Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.382 | EURUSD 1.07339 | AUDUSD 0.77093 | NZDUSD 0.69580 | USDCAD 1.33041 | USDCHF 1.00024 | GBPUSD 1.22905 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07462 | 1.07196
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.548 | 113.157
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22974 | 1.22605
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00119 | 0.99848
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77172 | 0.76765
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33128 | 1.32828
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70429 | 0.69869
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07444 | 1.07201
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87476 | 0.87293
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.882 | 121.494
For Today
- EUR: Early buyers saw the market slowly rise through to test above the 0.745 areas from the opening 1.0730 level, however, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market drifting as the underlying fundamentals took over and the market started a slow drift lower to the 1.0720 areas and ranging quietly on decent volume through the session, Topside offers through the 1.0740-60 areas with the congestion continuing to increase with stronger offers on a move through the 1.0780 areas, a push through the 1.0810-20 areas will likely see stronger stops appearing as the market pushes through the 2017 highs with some limited offers into the 1.0840-60 levels. Downside bids light through the 1.0700 levels and weak stops on a move down through the 1.0680 areas with limited congestion likely and better bids on a move through to the 1.0640 levels, a break through to the 1.0620 areas will likely see a mixture of stops and bids and the 1.0600 level is likely to be stronger bid wise and likely to be congested through the level.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2290 areas the market drifted through the session testing slowly to the 1.2260 before holding around the 1.2270 with decent volume in most of the G10 this was possibly the exception to the rule and very quiet. Topside offers through the 1.2300 levels with weak stops on a push through the 1.2310 areas with limited offers into the 1.2350 areas and stronger offers likely into the 1.2400 level with congestion likely through to 1.2450 areas. Downside bids light through the 1.2200 levels with very limited stops on a move through the level and the market strong with bids into the 1.2150 areas and likely to continue through to the 1.2100 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY ranged around the 113.40 areas for the most part with limited selling on the Tokyo opening chasing the market just below the 113.20 areas and basing off the levels through the rest of the session, Topside offers light into the 114.00 areas with possible weak stops on a move through and nothing particularly strong until the 114.60-80 areas and likely increasing into the 115.00 area, downside bids strong through to the 113.00 areas with weak stops likely on a break below the 112.80 however, congestive bids through from that point and likely to continue down into the stronger 112.00 areas.
- AUD: The Oz made early attempts to push through the 0.7720 areas however, the offers curbed the movement and the release of the CNY saw the Oz drifting from the highs and trading steadily lower through to the grey hours testing the 0.7680 areas and moving through to the 0.7690, Topside offers into the 0.7735 areas and likely to continue on a move through towards the 0.7750 areas before the market opens a little on a break of the 0.7760 level, stronger offers likely to reappear around the 78 cent level, downside bids light through to the 0.7660 areas and likely to see weak stops on a move back through the levels with bids now a little thin around the 76 cent areas, a test through the 0.7580 areas could see weak stops appearing and the market quickly moving to test the 75 cent level.
