Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.803 | EURUSD 1.07584 | AUDUSD 0.76576 | NZDUSD 0.72937 | USDCAD 1.3027 | USDCHF 0.99272 | GBPUSD 1.25283 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07719 | 1.07452
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.233 | 112.51
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25330 | 1.25112
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99391 | 0.99184
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76640 | 0.76394
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30393 | 1.30216
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72955 | 0.72647
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06844 | 1.06754
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86017 | 0.85848
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.682 | 121.093
For Today
- EUR: Limited action as you’d expect on a NFP day with the market opening around the 1.0760 areas and continuing to trade around that level through to the grey hours, brief attempts to the top and bottom sides saw the high just through the 1.0770 levels and the low being made into the 1.0745 area with comments from ECB’s Praet and not just economic. Topside offers through the 1.0820 areas and likely to be a little more resilient than previously expected, with those offers possibly seeing weakness through 1.0830 and then reappearing on a move into the 1.0850 areas with light offers on a move through the level into the 1.0880-1.0900 levels, Downside bids light into the 1.0700 areas and then congestive bids start to appear as the market moves through the sentimental levels. Better bids into the 1.0660-40 and through to a very congested area around the 1.0600 levels.
- GBP: A very quiet session through Asia dipping a little from the 1.2530 opening levels and then trading around the 1.2520 area through to the grey hours, bids at the current levels have possibly been chipped away at however, 1.2500 is likely the strongest point with levels below there sentimental until the 1.2400 level and further strength. Topside offers light through the 1.2550 area and the market does have the potential to squeeze again through the 1.2600 level on any weakness of the NFP however, through the 1.2650 areas the market is likely to meet resistance.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 112.85 areas and ranged a little into the Tokyo session before seeing the market drop back quickly to the 112.50 level and range quietly around the level, BoJ raised a bond purchase by 40B Yen with some chatter indicating more than that however, as the deals were released to the market the USDJPY quickly pushed back above the 113.00 level to hold quietly around the 113.00 having tested the 113.20 areas. Topside offers light through the 113.50 areas, with the market possibly building resistance into the 114.00 area with weak stops likely behind the level and a quick squeeze to the 115 levels, downside bids into the 112.00 areas and with Abe meeting in Washington on the 10-11 Feb the market wonders whether security will be a key to currency stability that Trump is calling for a cessation of the interventions we have seen over the years however, its pure speculation for the moment, a push through the 111.80 levels will likely see stops appearing and the market opening to further weakness with limited sentimental levels through to the 110 handle.
- AUD: There was I thinking that the Oz had started something new, guess not, limited movement but then it is NFP day with the Oz slipping steadily from the 0.7660 level to test the 0.7640 area before holding around the 0.7650 areas to the grey hours, Topside offers through the 0.7690 level is likely to see those offers into the 0.7720 level before weak stops open the market to a test towards the 0.7780-0.7800 stronger offers. Downside bids a little weak into the 76 cent areas and although it took a while to push through the level the return journey could be a little quicker with stop through the level quickly developing into a push to the 0.7520-00 areas.
Overnight News
JPY:
BOJ Offers to Buy Unlimited Amount in Fixed-Rate Bond Operation
BOJ Buys 723.9b Yen of 5-to-10-Yr Bonds in Fixed-Rate Operation
BOJ to Buy 450b Yen of 5-10yr Bonds, Same as Last Operation
Kuroda: BOJ’s Monetary Policy Isn’t Debt Financing for Govt.
Some BOJ Members Wary of Any Precise Range for Managing Yield
Aso Comments on Japan’s Monetary Policy, Yen Spur MOF Correction
JPY/USD:
Japan Govt. Not Planning GPIF Investment in U.S. Infrastructure
USD:
U.S. Said to Plan New Sanctions against Iran After Missile Test
CNY:
PBOC Sells 7-Day, 14-Day, 28-Day Reverse Repos At Higher Rates
PBOC Said to Have Raised Lending Rates on SLF Friday: Reuters
Caixin China Jan. Manufacturing PMI 51; Est. 51.8
China’s Low Default Rates on Local Bonds in 2H ‘Unusual’: S&P
KRW/USD:
S.Korea unlikely to be labelled currency manipulator by U.S. -FinMin
- Korea, U.S. Chiefs Agree to Pursue Thaad Deployment This Year
SGD:
Nikkei Singapore Jan. Whole Economy PMI 51.6 vs 52 in Dec.
