1.6680 levels holding for a few hours now. Very little change for the moment too previous days, with offers from the 1.6700-20 area with light stops above and larger offers appearing as you move higher. Towards the bottom we have light bids seen from the 1.6620-1.6600 levels and then light stops through the level, bids appear then at each sentimental level 1.6550, 16500, 1.6450 with nothing in the way of stops showing but once we get there I’d expect stops behind each level to appear.
• JPY: USDJPY held up in early trading with the market moving from the 102.10 level to top above the 102.20 level into the release of the data, with CPI showing only slight improvements the shock strong IP figure sent the market lower in a reasonably steady drop. The market briefly held around the 101.85-80 levels as some bids soaked up the pressure however, it was fleeting and the market didn’t relent and finally pushed through to the 101.60 levels with a dip just below the level before holding as we move into the grey hours. The topside now seems a little remote however, we’ve dipped onto this handle before only to find the market moving back up onto the 102 handle, topside stops await above the 102.20 area with a little mix on any move to 102.50. Above remains a lighter set of offers from the 102.70-103.00 and stops mixed just above with offers into 103.20-50 with reasonable size suspected on the offer. The move down has seen the market stall already at 101.80 and 101.60 as bids matched off against the stops in the area, 101.30-101.00 now holds the next line in the sand and the bids are a little stronger than the others with weak stops through 100.80.
• AUD: All change for the Oz or so it seemed in early trading, the market moved sideways from the opening areas of 0.8965 touching down to 0.8955, with a weakening USDJPY, the moves initially allowed the Oz to rise pushing to close to 0.8990 before retail panic selling against the Yen kicked in and the Oz tumbled back to the 0.8945 levels and ultimately set the low just below the 0.8940’s. The market is currently pushing back slowly and has reached the 0.8960 levels as we move to the grey hours. With the market open on either side to some extent 89cent remains the support for the pair with 0.8900-0.8920 showing some bids and very little appearing in the market. Topside has some light stops in a move through 0.8970 and the 0.9000 levels however, after that you are looking closer to the 0.9100. With the setup here we could have a choppy day however, if previous days are anything to go with then snooze fest is the more likely.

Overnight News

CNY:

China’s Yuan Drops Most on Record Amid Band Widening Speculation

China NPC Meeting to End Earlier This Year, Wen Wei Po Says

PBOC Simplifies Shanghai Zone Forex Investment, Settlement

China banks raise mortgage rates on funding squeeze survey

RUB/UAH:

Putin orders government to work with Kiev, IMF, and G8 on Ukraine

JPY:

BOJ Shirai: Possible It May Take Some Time to Achieve 2% Target

Suga: N. Korea Missile Launch Poses No Security Threat to Japan

Abe Says a Campaign Exists to Damage Japan’s Image Overseas

Japan Jan core CPI +1.3% YoY

Japan Jan jobless rate holds steady at 3.7%

: Japan Jan household spending rises 1.1% vs. year ago

Japan Jan Indus Output +4.0% on Mo; Mkt Expected +3.0%

Japan Jan retail sales rise 4.4% YoY

NZD:

NZ business confidence near 20 yr. high in Jan – ANZ survey
Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Building Permits M/M Jan A -8.30% | P 7.60% | R 7.10%

JPY         Nomura/ JMMA Manufacturing PMI Feb  A 55.5 | P 56.6

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Jan A 1.30% | C 1.30% | P 1.30%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 0.90% | C 0.80% | P 0.70%

JPY         Household Spending Y/Y Jan A 1.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.70%

JPY         Unemployment Rate Jan A 3.70% | C 3.70% | P 3.70%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Jan (P) A 4.00% | C 3.10% | P 0.90%

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Jan A 4.40% | C 3.90% | P 2.60% | R 2.50%

GBP       Gfk Consumer Confidence Feb A -7 | C -6 | P -7

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Jan A 12.30% | C 15.30% | P 18.00%

07:00     EUR        German Retail Sales Y/Y Jan C 1.20% | P -2.50%

08:00     CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Feb C 2.03 | P 1.98

10:00     EUR        CPI Y/Y Feb (P) C 0.70% | P 0.70%

10:00     EUR        Unemployment Rate Jan C 12.00% | P 12.00%

13:30     CAD       GDP M/M Dec C -0.20% | P 0.20%

13:30     USD       GDP Annualized Q4 (P) C 2.70% | P 3.20%

13:30     USD       GDP Price Index Q4 (P) C 1.30% | P 1.30%

14:45     USD       Chicago PMI Feb C 58.2 | P 59.6

14:55     USD       U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Feb (F) C 81.4 | P 81.2

