Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 102.203 102.15-22 | EURUSD 1.38338 1.3834-40 | EURJPY 141.381 141.31-47 | AUDUSD 0.9275 0.9271-85 | NZDUSD 0.85766 0.8571-85 | USDCAD 1.10365 1.1030-45 | EURCHF 1.21942 1.2195-98 | USDCHF 0.88156 0.8803-20 | GBPUSD 1.68012 1.6790-1.6801 | EURGBP 0.82339 0.8211-44 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.275 | 102.04

EUR/USD             1.3847 | 1.38145

EUR/JPY               141.585 | 140.99

AUD/USD            0.9293 | 0.9269

NZD/USD             0.8588 | 0.8575

USD/CAD             1.1040 | 1.1032

EUR/CHF              1.21965 | 1.21895

USD/CHF             0.8827 | 0.88005

GBP/USD             1.6806 | 1.6777

EUR/GBP             0.82435 | 0.82325

 

For today

  • EUR: The market opened slightly higher than Friday’s close around the 1.3840 areas and moved quietly into the Tokyo session, EURJPY selling appeared early on and the Euro took the brunt of the action dropping back to the 1.3815 levels as weak stops were triggered before bouncing 10 pips to the 1.3825 areas as we head to the grey hours. Resistance is firmly from the 1.3850 levels and offers increase into the 1.3900 levels, stops begin to make an appearance however, there is a mixture above the level. Downside has bids around the 1.3780 levels with weaker bids around 1.3800, stops start to appear on a break of 1.3770 area with fresh bids 1.3750.
  • GBP: Cable followed the Euro around like a little lost puppy today with the market opening broadly in line with the close on Friday it move quietly into the Tokyo session edging above the 1.6810 level only to call off quickly as the retail sales numbers in Japan hit the market and cross selling sent GBP lower with the Euro to hold around the 1.6780 levels in the only move of the day, the market moved back to the 1.6790 levels in a slow movement and we hold around the area into the grey hours. 1.6760 levels holds the market for the moment with some bids in the way of a move lower and in front of the 1.6740 level with better support, with 1.6700 level showing signs of a weaker side than previously stops are likely to be below that area. Topside remains offered from the 1.6840/50 areas and light stops and a mixture thereafter.
  • JPY: The USDJPY has held a reasonably quiet range moving off the high opening around the 102.20 levels to dip to 102.05 as cross selling dominated the early part of the session. Once the low was set the market spent the rest of the session slowly making its way back to the opening levels and is currently only just short of the level heading into the grey hours. For the moment weak offer 102.50 have held the market over the past few days and with larger offers from 102.70-103.00 the market remains stuck in a tight range, stops above the offers are there but are few in number and some likely larger offers remain around the 103.20-50 levels. to the Downside every dip is seen to attract buyers below the 102.00 levels with resting bids towards the 101.80 level before stops start to appear from 101.80 to the 101.60 areas and then a mixture starts to appear with unclear definition.
  • AUD: Back from a long weekend the market was slightly better bid on the opening compared with the close in NYK opening around the 0.9275 levels and quickly rallying to the 0.9293/4 levels before spending the rest of the session drifting back to 0.9280. Light bids to the 0.9250 levels with a mixture appearing below that level and no real drama’s topside has offers around the 93 cent levels which seem to hold on any rally however, stops are beginning to build above the level to open up the 0.94 cent level again.

 

Overnight News

JPY:

TPP Negotiations Impasse Is Credit Negative for Japan: Moody’s

Japan’s Aso says to stick to stimulus policy -Jiji

Japan Mar Overall Retail Sales +11.0% on Year

Japan Lawmaker Aims to Start Casino Bill Diet Discussions in May

Tokyo Governor Conveyed to China Abe’s Wish to Improve Ties

Asia:

IMF Says Asia Must Pursue Structural Changes Amid Volatility

CNY:

China 2Q GDP May Grow About 7.4%: Securities Journal

China Economy Leverage within ‘Appropriate’ Range: Sec. Journal

China Regulator to Resume IPO Review

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Mar A 11.00% | C 10.80% | P 3.60%

06:00     EUR        German Import Price Index M/M Mar C -0.10% | P -0.10%

14:00     USD       Pending Home Sales M/M Mar C 0.70% | P -0.80%

 

