Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 101.818 | EURUSD 1.11956 | AUDUSD 0.75635 | NZDUSD 0.72376 | USDCAD 1.30057 | USDCHF 0.97815 | GBPUSD 1.31327 |
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LMAX Ranges 6am London time
Highs   Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12067 | 1.11800
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 102.285 | 101.833
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31400 | 1.31102
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97919 | 0.97741
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75624 | 0.75246
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30241 | 1.29900
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72404 | 0.72104
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09542 | 1.09402
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85390 | 0.85201
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.574 | 113959
For today
- EUR: With NFP later in the weak and a UK bank holiday the market opened sluggishly with USD slightly stronger on the opening and leaving the Euro moving off the 1.1185 areas to steadily make its way to the 1.1200 areas, the market then ranged deep into the Tokyo session around that level eventually pushing through to the 1.1205 areas and holding above the figure for the run into London, Topside offers likely to be light through to the 1.1240 areas and only slightly stronger from then into the 1.1260 areas, a little bit of weakness will possibly see the market pushing to a marginally stronger offering areas from 1.1280-1.1320 before possibly further stops and stronger offers likely from that point on. Downside bids into the 1.1180 areas are likely to be reasonable with weak stops quickly absorbed by congestive bids through to the 1.1140 areas, a strong push through the 1.1080 area will likely see some weak stops appearing, and possibly stronger bids moving in once those are cleared and the 1.1000 acting more as a sentimental support area with any move through then starting to see more bids through into the 1.0950 level.
- GBP: Very quiet for the Cable with the market testing through into the Tokyo session to fill the gap on the charts having opened some 15-20 pips short of the close on Friday, testing to the 1.3140 level before dropping back gently through the session to hold around the 1.3115-20 areas to the London session in quiet trading. Topside offers light through to the 1.3200 levels with likely to be only light offers through the level and the stronger offers possibly around the 1.3250 levels, stops through the level will likely to see stronger offers into the 1.3300 levels before the market opens to the 1.3500 areas. Downside bids Light into the 1.3100 levels however, beyond that will see the market possibly getting stronger as the support to the 1.3000-1.2950 areas begin to kick in with stronger bids likely.
- JPY: With USD opening stronger across the board the USDJPY opened around the 102.00-10 areas and held that area into the Tokyo session pushing slowly through to the 102.20’s before finding sufficient offers to hold the market, very little excitement overall and the USD strength is a follow through of the Jackson Hole commentary from Friday for those that missed it, Topside offers likely to be through to the 102.50 areas and a push through to 102.80 is likely to see some light stops before stronger offers into the 103.00 areas. Downside bids light through to the 100.60-40 levels and likely to increase as the market moves towards the 100.00 areas and the bids likely to continue in some form.
- AUD: Very little change for the Oz on the opening and the market dipped to play catch up as USD strength showed, however, once the market moved into the Tokyo session the Oz started a slow steady recovery to the 0.7550 opening levels off the lows around 0.7525 during a quiet session. Topside offers likely to reappear on a move through the 0.7580 areas however, they are likely to be light at best and the market will then start to see stronger offers into the 0.7640 levels. Downside bids appear through to the 0.7520-00 areas with congestive bids likely to continue through to the 0.7450 areas before the downside opens up a little however, the market did spend several weeks pushing to the 76 cent level so likely to be a continuation through to the 0.7350 areas.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
JPY:
BOJ-GPIF Own Largest Stake in 25% of TSE 1st Section Cos: Nikkei
Japan’s Regional Economy Minister Sees Wages as Key to Abenomics
Japan Public Favours Harder Lines on China, S.Korea: Nikkei Poll
AUD:
Australia’s July Private New Home Sales Fall 9.7% M/m
SGD:
Singapore Steps Up Zika Fight After Confirming 41 Local Cases
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Jul C 0.40% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Jul C 0.30% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Jul P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Jul P 0.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Jul C 0.10% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Jul P 1.60%
Weekend News
JH:
Central Banks Can Use IOR to Push Inflation Higher: Jackson Hole
JPY:
BOJ’s Kuroda Says BOJ ‘Will Act Decisively as We Move on’
KRW/JPY:
- Korea Asked Japan to Establish FX Swap Agreement
JPY:
Abe: Japan to Invest $30 Billion in Africa Over 3 Yrs: Mainichi
Japan Trading Firms to Build Big Power Plants in Africa: Nikkei
Tokyo to Permit Foreigners to Work as Housekeepers, Nikkei Says
CNY:
China July Industrial Companies’ Profit Rises 11% Y/y
China Oil Product Consumption in July Rises 1.2% Y/y, NDRC Says
Shenzhen Exchange Aims H.K. Link Readiness by Early Nov.