NZD:
N.Z. Export Commodity Prices Declined in January, ANZ Says
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Jan A 51 | C 51.8 | P 51.9
08:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Jan C 52.6 | P 52.3
08:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Jan (F) C 53.9 | P 53.9
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Jan (F) C 53.2 | P 53.2
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Jan (F) C 53.6 | P 53.6
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Jan C 55.8 | P 56.2
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Dec C 0.30% | P -0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jan C 175K | P 156K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan C 4.70% | P 4.70%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jan C 0.30% | P 0.40%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Jan C 57 | P 57.2
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Dec C 1.00% | P -2.40%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Limited action through the day with the market opening around the 1.0770 areas and pushing slowly through the Asian session testing towards the 1.0800 levels as the market closed into the London opening, the market then held around the 1.0810 areas through until the London close, numbers in the Eurozone had very little impact and although the market spiked to the 1.0830 areas triggering some weak stops but the move into the close started to see the Euro coming under pressure and drifting back off back through the opening levels to hold around the 1.0760 areas into the close. The Economic bulletin held little, increasing inflation and better economic indications but nothing to really peak the markets interest.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2660 and then holding below the 1.2680 areas through the Asian session, no movement through the grey hours saw the market move higher from the official opening to test through the 1.2700 levels however, the move was limited at best and offers held the day and the market rejected the level dipping back to the 1.2640 areas and clearing out the short term longs, the release of no change by the BoE was no surprise and all though the market immediately spiked to the 1.2700 areas before collapsing back quickly triggering weak stops and weaker longs to get out quickly, while the market seemed to find support into the 1.2600 areas the markets move into the NYK session saw the market again running lower to the 1.2540 before slowing and trading sideways for the rest of the session drifting to a close around the 1.2530 level. While the BoE left rates unchanged with the usual unanimous vote they did mention that they are now in a position to react in either direction and reading between the lines the longer they can hold off raising rates the more momentum that is building within the economy at the current rates will balance some of the negative effects of Brexit.
- JPY: USDJPY slipped steadily lower through the Asian session moving from the 113.25 areas to move to the 113.00 level on the opening in Tokyo, the market held the level for awhile before again drifted to the grey hours pushing the 112.50 areas, the move through the grey hours saw a minimal recovery before the London session entered and pushed it back and the market slipped through to hold the 112.30 areas, the move into NYK saw the market dip through to the 112.10 with US numbers a little better than expected and the market moving off those lows to gradually recover some of the losses. Pres. Trumps commentary and the press releases on conversations with other leaders seems to be causing some consternation against some of the economics for the moment and he is likely to become guilty of what he accuses others of doing.
- AUD: So the day started as any other has done over the past couple of weeks, quietly and with little idea for the next move, as the market moved into the Tokyo session the release of the best trade balance number ever saw the market quickly rise through the 76 cent levels that had been towards the top end of the range and push to the 0.7630 area and having to grind through the level on a move to 0.7650 areas and a long run to the grey hours holding that level, the move into the London session found fresh buyers and moved to the 0.7670 before again stalling and needing the NYK session to push towards the 77 cent areas, the market failed the level unable to push through the 0.7695 areas cleanly and the offers proving to strong, the market then drifted lower through the end of the session to the close around 0.7660 areas but at least off the 75 cent handle.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Jan A 22.60% | C 24.20% | P 23.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Dec A 3.51B | C 2.00B | P 1.24B | R 2.04B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Dec A -1.20% | C -1.80% | P 7.00% | R 7.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Jan A 43.2 | C 43.7 | P 43.1
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Dec A -3.50% | C -0.70% | P 0.90% | R 0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Jan A 52.2 | C 53.8 | P 54.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Dec A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Dec A 1.60% | C 1.20% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target A 435B | C 435B | P 435B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 0–0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0–0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jan A -38.80% | P 42.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q4 (P) A 1.30% | C 0.90% | P 3.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q4 (P) A 1.70% | C 1.90% | P 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 28) A 246K | C 251K | P 259K | R 260K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -87B | C -82B | P -119B
Good Luck,
Andy
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