Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.743 | EURUSD 1.06042 | AUDUSD 0.75591 | NZDUSD 0.69262 | USDCAD 1.34791 | USDCHF 1.01014 | GBPUSD 1.21537 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06206 | 1.06052
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.883 | 114.63
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.21781 | 1.21481
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01010 | 1.00879
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75774 | 0.75551
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34842 | 1.34632
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69408 | 0.69198
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07160 | 1.07111
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87330 | 0.87210
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.959 | 121.640
For Today
- EUR: A slow push from the opening around the 1.0605 areas moving through into the Tokyo session pushing to the 1.0615 areas then ranging around that level through to the grey hours in very quiet trading with the highs just short of the 1.0620 areas. Limited offers through the 1.0640-60 areas with possibly light stops on the move through the level and the 1.0700-20 areas becoming vulnerable on a dovish commentary for the FOMC, a break through the levels will see stronger stops appearing and the market testing the congestion around the 1.0750 areas with 1.0800 expected to be very strong for the moment. Downside bids light through to the 1.0550 areas where the market is likely to see some strong selling on a break towards the 1.0500 areas and possibly strong stops through the 1.0480 areas. With the downside vulnerable the market will likely struggle initially into the 1.0450 areas before opening to the 1.0350 areas.
- GBP: A steady climb higher through the session pushing off the 1.2150 areas to test towards the 1.2176 levels into the grey hours, very quiet trading through the session as you’d expect for an FOMC day with expectations for a rise however, more importantly an indication of the speed of rises to come. Topside offers light through the 1.2200 areas with limited congestion and the market open to a short squeeze higher weak stops on a push through the 1.2220 level and the market seeing limited offers through the 1.2250 that is unless the market backs away from the area on the FOMC with offers likely to move to the 1.2300 areas and stronger levels into the 1.2400 level. Downside bids into the 1.2100 holding so far however, any serious test will see the level break with possibly weak stops through the level and the market quickly opening to the 1.2000 level with limited bids on a move to the area, the market will likely be concerned about another quick drop but question is without the talked about flash crash will the market hold its levels. A break through the level will likely see stronger stops and the market quickly contesting the 115.80-116.20 areas and the market vulnerable to a higher push given the right circumstances. Downside bids light through to the 114.00 areas with congestion in the area however, a push back through the 113.90 areas is likely to see some stronger stops appearing and the market then running into stronger congestion on a move towards the 113.20 levels and stronger bids.
- JPY: A slow opening with early sellers taking the market too its lows and close to the 114.60 areas the move into the Tokyo session saw the market rising quickly through to the 114.80 levels and then struggling towards the 114.90 levels before drifting around the 114.80 areas through to the grey hours. Topside offers likely to be thin through the 115.00 areas with a push through the 115.20 level likely to see weak stops and the market quickly rising to the stronger 115.50 level, A break through the level will likely see stronger stops and the market quickly contesting the 115.80-116.20 areas and the market vulnerable to a higher push given the right circumstances. Downside bids light through to the 114.00 areas with congestion in the area however, a push back through the 113.90 areas is likely to see some stronger stops appearing and the market then running into stronger congestion on a move towards the 113.20 levels and stronger bids.
- AUD: A very limited range for the day with the market opening around the 0.7560 areas and then moving through into the Tokyo session holding those levels and eventually pushing off the 0.7555 lows to trade around the 0.7575 areas. Topside offers into the 76 cent level with weak stops through the level likely to run into stronger offers from the 0.7640 areas onwards with substantial congestion over the previous month to the 77 cent level, a break here is likely to see similar offers continuing with only a strong push through the 0.7750 opening the topside up for further testing. Downside bids congestive around the 0.7550 areas however, the stronger level is likely to be around the 75 cent level with weak stops on a move through the area and sentimental values could hold the key of slowing a decline.