China Expels Former Statistics Bureau Head From Communist Party
China Minister Says World Economy Still in Adjustment: Xinhua
EUR:
Coeure Says ECB May Need to Dive Deeper If Governments Don’t Act
Coeure Says ECB’s Monetary Policy Strategy Is Robust, Flexible
Germany Says ECB Bond Purchases Are Distorting Rates: Spiegel
Germany’s Schaeuble Says Low ECB Rates Are Damaging, FAZ Reports
Greece Expects Debt Relief Measures, Tsipras Tells Real News
Spain’s Rajoy Says Repeat Elections Would Be Serious Matter
EUR/GBP:
U.K. Plans Brexit Without Parliament Vote, Telegraph Says
Germany Warns U.K. That Brexit Talks Will Be Very Difficult
USD/RUB:
U.S., Russia ‘Close’ on Deal to End Conflict in Syria: Kerry
CHF:
SNB’s Maechler Tells Blick Negative Rates Remain Important Tool
ZAR:
- Africa’s Guptas, Allies of Zuma, to Sell Local Businesses
EUR/NOK:
Norwegian EU Opposition Steady After Brexit, Poll Shows
AUD:
Australia’s Labour Party Wins Northern Territory Election: ABC
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Moving quietly through the Asian session and through into London with the market holding around the 1.1290 areas for the most part and deviating very little from the opening just above the 1.1280 area, the move into the NYK session saw the market move a little more before the numbers but still contained to the topside around the 1.1310 levels and the opening levels remaining safe, the release of the GDP numbers in NYK saw the market holding steady for the most part. Comments from Jackson Hole from Yellen and then followed by several others saw the market initially drop back to the 1.1250 levels before gapping quickly to the 1.1340 levels as the market seesawed on each sentence before the meat of the communication started to hit and the market dropped steadily through to the 1.1220 levels, the market held the level for a short period before again testing lower and squeezing through the 1.1200 levels to touch the 1.1180 level before recovering only slightly into the closing period. Yellen’s main thrust was that circumstances had improved over the last few months and the case for the rate hike had strengthened.
- GBP: Cable had a slightly wider range through the Asian session and through into the London period, Pushing gradually higher from the opening around the 1.3190 levels and testing lightly through to the 1.3230 areas before drifting a little in the London session, the move into the NYK session and the Yellen comments saw the market touch through towards the 1.3140 levels and then rally strongly taking out some weak stops through to the 1.3280 levels before starting the more steady collapse back through to the lows, the 1.3140 areas held through until the last few hours of the session before making the lows around the 1.3120 areas then finishing the day just off the lows.
- JPY: As with the whole market it was quiet through the Asian session and for the bulk of the London session, with the USDJPY opening just below the 100.60 levels and then struggling to hold the 100.40 through into the NYK session, the market dipped a little from the opening testing to the 100.20 levels on unchanged annual GDP numbers before the Yellen commentary saw the market quickly rise through the 100.80 levels dip back to the 100.10 areas before rising steadily through the next few hours pushing through the 100.80 and weak stops to test initially to the 101.40 levels and then pushing on after a couple of hours to the 101.80 levels and the close.
- AUD: The Oz struggled through the Asian session holding around the 0.7640 areas with a narrow range than any of the other currencies and only really waking up into the NYK session rising slowly to push through the 0.7660 areas and looking to threaten the 77 cent areas, the initial dip to the 0.7610 areas allowed the market to squeeze possibly further than it would have made to test above the 0.7690 levels before steadily pushing down through the levels with weak stops through the 76 cent level quickly absorbed and the market as with the other currencies struggling for a few hours before heading lower again and testing through to the 0.7550 levels into the close in slow trading.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Jul A -0.50% | C -0.40% | P -0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Aug A -0.40% | C -0.40% | P -0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Sep A 10.2 | C 10.2 | P 10
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jul A 4.80% | C 5.00% | P 5.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Jun A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance Jul A -59.3B | C -62.3B | P -63.3B | R -64.5B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q2 (S) A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q2 (S) A 2.30% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Aug (F) A 89.8 | C 90.6 | P 90.4
Stay lucky
Andy
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