Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.332 | EURUSD 1.09994 | AUDUSD 0.74855 | NZDUSD 0.67952 | USDCAD 1.32477 | USDCHF 0.99735 | GBPUSD 1.42167 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10025 | 1.09716
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.809 | 113.166
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.42214 | 1.41900
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74874 | 0.74624
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99871 | 0.99653
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32729 | 1.32367
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.66590 | 0.66193
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77394 | 0.77268
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.898 | 124.324
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09729 | 1.09500
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For Today
- EUR: A steady drift lower for the Euro over the course of the day, with the ECB announcement and decision time for the ECB the market has seen sellers across all types as the market offloads the risk for the event, pushing through the opening around the 1.1000 levels the market dropped through the 1.0980 levels triggering some weak stops and then holding in the 1.0970-90 range for the balance of the day into the grey hours around the mid-range, Topside offers through the 1.1000 levels light until the market moves towards the 1.1050 areas and then light offers are likely through into stronger offers around the 1.1080 levels and the 1.1100 area. A dovish commentary and no additional QE could see the market pushing on to trigger weak stops on a move through the 1.1120 areas and the market opening for a test to 1.1200 areas, Downside bids light into the 1.0950 levels and while there is likely to be some congestion on a move through that level one would assume that the impetus would be sufficient to open the 1.0800 handle and push back into the range from Dec/Jan.
- GBP: With very little independent movement the Cable drifted from the opening levels around 1.4215 to test to the 1.4190 into mid Tokyo before finding some light support, this was more a consequence of risk adjustment in the Euro than anything else with the EURGBP cross remaining quiet, Topside offers into the 1.4250 areas are likely to be reasonably strong however, not so much that would stop the market moving through if the ECB disappoints and strong EURGBP was to appear in the market, with better offers likely into the 1.4300 levels with the likelihood of 1.4400 being move of a key to the higher ranges from the beginning of Feb, downside bids light into each sentimental level with the 1.4150, 1.4100 and 1.4050 providing very little support however, the 1.4000 could possibly see a stronger support level in a busy market.
- JPY: USDJPY saw light selling into the pre-Tokyo market trading from the opening 113.30 areas to test briefly below the 113.20 level before the buyers reappeared into the new Tokyo session and a steady but comfortable rise higher as the market made its way back towards the offers around the 113.80 levels. Topside offers around the current highs and then continuing through to the 114.20 levels with those offers likely to continue into stronger levels around the 114.50 areas, a possibility of weak stops before the market touches the 114.80 areas and then strong offers from there into the 115.20 areas before the market opens up with the prospect of moving back into the higher ranges from last month. Downside bids light through the 113.00 levels and only limited bids on a move through the 112.80-60 areas, while there is likely to be some bids on a move below there the market is likely to find too much in the way of the 112.20 stronger areas moving through into the 111.80 level.
- AUD: Having seen a cut in the RBNZ interest rate the Oz remained in a tight range through the session dipping in early trading to below the 0.7470 levels and ranging to just above the 0.7480 as the market recovered the opening levels, slightly weaker consumer inflation report was the only real news for the Oz on a lacklustre day, Topside offers through the 75 cent level are a likely to be a little weak until the market moves to the 0.7540 level where the prospect of some stronger offers appear however, with the market now open to the 76 cent levels the market is likely to remain weak until closer to that level. Downside bids light into the 0.7460 areas with those bids likely to continue through the 0.7440 areas however, the possibility of weak stops in the area and a quick move back through the 74 cent remains and the downside is not so strong until closer to the 73 cent levels where better support is likely.