Overnight News
CNY/USD:
China Doesn’t Want Trade War with U.S., Premier Li Says
CNY:
China Seeks Balanced Trade, Never Pursues Trade Surplus: Li Says
China’s Forex Reserves Are Ample, Premier Li Says
Chinese Premier Li Says 2017 Growth Target ‘Not Low’
Predictions of China ‘Hard Landing’ Can Stop, Premier Li Says
China Keeps Opening Up, Supports Globalization: Premier
China Won’t Allow ‘Massive Unemployment’ to Happen, Premier Says
China Foreign-Related Lawsuits Rise on Silk Road Push: Daily
CNY/HKD:
China to Start Bond Connect With Hong Kong This Year: Premier
USD:
Trump Nominates Giancarlo to Lead CFTC; Picks Treasury Posts
Trump Paid $38m in Taxes on Income of $150m: White House
FBI’s Comey to Disclose Whether Trump-Russia Probe Ongoing: CNN
AUD:
RBA’s Harper Says Best to Keep Cash Rate on Hold
Australia March Consumer Confidence Rises 0.1% M/m to 99.7
NZD:
N.Z. Current Account Deficit Narrows on Overseas Investments
SGD:
Singapore GDP to Rise 2.3% in ‘17 vs Dec. Est. 1.5%: MAS Survey
GBP:
57% of Scottish Voters Back Staying in U.K., YouGov Poll Shows
BIS:
FX Markets Susceptible to Flash Events as Liquidity Drops: BIS
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (NZD) Q4 A -2.3B | C -2.43B | P -4.89B | R -5.03B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar A 0.10% | P 2.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jan (F) A -0.40% | C -0.80% | P -0.80%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Feb C 0.40% | P 0.40%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Feb P 0.80%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Feb C 3.2K | P -42.4K
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Feb P 2.10%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jan C 4.80% | P 4.80%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Jan C 2.40% | P 2.60%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q4 C 0.20% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Index Mar C 15 | P 18.7
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Feb C 0.00% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb C 2.60% | P 2.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Feb P 2.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Feb C -0.10% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Feb C -0.10% | P 0.80%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Mar P 65
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Jan C 0.30% | P 0.40%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 8.2M
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A steady drift lower through the day, with the Euro opening around the 1.0655 areas testing in early trading to the 1.0645 areas before recovering into the Tokyo opening and then holding in a tight range through the Asian session around the 1.0655 areas, the move into the grey hours saw the market testing above the 1.0660 levels before dropping quickly back into the grey hours, the market slowly drifted through the London session drifting steadily through to the 1.0625 areas on the move into the NYK session, a weak recovery back to the 1.0645 areas and the end of London saw the market dropping off quickly and the move through the 1.0630 triggering weak stops on a move to the 1.0600 areas testing the bids before running out of time to finish the day just off the lows.
- GBP: With the ability of PM May to issue Article 50 at any time, while the market drifted a little through the Asian session moving from the opening 1.2220 level to hold the 1.2200 the move into the grey hours saw the market drop back sharply with the initial selling pushing to the lower 1.2150’s and then resuming the fall as the early London sellers move in to test to the 1.2110 levels before finding enough support to hold the market the market moved off the lows and steadily rose through the session pushing into the end of London to the 1.2170 levels before ranging through the day around the 1.2150 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY saw limited range as the market awaits the FOMC, trading quietly through the Asian session and lifting top the 114.95 areas in the early run to Tokyo, from there the market drifted a little through to the 114.80 areas and only picked up as the grey hours appeared and the Cable dropped quickly and forced USD higher to take the market quickly towards the 115.20 level before drifting through into NYK, the drop through the 114.85 areas saw weak stops triggered and the market dropping back to the 114.60 areas ranging around the level through to the end of London and slowly rising to the 114.75 areas to the close on limited volume.
- AUD: The Oz slipped a little lower from the opening testing through to the 0.7550 areas on limited volume throughout the day, the market then ranged through to the London session holding the 0.7550-65 areas before dropping steadily into the London opening to extend the lows to the 0.7540, the move through the balance of the day saw the market steadily recovering to test towards the 0.7580 areas however, the market eventually slipped into the 0.7560 areas to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Feb A 7 | P 10
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YTD Y/Y Feb A 6.30% | C 6.10% | P 6.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Feb A 8.90% | C 8.30% | P 8.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales YTD Y/Y Feb A 9.50% | C 10.60% | P 10.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Feb (F) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Feb (F) A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jan A 0.90% | C 1.20% | P -1.60% | R -1.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Mar A 12.8 | C 12 | P 10.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Mar A 77.3 | C 78 | P 76.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Mar A 25.6 | C 19.3 | P 17.1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Feb A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Feb A 2.20% | C 2.00% | R 1.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Feb A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Feb A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.20%
Good Luck,
Andy
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