Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 123.807 123.65-85 | EURUSD 1.09788 1.0965-74 | AUDUSD 0.72837 0.7261-90 | NZDUSD 0.65771 0.6556-97 | USDCAD 1.30465 1.3035-59 | USDCHF 0.96254 0.9587-0.9638 | GBPUSD 1.55149 1.5479-1.5523 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               123.84 | 123.43

EUR/USD             1.1015 | 1.0969

EUR/JPY               136.00 | 135.78

AUD/USD            0.7299 | 0.7264

NZD/USD             0.6604 | 0.6566

USD/CAD             1.3050 | 1.3024

EUR/CHF              1.0583 | 1.0560

USD/CHF             0.9625 | 0.95985

GBP/USD             1.5539 | 1.5509

EUR/GBP             0.7096 | 0.70685

For today

• EUR: A quiet opening with the market unchanged from Friday’s close with limited news over the weekend however, having dipped to the 1.0970 levels the market was unable to push any further and then started a steady rise over the session to push to the 1.1010 levels spiking into the 1.1015 level with the initial rise likely to be the move to the 136.00 areas in the EURJPY cross. Topside offers into the 1.1020 remain with the possibility of a push through likely to see weak stops and an opening to the 1.1080-1.1100 levels and similar offers to the 1.1000 areas, downside bids into the 1.0950 areas and congestion through the level and into the 1.0900 areas, those bids are likely to continue through the level and the market likely to struggle onto the 1.0850 areas increasing into the 1.0830-20 areas.
• GBP: Cable opened around the 1.5510 levels and the Cable gradually moved to the 1.5530 levels before struggling in the area and then drifting back to the 1.5520 in very limited trading. Light offers just above and into the 1.5550 areas before the market opens up to the 1.5600 areas and then congestive from then on. Downside bids in the current areas and through the 1.5500 levels those bids are likely to be light but continual into the 1.5450 areas before breaking and opening up a deeper move to the 1.5350 areas.
• JPY: Early buying in EURJPY saw the USDJPY move off the 123.75 areas and move to just below 123.85 areas before starting a steady drift lower as the Euro continued rising and EURJPY pushed against the 136.00 levels, USDJPY was forced steadily into the 123.45-50 areas before finding some minor support and moved towards the London session holding that 123.50 areas. Topside offers light into the 124.00 levels with those offers increasing through the level with 124.30 likely to hold weak stops before running into further offerings into the 124.50-60 areas and the point where Kuroda last spoke out against a weak JPY. Downside bids likely to be around the 123.50 levels and into the 123.40 areas before opening a little with light bids into the 123.00 areas and the market likely to open to 122.50 areas and the possibility of a deeper move.
• AUD: Very quiet both data and movement for the Oz with the market opening on the low side around the 0.7270 areas then pushing slightly higher into the Tokyo opening and then continuing through the session to test to the 73 cent level before just as slow movement back into the 0.7280 areas. Topside offers now in the 73 cent levels likely to be light before the market opens on a break through the 0.7310-20 areas with the market likely to open to the stronger offers into the 0.7380 level. Downside bids into the 0.7260 areas with those bids likely to continue lightly to the 0.7230-20 areas where as we saw before bids likely to increase as the market approaches the 72 cent area.

Overnight News

JPY:

BOJ’s Nakaso: Japan Inflation Expectations Rising on the Whole

CNY:

China’s June Industrial Companies’ Profit Falls 0.3% Y/y

China Researchers See 2015 Jobless Rate 4%-4.1%: Sec. Journal

EUR:

ECB Rejects Greek Proposals for Bourse Opening: ASE Official

GBP/IDR:

U.K. Offers Indonesia GBP1b of Infrastructure Financing: Globe

NZD:

Key Says Pipeline of Auckland Building Activity Looks Positive

Fonterra 2015-16 Milk Payment May Be Less Than NZ$4: Westpac

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Corporate Service Price Y/Y Jun A 0.40% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%

06:00     EUR        German Import Price Index M/M Jun C -0.30% | P -0.20%

08:00     EUR        German IFO – Business Climate Jul C 107.2 | P 107.4

08:00     EUR        German IFO – Current Assessment Jul C 112.9 | P 113.1

08:00     EUR        German IFO – Expectations Jul C 101.8 | P 102

08:00     EUR        Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jun C 5.10% | P 5.00%

