Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.474 | EURUSD 1.09084 | AUDUSD 0.76502 | NZDUSD 0.71582 | USDCAD 1.33808 | USDCHF 0.99348 | GBPUSD 1.2248 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09121 | 1.08922
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 104.697 | 104.292
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22516 | 1.22053
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99474 | 0.99338
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76528 | 0.76211
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33956 | 1.3374
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71617 | 0.71436
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08394 | 1.08348
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89294 | 0.89065
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.178 | 113.702
For Today
- EUR: Another quiet session with the Euro drifting from the opening levels around the 1.0910 levels and dipping down through the 1.0900 level and then ranged around the level for the balance of the session, Topside offers into the 1.0940-60 areas likely to be light at best with the better offers likely through the 1.0980-1.1000 levels, little data from the Eurozone but stories running in the FT on UK banks’ exposure to some of the European banks particularly in Italy, possible congestive offers on a move through the 1.1000 areas through to the 1.1050 levels likely to slow any real movement. Downside bids into the 1.0840 areas likely to be reasonably strong with a push through the level likely to see stops appearing and opening the market to a deeper move, with the sentimental 1.0800 level possibly weak.
- GBP: Opening just short of the 1.2250 levels the market was unable to break the topside offers on the move into the Tokyo session and dropped steadily back to the 1.2210 areas before holding in a quiet range around the 1.2210-20 levels into the London session. Topside offers into the 1.2250 levels are not likely to be that strong however, with the past couple of weeks pinned below the 1.2300 level the market is likely to have offers all the way through to that level, possible stops through the 1.2300 levels is likely to see weakness appearing on a move towards the 1.2400 levels and large gains a possibility, downside bids light through to the 1.2100 levels with strong bids possibly in the area however a push through the level could possibly see stops appearing and the market on the downside disappearing again.
- JPY: Early buying saw the market run from the opening 104.50 areas to push to the 104.70 levels before running into sufficient offers on a quiet day to turn the market lower and a steady drift lower, the push took the market eventually to the 104.30 levels for the move into the London session, Downside bids into the 104.00 levels are likely to be light however, the market is talking about USD rallies which I think is more GBP and Euro weakness myself, however, a push through the 103. Level is likely to see congestion interfering with the move lower and the only signal you get from it is that the topside for the moment has failed. Topside offers through to the 105.00 levels are still in play with possible strong stops on a move through the level opening up the topside through to 110.00 but probably not in one move.
- AUD: Yesterdays good news has mostly been ignored and the move through to the Tokyo session with no change on the 24hrs saw the market drifting off the 0.7650 level through to the 0.7620 areas lifting only slightly in a quiet session into London. Topside offers likely through the 77 cent levels and continuing to the 0.7750 areas, a push through the 0.7760 areas will see stops appearing on a push to the 78 cent level and possibly through the area with 0.7840 possibly slowing the move higher. Downside bids into the 76 cent and through to the 0.7590 areas have been sufficient this week to hold the market this week however, below the 0.7580 areas we could see weak stops appearing and the market opening to possibly better bids into the 0.7520 levels.