Overnight News
CNY:
PBOC Says OMO Rate Hike Doesn’t Mean Monetary Policy Change
PBOC Raises Interest Rates in Open-Market Operations
China PBOC Says No Need to Over-Interpret Monetary Tools Action
JPY:
BOJ Maintains 10-Year JGB Yield Target at About Zero Percent
Aso Pushes Need for Free Trade Commitment head of G-20 Meeting
Japanese Sold Net 703.9 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
JPY/USD:
Japan Carmakers Will Consider U.S. Policies Seriously: Saikawa
AUD:
Australian Employment Fell 6,400 in Feb.; Est. 16,000 Gain
NZD:
New Zealand Economy Grew Less Than Forecast in Fourth Quarter
New Zealand Plans Changes to Law Governing Dairy Industry
EUR:
Rutte Says Netherlands ‘Said Stop’ to Wrong Sort of Populism
’No Nexit’ Says Italy’s PM as Heads of State Congratulate Rutte
USD:
Trump Proposes Historic Cuts Across Government to Fund Defence
Trump Says Court’s Decision to Block Travel Ban ‘Flawed Ruling’
Trump’s Second Travel Ban Is Blocked by U.S. Judge
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.40% | C 0.70% | P 1.10% | R 0.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Mar A 4.00% | P 4.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Feb A -6.4K | C 16.3K | P 13.5K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 5.90% | C 5.70% | P 5.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Monetary Policy Statement A -0.10% | P -0.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate C -0.75% | P -0.75%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range C -1.25% | P -1.25%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range C -0.25% | P -0.25%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Feb C 0.40% | P 0.40%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Feb (F) C 1.80% | P 1.80%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Feb (F) C 0.90% | P 0.90%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.25 | P 0.25%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Mar C 435B | P 435B
12:00    GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:00    GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jan C 9.45B | P 10.23B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Feb C 1.26M | P 1.25M
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Feb C 1.26M | P 1.29M
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims C 245K | P 243K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey Mar C 25 | P 43.3
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -68B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A slight rise from the opening testing from the 1.0605 levels and falling short of the 1.0620 areas through to the grey hours, the Asian session spent much of the time in the 1.0610-20 levels and only lifted as the market moved into the grey hours, limited volume through the day until the FOMC release however, London managed to push to the 1.0640 areas and the market ranged through to the release holding a 30 pip range around the 1.0625 areas, the release saw the market move off the 1.0630 level and quickly saw the USD dropping back with the Euro running to the 1.0680 areas with the rise as expected the all important communique was not what the market had really expected with the financial guru’s expecting a further 3 raises over the course of the year however, the signal was only 2 further rate hikes if circumstances dictate, the market pushed through the 1.0710 levels eventually and triggered weak stops on a run to the 1.0740 areas before holding a tight range to the close around the 1.0730 level.
- GBP: A quiet range through the Asian session with the market drifting from the opening from the 1.2155 levels before slowly rising through to the grey hours and the news that the SNP’s attempt to have a new referendum on Scottish independence had been squashed until after Brexit is completed and a poll indicates that if there was one currently the result would be very little different from the previous vote, this saw the Cable squeeze quickly higher through the 1.2260 areas before settling back to range in the 1.2220-40 level through into the London session, better than expected unemployment numbers did little for the market with the release seeing the market dip back through the 1.2200 levels however, pressure on wages continues to move in the opposite direction putting back further any idea of a rate increase and the market dipped to the 1.2180 levels before slowly recovering through the 1.2200 areas to range to the 1.2220 level to the FOMC release, Cable rallied quickly through to the 1.2260 areas before slowing and then trading in a slower manner to above the 1.2300 areas and stiffer offers, the market ranged around the 1.2290 areas to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY spent much of the day ranging between the 114.60-85 areas through Asia and into the London session the market pushed above the 114.80 levels into the Tokyo session but was lacking any motivation to do anything major until the FOMC release, the move through the London session saw the market testing the 114.60 areas with the market again pushing towards the topside of the range on the opening of NYK, the move to the FOMC saw the market testing a little through the lows and the release as with the other pairs saw the USD dropping quickly testing to the 114.00 level and pausing before continuing through to the 113.20 areas, the market continued to range around the 113.20 level with minor dips below the level before rising a little into the close.
- AUD: A slow steady rise through the Asian and London session testing from the low opening around the 0.7560 areas to push through into the NYK session testing a little above the 0.7600 level, the release of the FOMC and communique saw the market quickly rise to the 0.7660 levels and the slower following rise took the market quietly but strongly through the 77 cent level to run into the congestive offers above the level and holding the 0.7720 levels through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (NZD) Q4 A -2.3B | C -2.43B | P -4.89B | R -5.03B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar A 0.10% | P 2.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jan (F) A -0.40% | C -0.80% | P -0.80%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Feb A -0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Feb A 1.30% | P 0.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Feb A -11.3K | C 3.2K | P -42.4K | R -41.4K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Feb A 2.10% | P 2.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jan A 4.70% | C 4.80% | P 4.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Jan A 2.20% | C 2.40% | P 2.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q4 A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Index Mar A 16.4 | C 15 | P 18.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Feb A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb A 2.70% | C 2.60% | P 2.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Feb A 0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.40% | R 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Feb A 0.20% | C -0.10% | P 0.80% | R 1.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Mar A 71 | C 65 | P 65
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Jan A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -0.2M | C 3.3M | P 8.2M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 0.75%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Press Conference
Good Luck,
Andy
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