10:00     GBP       CBI Trends Total Orders Jul C -6 | P -7

12:30     USD       Durable Goods Orders Jun C 3.50% | P -1.80%

12:30     USD       Durables Ex Transportation Jun C 0.50% | P 0.50%

 

Weekend News

GBP:

BOE’s Haldane Sees No Rush to Raise U.K. Interest Rates
Pearson in Talks to Sell Economist Stake Following FT Disposal
U.K. Relaxes Travel Advice for Iran, Foreign Secretary Says
EUR:

Greece’s Creditors to Begin Talks with Govt. Tuesday: Official
Greek Capital Controls Can Be Eased Once Bailout Done: Agora
Greek Exit from Euro Isn’t an Option, Deputy PM Dragasakis Says
Germany Will Help Fund Euro-Region Budget: Schaeuble in Spiegel
CNY:

China Probes Shareholders at 5 Listed Cos. on Stock Sales: Xinhua
China Finds $25b Delayed Projects Amid Infrastructure Push
China CSRC Probes 5 Cos. Over Alleged Disclosure Violations
CNY/EUR:

Volkswagen Has No Plans to Cut China Production, Spokesman Says
JPY/USD:

Japan Said to Mull Scrapping Most U.S. Chicken Tariffs: Nikkei
USD:

Fed Accidentally Released Confidential Staff Projections
CZK:

Czechs Should Delay Euro Adoption on Greece, Zeman Tells MF
NZD:

N.Z.’s Key Says Stamp Duty, Land Tax Are ‘Potentially Options’
New Zealand to Encourage Migrants to Settle Outside Auckland
TRY:

Turkey Parliament May Hold Extraordinary Meeting: PM Davutoglu

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: Another quiet session with the summer volumes and spreads you would expect, opening around the 1.0985 areas the market only made limited gains and could not push through the 1.1000 level although the market did attempt it on a number of occasions and the first was from the opening onwards pushing to above 1.0990 before dropping away in mid-session to the 1.0970 levels, early London had a run at the level however, poorer PMI numbers saw that attempt quickly squashed and the market triggered weak stops on the move through the 1.0970 areas and the market eventually based off the 1.0930 levels with a similar story to the attempt topside. The move into the NYK session saw the market slowly recover the previous levels and a steady move to the 1.0980 areas remaining around the level into the close.
• GBP: Cable was very little different to the Euro in movement generally with the Cable unable to push to mush above the 1.5520 levels with the London market quickly selling the market back to 1.5470 dipping on a couple of occasions through the 1.5460 levels but then eventually starting a steady rise back through to the opening levels in a quiet session.
• JPY: USDJPY remained trapped on the topside, moving initially from the 123.90 levels to push through to the 124.05 areas before drifting back to the opening levels, the move into the London session saw the same move and eventually managed to push to 124.10 however, the move into the NYK session saw quick selling moving in as the topside again seemed to be to congested and the day traders took the weakest route and the USDJPY traded down into the 123.60 level before bouncing and closing around the 123.80 level in a very quiet and limited session.
• AUD: Opening around the 0.7355 levels and barely scrapped through the 0.7360 level before running into the Tokyo session and the release of the CNY PMI numbers showing a decline and sending the Oz lower to the 0.7310 level and then trading steadily through to the 0.7270 areas before bouncing slightly but unable to push cleanly through the 73 cent levels and then trading quietly into the London session, as the market moved deeper into the London the market dipped steadily towards the 0.7260 areas but found some reasonable support sufficient to turn the market higher and a steady rise but only to the 0.7290 areas into the close.

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Trade Balance May A -60M | C 100M | P 350M | R 371M

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Jul A 51.4 | C 50.5 | P 50.1

CNY        Caixin PMI Manufacturing Jul A 48.2 | C 49.8 | P 49.4

EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Jul A 51.5 | C 51.9 | P 51.9

EUR        Germany Services PMI Jul A 53.7 | C 54 | P 53.8

EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul A 52.5 | C 52.5 | P 52.5

EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Jul A 53.8 | C 54.2 | P 54.4

USD       New Home Sales Jun A 482K | C 540K | P 546K | R 517K

Stay lucky

Andy

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.