Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.101 | EURUSD 1.06614 | AUDUSD 0.74146 | NZDUSD 0.70613 | USDCAD 1.3320 | USDCHF 1.01066 | GBPUSD 1.2591 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06894 | 1.06567
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.197 | 113.578
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26212 | 1.25699
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01081 | 1.00937
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74328 | 0.74049
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33176 | 1.32864
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71032 | 0.70846
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07899 | 1.07688
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84850 | 0.84605
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.877 | 121.223
For Today
- EUR: As the Euro heads into the final day of the week and the uncertainty surrounding the vote in Italy a vote that is not directly connected to anything other than the upper and lower house the Euro pushed quietly towards the 1.0700 levels in a steady climb from the opening 1.0660 areas, topside offers into the 1.0700 and likely running too the 1.0720 level with weak stops likely before congestive offers into the 1.0740-60 area, a strong move through the level could see the topside 1.0800 opening and the market slightly weaker from there into the 1.0850 areas however, we’d need a good PPI reading and poor NFP, downside bids into the 1.0600 levels are weak and the strength is likely to appear on a move through to the 1.0550 levels with strong stops likely through the level and the downside open to a deep move.
- GBP: A quiet session for Cable with the market initially seeing weak selling into the Tokyo session dipping through the 1.2580 levels before the drag of a rising Euro helped the Cable back through the 1.2600 levels and a rise to the 1.2610 areas to the grey hours. Topside is open to the 1.2690 areas with offers into the area however, those offers are likely to be weak and a move through the area will see light stops and the market then moving into stronger offers into the 1.2760 areas and sentimental offers above that level. Downside bids are light through to the 1.2500 levels where the market finds congestive bids through to the 1.2400 levels a break through the 1.2380 areas could see weak stops appearing and the market opening to another leg lower into the 1.2300-1.2250 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY slipped lower through the early part of the session as weak longs closed positions with the NFP numbers to come later in the day, the early sellers pushed the market down to the 113.60 before the supply was satisfied and the market again started to slowly rise through the session to hold the 114.00 as the market moved into the grey hours. Topside offers into the 114.80-115.00 levels a push through the 115.00 level is likely to find stops appearing quickly and the market pushing for the 115.50 areas with some weak offers and possible stops appearing with the market likely to see stronger offers around the 116.00 protecting the ranges from last year. Downside bids weak through to the 112.00 areas with stops likely to be below the level.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7415 levels the market made steady headway to push through the 0.7430 areas as the early USD selling flowed through the market however, once the USDJPY had finished dropping the Oz started a slow drop back through to the 74 cent areas for the move into London. Topside offers into the 75 cent levels with weak stops through the level and the market opening to lighter offers into the 0.7550-60 areas and then stronger offers as the market approaches the 76 cent level and congestion from then on. Downside bids light through the 0.7400 levels with the market seeing only sentimental bids through to the stronger 73 cent with bids likely to increase on a move through that level once the stops have done there damage.