Overnight News
JPY:
Abe Adviser Honda Doesn’t See BOJ Easing Next Week
BOJ’s Kuroda: Impact of Sales Tax Was a Bit Larger Than Expected
Japanese Bought Net 1.5 Trillion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
Japan’s GPIF to Increase Transparency of Investments: Nikkei
KRW:
North Korea Says It Will Liquidate All South Korean Assets
- Korea Fires 2 Short-Range Ballistic Missiles, S. Korea Says
CNY:
China Feb. Consumer Prices +2.3% Y/y; Est. +1.8%
China to Unveil Soil Pollution Control Measures Soon: Official
NZD:
RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Cuts Key Rate to 2.25%: Statement
RBNZ Assumes Global Dairy Prices Begin Rising From 4Q 2016
GBP:
U.K. Feb. RICS House Price Index at 50 vs Est. 50
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision A 2.25% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Feb A -3.40% | C -3.40% | P -3.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Mar A 3.40% | P 3.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Feb A 50% | C 51% | P 49% | R 48%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb A 2.30% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Feb A -4.90% | C -4.90% | P -5.30%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Jan C 19.2B | P 19.4B
12:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.05% | P 0.05%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 5) C 272K | P 278k
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Jan C 0.20% | P 0.10%
19:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Feb C -198.3B | P 55.2B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Euro’s opened around the 1.1010 levels and struggled through the Asian session with cross selling dominating the market and the Euro slipping into the Tokyo session to below the 1.1000 and trading around the 1.0970-80 levels for a long period, the move into the grey hours saw some light buying however, the opening in London saw the market pushing through the lows and attempting to move into the likely weak stops however although the market tested eventually down into the 1.0960 areas the market absorbed the stops and the move into the NYK session saw light selling before the US numbers and once the inventory number was released the USD suddenly became the poor cousin as the market rallied against the USD and the Euro was quickly pushing through the opening levels and steadily testing to the 1.1030 levels,
- GBP: A narrow but choppy day with EURGBP being particularly quiet however, cross JPY trading dominated the Asian session and the Cable slipped lower from the 1.4215 opening levels testing into the Tokyo session around the 1.4200 levels and looking fairly weak, by midsession the market had broken down to the 1.4180 areas and held the level into the London session, better than expected production numbers saw the Cable quickly move higher testing to the 1.4240 before finding sufficient resistance to hold the market, the move to the NYK session saw very little in the way of action with the market remaining centred on the 1.4225 levels for the period before early sellers appeared in the market pushing the market back below the 1.4200 levels, US data saw the market again pushing towards the highs as the inventory number disappointed and the market moved through the bulk of the session holding the 1.4220 areas to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 112.60 levels the market made a little headway in early trading before dropping from the 112.75 levels as Tokyo cross JPY sellers moved into the market and the USDJPY pushed down to the 112.50 areas, dipping into the low 112.40 the balance of the session into the grey hours was pretty dull with the market moving in the 112.50-70 areas, The move into the London session saw a minor push to the 112.20 areas before steadily rallying into the opening in NYK to test the highs of the day, Inventory numbers has little effect on the USDJPY and the market saw a steady rise through the session to push back through the 113.00 levels with little problem and then hold in the 113.40 areas to the close.
- AUD: Oz slipped on the opening after a much lower consumer confidence numbers and traded from the 0.7440 levels down towards the 0.7420 areas before finding a little peace to move into the Tokyo session, AUDJPY selling then sent the pair a little lower and the market dipped below the level however, for the most part that was the range set for Asia and the market gradually moved back to the opening levels into the grey hours, London were quick buyers from the official opening and the Oz saw a steady rise through the first hour or so and tested to the 0.7490 levels before drifting into the NYK session unable to push through the 75 cent levels. Weaker inventory numbers however, were sufficient to chase the Oz through the level and the market having broken through the 0.7510 level triggered some weak stops before trading towards the 0.7530 levels and some light profit taking from the early London buyers to contain the market, late into the session the RBNZ moved the headline interest rate from 2.50% to 2.25% while there was always a chance the market was taken a little by surprise and the Oz was quickly dragged lower by the cut and the NZD dipped, the Oz moved quickly back through the 75 cent level and traded into the close holding the 0.7480 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar A -2.20% | P 4.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Feb A 3.10% | C 3.20% | P 3.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Jan A -3.90% | C -2.80% | P 2.60% | R 2.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb (P) A -22.60% | P -17.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jan A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P -1.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Jan A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P -0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Jan A 0.70% | C 0.20% | P -0.20% | R -0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan A -0.10% | C -0.70% | P -1.70%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Feb A 0.30% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Jan A 0.30% | C -0.20% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 3.9M | C 3.0M | P 10.4M
Good Luck,
Andy
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