Overnight News
JPY:
Kuroda: May Not Need to Buy 80t Yen to Keep 0% Target in Future
Kuroda: Any Attempts to Weaken Yen Would Be FX Intervention
Bank of Japan Mulls Delaying 2% Price Target to FY 2018: Sankei
BOJ Iwata: Hard to Say We’ll Hit 2% Inflation During My Term
BOJ Heeds Pleas From Financial Industry: Nikkei
Japanese Bought Net 773.6 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
Japan FSA to Inspect Life Insurer M&A Strategies, Nikkei Says
CNY:
Yuan Won’t Likely Drop Much More Against Dollar: Financial News
China Urges Acceleration of Zombie Cos. Liquidation: Caixin
Yuan Transactions Rose in Swift RMB Internationalisation Tracker
China’s Sept. Industrial Companies’ Profit Rises 7.7% Y/y
China Cos.’ Performance Continues Positive Trend: Stats Bureau
SGD:
PM Lee Warns of Harm to U.S. If TPP Not Ratified: Time
Singapore’s 3Q Seasonally-Adjusted Jobless Rate at 2.1%
HKD:
HKMA to Publish Usages of Yuan Liquidity Facility from Nov. 1
NZD:
N.Z. Trade Deficit Widens to Record After Aircraft Purchase
New Zealand New Mortgage Lending Falls to Seven-Month Low
AUD:
Australian 3Q Export Prices Rise 3.5% Q/Q; Est. 2% Increase
ZAR:
- Africa Will Get to Austerity If Economy Doesn’t Grow: Jonas
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Sep A -1436M | C -1125M | P -1265M | R -1243M
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index Q/Q Q3 A -1.00% | C -0.80% | P -1.00%
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Sep P 1.53
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Sep C 5.10% | P 5.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 (A) C 0.30% | P 0.70%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q3 (A) C 2.10% | P 2.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Aug C 0.80% | P 0.60%
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Retailing Reported Sales Oct C -2 | P -8
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Sep (P) C 0.10% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Sep (P) C 0.20% | P -0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 22) C 261K | P 260K
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Sep C 1.20% | P -2.40%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Opening around the 1.0890 levels the market saw some selling of the Euro against the Oz dipping to the 1.0875 areas before moving back to the opening 1.0890 levels for the move into the London session, London were quick buyers and a push through the 1.0900 levels triggering weak stops and a push through to the 1.0910 levels before slowing with German numbers uninspiring and media speculation on Brexit continuing to dominate some areas, the move towards the NYK session saw the Euro gradually moving through to the 1.0930 levels and a spike towards the 1.0950 areas before dipping back once the US numbers were out of the way and a steady drift to the close remaining above the 1.0900 level.
- GBP: Asia saw early quiet selling especially in the GBPAUD with the Cable dropping from the 1.2190 areas to trade along the 1.2160 area through the session and into London, the rally in the Euro saw Cable tagging along for the ride and pushing quickly through the 1.2200 levels to trigger weak stops on the move to the 1.2220 levels then ranging through to the NYK session holding the 1.2200-20 areas, NYK pushed the market a little higher to range through to the end of the session around the 1.2220-40 levels with the market making a last gasp move towards the 1.2250 area before the close.
- JPY: Narrow range but rangy through the day, opening around the 104.20 levels the market dipped into the Tokyo session to the 104.05 areas and then rallied as the Oz moved higher triggering buying in the AUDJPY cross pushing through to the 104.35 levels however, that was the limit of the market through into the London session, with the move steadily reversing to test into the 104.05 areas again, mid-morning and early data out of the way the market started another steady move to the 104.35 levels to move into the NYK session and dropping back on initial numbers in the US with Wholesale inventories rising a little, again the market moved to the 104.05 areas only to start the steady rise through the session to test the 104.60 levels over the course of the day before relaxing a little and sitting around the 104.50 areas to the close.
- AUD: A quiet move through to the opening in Tokyo with the market pushing the 0.7650 levels, the release of the CPI numbers saw an initial dip for some reason to the 0.7630 level before bouncing quickly to above the 77 cent levels. The market then ranged through the session into London dipping only to the 0.7680 areas before moving into the London session and day traders pushing the market back to the 77 cent levels, the rest of the session saw the drift steadily back to the opening levels with little interest in the session for the CPI speculation.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Sep A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q3 A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q3 A 1.30% | C 1.10% | P 1.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q3 A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q3 A 1.70% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q3 A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q3 A 1.30% | C 1.40% | P 1.30% | R 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Sep A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P -0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Nov A 9.7 | C 10 | P 10
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Sep A 38.3K | C 37.3K | P 37.0K | R 37.2K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance Sep A -56.1B | C -60.6B | P -59.2B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Sep (P) A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P -0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Sep A 593K | C 590K | P 609K | R 575K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -553K | C 2.0M | P -5.2M
Good Luck,
Andy
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