15:00     USD       Pending Home Sales M/M Jan C 2.90% | P -8.70%

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: Another quiet day in Asia with the market moving from the opening levels of 1.3685 to just below 1.3680 and around the 1.3695 levels, with little news during Asia the market moved steadily EURGBP accounted for some of the limited movement however, the market only started to really move once we moved into London. An expected drop in import prices in German did little for the market and only once the official opening in London passed did we see strong selling of the Euro particularly in the EURJPY cross which continued to move lower after the Euro had slowed its decent around the 1.3650 areas. The market remained in the 1.3645/65 range for the best part of the London with events in the Ukraine still dominating the news and a limited flight to safe havens seen. The NYK market sold USD’s after the Yellen testimony to the senate panel and the market again squeezed higher triggering stops above the 1.3690 level and touched briefly above 1.3720, from there it was a drab affair and the market moved around the 1.3710 levels into the close.
• GBP: Cable had a better range through Asia than the Euro but was still limited in its movement. Moving from the opening 1.6665 level to trade initially below the 1.6660 levels it moved a little higher on light EURGBP selling early sending Cable to above the 1.6680 areas, from this point the market was reasonably quiet and drifted back to the lows into the grey hours. Yen related buying for end of month again saw both the EURJPY and GBPJPY being sold into the London opening sent Cable to its lows and with no data for the day it struggled into NYK basing around the 1.6620 level. NYK reversed the flow with straight GBP buying coming into the market to take the pair slowly back to the opening ranges. The market rose slightly into the later session once the NYK option cut went through and the market stalled just short of the 1.6700 level and held in the 1.6680-90 from then on into the close.
• JPY: Quiet start from around the 102.38 areas the market moved lower to below the 102.25 areas into the Tokyo session and struggled off that level, the market held the 102.35 for great parts of the session briefly visiting above 102.40 however, it was a reasonably quiet session until the London opening in what appeared to be system selling for end of month. With crosses heading lower the USDJPY was dragged to below the 101.80 levels triggering minor stops on the move through 101.90 however, the market held and once we moved into the NYK session and end of Tokyo day sellers was out of the way the market started to recover. Moving back to trade around the 102.10 levels the former base line for the best part of the NYK session and into a close just above.
• AUD: The Oz opened quietly around the 0.8970 level and held its own until the release of the Capex figures with capital expenditure data coming in significantly lower than expected; this sent the AUD quickly lower to the 0.8920 level before finding sufficient support to hold the market. It then struggled towards the 0.8950 area over the next hour or so but could never seem to get going from the drop. The move into London saw a follow through of selling starting in the grey hours with a push to just above the 89 cent level, from there the market again spent a long time gradually moving towards the 0.8950 levels. A push through the level triggered some weak stops and the market was again back in the opening range of 0.8960-70 into the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Trade Balance (NZD) Y/Y Jan A 306M | C 230M | P 523M | P 493M

CHF        GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%

EUR        German Import Price Index M/M Jan A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.00%

CHF        Employment Level Q4 A 4.189M | C 4.191M | P 4.196M

EUR        German Unemployment Rate Feb A 6.80% | C 6.80% | P 6.80%

EUR        German Unemployment Change Feb A -14K | C -13K | P -28K

EUR        M3 Money Supply Y/Y Jan A 1.20% | C 1.10% | P 1.00%

EUR        Consumer Confidence Feb A -12.7 | C -11.7 | P -11.7

EUR        Economic Confidence Feb A 101.2 | C 101 | P 100.9 | R 101

EUR        Industrial Confidence Feb A -3.4 | C -4 | P -3.9 | R -3.8

EUR        Services Sentiment Feb A 3.2 | C 2.3 | P 2.3 | R 2.4

EUR        German CPI M/M Feb (P) A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P -0.60%

EUR        German CPI Y/Y Feb (P) A 1.20% | C 1.30% | P 1.30%

USD       Durable Goods Orders Jan A -1.00% | C -0.50% | P -4.30% | R -4.20%

USD       Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Jan A 1.10% | C 0.20% | P -1.60% | R -1.30%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 21) A 348K | C 333K | P 336K

Good Luck

Andy