Overnight News
JPY/USD:
Aso: No Comment on Mnuchin as US Treasury Secretary
JPY:
Japan Cabinet Seen Approving Draft Budget Dec. 22: Nikkei
Japan Mulls More Deficit Bonds to Cover Tax Shortfall: Nikkei
Japan Final 3Q GDP Seen Close to Initial Govt. Estimate: Nikkei
Japan Seen Cutting Tax View in Test for Abenomics: Nikkei
Japan Casino Bill Expected to Pass Committee: Asahi
Shirai Calls on BOJ to Raise Long-Term Rate Target: Reuters
CNY:
China Doesn’t Meet Definition of Currency Manipulator: Bernanke
China Should Firmly Curb Capital Flight, Ex-PBOC Advisor Says
China Regulator Said to Submit Plan for More Regional Exchanges
CNH:
HKMA Says Yuan Deposits Down Noticeably 1st 3 Weeks of Nov.: Rtrs
GBP:
U.K. Could Stay in Customs Union After Brexit, Trade Aide Says
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Nov A 21.50% | C 23.20% | P 22.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Oct A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.60%
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 C 0.30% | P 0.60%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Nov C 52.3 | P 52.6
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Oct C 0.30% | P 0.10%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Oct C -1.00% | P -1.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Nov C 170K | P 161K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Nov C 4.90% | P 4.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Nov C 0.20% | P 0.40%
13:30    CAD      Net Change in Employment Nov  C 0.1K | P 43.9K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Nov C 7.00% | P 7.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Productivity Q/Q Q3 C 1.10% | P -0.30%
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A quiet move through the Asian session with the market pushing from the lows just below 1.0590 and moving to hold around the 1.0600 for the most part moving slowly higher as the market moved through towards the grey hours and a test to the 1.0630 levels before slipping slowly back, the market moved through into the London session holding above 1.0600 and then running through into NYK with brief pushes to the 1.0630 levels, with the European numbers mixed and the focus more towards the votes in France and Italy in particular taking the front seat the Euro’s struggled through holding the levels, the market in NYK saw the Euro return to test the lows but after the US figures had been released and absorbed the Euro started a steady rise higher pushing through the 1.0650 levels into the late session eventually running towards the 1.0670 levels before dipping to the close.
- GBP: Moving quietly through the Asian session saw the market testing eventually through to the 1.2540 levels from the opening around the 1.2510 areas, the move into the London session was muted with the market eventually dipping to the opening levels with the release of the PMI numbers however, it was limited until news that government officials were looking at a move to keep customs union with payments to the European union saw the Cable race quickly higher triggering weak stops along the way and opening stops adding to a push into the NYK session testing towards the 1.2700 levels before running out of steam, and drifting back through to the 1.2600 levels on a busy session for the pair, the market settled eventually to trade around the 1.2580 areas closing just below the 1.2600 levels.
- JPY: Early trading saw the USDJPY pushing to the 114.80 levels before running into strong offers and the opening in Tokyo sending the market trading steadily lower through to the grey hours, the market move through into the London session trading around the 113.90 levels and formed a base for the day, the move into the NYK session saw the market again rising but it was a slow and steady affair and the market saw the same result as the start of the day but eventually saw light profit taking towards the end of the day and tested back towards the 114.00 levels for the close.
- AUD: A quiet range day through to the close with the market opening around the 0.7380 levels and quietly trading through into the London session pushing up through the 0.7400 cent levels and topping out around the 0.7420 areas, this pattern was seen through the day with the market struggling on that 0.7420 areas and only once being able to dip down through the 0.7380 area before finishing the day holding onto the bulk of its gains.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q3 A -1.80% | C 0.10% | P -2.10% | R -2.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Capital Spending excl Software Q3 A -1.30% | C -0.40% | P 3.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Capital Expenditure Q3 A -4.00% | C -2.80% | P -5.40% | R -5.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Nov (F) A 51.3 | C 51.1 | P 51.1
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Nov A 51.7 | C 51 | P 51.2
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Nov A 54.7 | P 54
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Nov A 50.9 | C 50.9 | P 51.2
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Oct A -0.50% | C -2.00% | P -2.30% | R -2.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME PMI Nov A 56.6 | C 54.5 | P 54.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Nov A 52.2 | C 51.4 | P 50.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) A 51.7 | C 51.5 | P 51.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) A 54.3 | C 54.4 | P 54.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) A 53.7 | C 53.7 | P 53.7
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Nov A 53.4 | C 54.4 | P 54.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct A 9.80% | C 10.00% | P 10.00% | R 9.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Nov A -13.00% | P -39.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 26) A 268K | C 252K | P 251K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Oct A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P -0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Nov A 53.2 | C 52 | P 51.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Nov A 54.5 | C 54 | P 54.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -50B | C -49B | P -2B
Good Luck,
Andy
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