Weekend News

G7/RUB:

G-7 Set to Unveil New Russia Sanctions as Observers Detained
RUB:

Russian Central Bank Won’t Target Ruble Exchange Rate, RIA Says
Russia Asked to Help Free Ukraine Monitors as Sanctions Loom
RUB/NOK:

Norway Oil Fund Reassessing Risk on Significant Russian Holdings
CNY: China March Industrial Profit Up 10.7%; Jan.-Feb. Up 9.4%
China’s Xi Vows Crackdown on Threats to Stability, Xinhua Says
China Capable of Coping With ‘Provocations,’ Xinhua Reports
Ex-PBOC Adviser Li Sees 7% as Floor for China GDP Growth
CNY/JPY/USD:

China Has ‘Grave Concerns’ Over U.S.-Japan Statement: Xinhua
JPY/THB/IDR:

Asahi to Open Production Plants in Thailand, Indonesia: Nikkei
USD/KRW:

U.S. Considers Delaying South Korea Wartime Command Handover
USD/EUR:

GE’s Immelt to Meet with France’s Montebourg on Alstom Deal
EUR:

Dutch Central Bank Chief Knot Isn’t in Favour of European QE: NRC
Greece Won’t Need 3rd Bailout, Deputy PM Venizelos Says: Ethnos
Vienna Residential Building Collapses After Blast, Injuring Five

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: After a quiet start with ANZAC day dominating the market or not as the case maybe the market moved in the usual tight range holding for the most part around the 1.3830-35 area with a dip into the mid 1.3820’s and a high around the 1.3835 levels before drifting into London little changed from the opening. With no data for the Eurozone the market saw only limited movement through the day, although better than Asia the Euro was dragged along by the limited movements of other currencies, most notably the GBP. Moving from the quiet 1.3830 areas the market moved quietly to the high 1.3840’s but was unable to penetrate the 1.3850’s during the session, the market reject the levels a couple of times dipping back to the opening levels before attempting again. The market in the end finished the day almost unchanged around the 1.3833/34 levels for the close.
  • GBP: Cable was as quiet as the Euro through the Asian session moving around the 1.6805 levels having drifted back from the highs above 1.6810. The move into the London session saw some brief selling after the retail sales dipping to the 1.6790 level before bouncing back higher in a small short squeeze touching above the 1.6830 as the early shorts had their positions turned out. The market dipped back to the opening levels and slowly rose again to the 1.6825 levels before a slow decline into the close with very little interest going through.
  • JPY: USDJPY saw early sellers in the pre Tokyo market as squaring of some positions occurred after the early numbers, dipping to the 102.20 level before the market started to lift up for the fixing demand and a steady push to the 102.50 areas, once the run was finished the market started to drift back towards the opening levels and into the grey hours fresh selling started to appear forcing the pair lower over the course of the day into the NYK session. The market stabilized around the 102.00 levels having just dipped through the level on a few occasions before starting to move a little higher as the day started to draw to a close finishing the day around the 102.15 levels on a very quiet session.
  • AUD: The Oz played only a peripheral roll in today’s events and was pulled around by the other currencies to a great extent, rising steadily from the opening in Asia from the 0.9263 area to just short of 0.9275 before AUDJPY selling kicked in as the USDJPY dropped off, the Oz slipped back to its lows of 0.9255 area before beginning a steady rise into the grey hours just above the 0.9280 levels. The market again drifted back below 0.9265 before starting a further test higher this time in an attempt at the 0.93 cent level before rejecting the area on the second attempt and falling quickly back to the opening areas where the market traded into the close in NYK.

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Mar A 1.30% | C 1.40% | P 1.30%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Food Y/Y Apr A 2.70% | C 2.80% | P 1.00%

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb A -1.10% | C -0.70% | P 1.00% | R 1.70%

GBP       Retail Sales M/M Mar A 0.10% | C -0.40% | P 1.70% | R 1.30%

GBP       BBA Loans for House Purchase Mar A 45.9K | C 48.9K | P 47.6K | R 47.2K

USD       U. of Michigan Confidence Apr (F) A 84.1 | C 83 | P 82.6

 

Stay lucky

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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