Untitled

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 114.802 | EURUSD 1.06745 | AUDUSD 0.7542 | NZDUSD 0.69224 | USDCAD 1.34687 | USDCHF 1.01097 | GBPUSD 1.21673 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.07069 | 1.06786

USDJPY                 114.918 | 114.651

GBPUSD               1.21900 | 1.21565

AUDUSD              0.75757 | 0.75343

USDCHF               1.01049 | 1.00744

USDCAD               1.34761 | 1.34435

NZDUSD               0.69445 | 0.69148

EURGBP               1.07963 | 1.07819

EURCHF                0.87872 | 0.87775

EURJPY                 122.881 | 122.594

For today

• EUR: Opening slightly higher from Fridays close, the market moved quietly between the 1.0680-90 levels before slowly grinding higher through to the run to the grey hours finally pushing through the 1.0700 levels slowly, Offers to the Topside continue through the 1.0710 areas with likely weak stops on a push through the areas and then limited congestion on a move towards the 1.0740-60 areas with stronger offers not really showing until closer to the 1.0800 areas with possibly stronger stops on a break through the 1.0820 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.0680 areas with possible weak stops beginning to build in the area and the market open to a quick move back to the 1.0620 areas with light bids moving into the area through to 1.0600 levels, a break through the 1.0580 areas will likely see some stops appearing and the market drifting lower through to the 1.0550 areas.
• GBP: A quiet opening with the market initially testing the 1.2160 levels before slowly making ground with a slow push through to the grey hours to the 1.2190 areas before drifting a little, Topside offers into the 1.2200 levels are likely to be light and the market with a push through the 1.2230 areas possibly opening the market to a small squeeze through to stronger offers in 1.2300 level, very small offers from a break here and the market again open to a quick move towards the 1.2400 levels, however, given this week is when the market see’s article 50 presented and the real negotiations starting the market is likely to be calm for the time being. Downside bids into the 1.2150 areas remain with those bids likely to continue through to the 1.2100 areas and some congestion through to the 1.2000 levels and then the market becomes concerned about large stops building to openin up fresh lows.
• JPY: Limited session for the USDJPY with the market opening a little lower with Moody’s commentary impacting a little the market ranged off its low opening around the 114.70 areas and tested through the 114.90 levels a few times however the move through to the grey hours saw the market testing a little lower into the 114.65 areas before recovering to the opening levels. Topside offers into the 115.00 levels are likely to be limited with stronger offers on a push to the 115.50 areas; a push through the 115.60 areas will likely see some weakness appearing and then stronger offers into the 115.80-116.00 areas with weak stops on a push through the 116.20 areas with limited congestion through to the 116.80 areas. Downside bids light through the 114.60 areas with a break likely to see weak stops and stronger bids on a move back through the 114.00-113.80 areas.
• AUD: The Oz saw limited selling from the opening around the 0.7550 areas pushing to the 0.7335 areas before starting a slow steady rise through to the 0.7575 level before ranging in the 0.7565-75 areas to the grey hours, Topside offers around the 76 cent level likely to be made of small offers but plenty of them with a push through the 0.7660 areas likely to see stronger congestion appearing with only a strong push through 0.7760 areas before stronger stops appear and the market opening to the 78 cent level. Downside bids into the 0.7500 levels likely to be pivotal with a push through the congestion into the area and stops appearing on a move through the 0.7480 areas, and congestion from then on.

Overnight News                                                                  

CNY:

PBOC Official Says No Floor Set on Yuan Rate, FX Reserves: Rtrs

China Outflows to Challenge Policy Effectiveness, Moody’s Says

Chinese Banks Face Liquidity Risk If Outflows Persist: Moody’s

JPY:

Japan Cabinet Approval Rating Falls 5 Ppts to 50%: Mainichi Poll

Japan Jan. Core Machine Orders Fall 3.2% M/m; est. -0.1%

GPIF Calls for New Passive Managers of Japanese Equities

USD:

U.S. Debt-Ceiling Impasses Show Poor Fiscal Management: Moody’s

NZD:

New Zealand House Price Gains Supported by Fewer Listings: REINZ

N.Z. Economists Raise Forecast for 2016-17 Inflation, NZIER Says

N.Z. Opposition Labour Party Won’t Campaign on Tax Increases

AUD:

Australia’s Morrison Says Spoke with Regulators on Housing Debt

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Domestic CGPI Y/Y Feb A -3.20% | C 1.00% | P 0.50%

JPY         Machine Orders M/M Jan A 1.00% | C 0.00% | P 6.70%

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jan A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P -0.40% | R -0.30%

14:00     USD       Labour Market Conditions Index Change Feb P 1.3

Weekend News

CNY/USD:

China Trade Minister Looks Forward to Meeting ‘Excellent’ Ross
China Minister Says Trade War Only Causes Pain Without Gain
CNY:

China Says Macro-Economy Stabilizes, Picks Up in Jan.-Feb.
China Says Central-Govt-Controlled Cos.’ Debt Risks Controllable
China Ministry Says Confident 2017 FDI Can Match Last Year’s
China Foreign Debt Risks ‘Controllable’: PBOC Deputy Governor
USD:

Trump Says U.S. Economy ‘Is Doing Very, Very Well’
Trump’s Clash With Justice Department Sparks `You’re Fired’
Mnuchin Fills Key Treasury Roles That Don’t Need Senate Approval
USD/JPY:

Japan Trade Deal High Priority, Kyodo Cites U.S. Secretary Ross
EUR/USD:

Merkel to Warn Trump Tax Plan Risks German Retaliation: Spiegel
EUR:

Germany’s Schaeuble Sees Space for About EU15b of Tax Cuts: BNN
Deputy PM Says Greek Technical Deal Feasible by March 20: Ethnos
GBP/EUR:

May Urged to Prepare for `Real’ Risk of a No-Deal Brexit
May to Ask EU to Return GBP9b When Article 50 Triggered: S.Times
EUR/TRY:

Dutch Government Bars Turkish Minister from Landing for Rally
TRY/EUR:

Turkey’s Erdogan Calls Netherlands ‘Fascists’ After Flight Ban
EUR/PLN:

Poland Sees EU Politics ‘Double Standards’ After Tusk Vote: SE
JPY:

Japan Trade Website Hacked; 26,000 Email Addresses Maybe Stolen
Tepco Marks Anniversary of Earthquake, Tsunami With Silence
Toshiba Loss May Rise to 1t Yen If WH Bankruptcy Filed: Yomiuri
SGD:

Singapore Bankruptcy Law Changes to Ease Restructurings, ST Says
SEK:

Swedish Finance Minister Sees Shift in Fiscal-Policy Focus: DN
TRY:

Turkey Plans Overhaul of Income Tax, VAT Laws: Anadolu Agency

 

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: Moving quietly through the Asian session trading from the opening 1.0580 areas to test to the 1.0600 areas through into the grey hours, the move into the London session saw the market firmly through the figure area with the German trade balance coming in better than expected, the move through to the NYK session was quiet with the market again testing to the 1.0600 level. NFP came in better than expected however, given the very large ADP number the expectations by the market was greater than the number the market received and the Euro quickly pushed to the 1.0650 areas, the market retreated for a short period before resuming the move and this time a steady grind through to the 1.0700 area late into the day before drifting back to finish around the 1.0670 areas.
• GBP: A quiet range bound day with the market opening around the 1.2160 areas ranging around the level through to the London session, with barely 15 pips into the London session where the range increased but with slightly worse than expected MP numbers countered with a slightly better Trade balance the market dipped to the 1.2140 support levels before rallying into the NYK session, the market continued to range in the 1.2150-90 levels through to the close with the market holding a small gain.
• JPY: Opening around the 114.90 levels the early buyers moved in to push the market through the 115.00 strongly to the 115.20 area and waited till late in the session before triggering some weak stops on the move into the grey hours pushing towards the 115.50 areas from the London opening, the market then ranged for several hours through to the NYK numbers dipping in two runs to the 114.80 areas. The market then moved through to the end of the session extending the lows steadily on each push to finish around the 1114.70 areas in quiet trading.
• AUD: Early trading tested the 75 cent levels pushing into the Tokyo session moving off that low, the move through the Asian session saw the market ranging tightly through deep into the London session around the 0.7520 levels and didn’t break out of the range until the NYK session and the NFP numbers with the USD dropping back across the board, testing through the 0.7550 areas the market then ranged in a wider range but with limited volume through to close just short of its highs.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q1 A 1.1 | C 8.4 | P 7.5

AUD       Home Loans Jan A 0.50% | C -1.00% | P 0.40% | R 0.20%

EUR        German Trade Balance (EUR) Jan A 18.5B | C 18.0B | P 18.4B | R 18.3B

GBP       Industrial Production M/M Jan A -0.40% | C -0.50% | P 1.10% | R 0.90%

GBP       Industrial Production Y/Y Jan A 3.20% | C 3.20% | P 4.30%

GBP       Manufacturing Production M/M Jan A -0.90% | C -0.70% | P 2.10% | R 2.20%

GBP       Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan A 2.70% | C 2.90% | P 4.00%

GBP       Construction Output M/M Jan A -0.40% | C -0.40% | P 1.80%

GBP       Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jan A -10.8B | C -11.1B | P -10.9B

GBP       NIESR GDP Estimate Feb A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.70% | R 0.80%

CAD       Net Change in Employment Feb A 15.3K | C -15.5K | P 48.3K

CAD       Unemployment Rate Feb A 6.60% | C 6.80% | P 6.80%

USD       Change in Non-farm Payrolls Feb A 235K | C 190K | P 227K | R 238K

USD       Unemployment Rate Feb A 4.70% | C 4.70% | P 4.80%

USD       Average Hourly Earnings M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%

Stay lucky

Andy

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.