Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.31 | EURUSD 1.07659 | AUDUSD 0.76781 | NZDUSD 0.69747 | USDCAD 1.33188 | USDCHF 0.99644 | GBPUSD 1.23607 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07747 | 1.07648
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.493 | 113.285
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23576 | 1.23438
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99697 | 0.99611
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76900 | 0.76636
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33253 | 1.33148
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69985 | 0.6976
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07365 | 1.07256
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87264 | 0.87126
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.252 | 122.031
For Today
- EUR: A very quiet session as we move into Friday, with the market moving off the opening 1.0765 areas in a gradual push through to the 1.0775 level and I’m afraid that defined the range for Asia with very limited movement and volume, Topside offers through the 1.0780 areas and continuing through the 1.0800 areas with stops possibly above the 1.0820 areas and the market is likely quickly to test into the 1.0860 areas and possibly stronger congestive offers on a run towards the 1.0880 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.0700 areas with congestive bids continuing through the level with possible light stops and the market seeing stronger bids through to the 1.0660-40 areas, with continuing mixture of bids and stops appearing through to the better bids around the 1.0600 level.
- GBP: Quiet session with limited volume for Cable saw the market range around the 1.2350 levels having slipped slightly from the opening levels in the run to Tokyo, with topside offers immediately above the current levels the market is likely to see congestive offers above the 1.2400 and limited stops appearing in the mix with the market likely to be particularly strong around the sentimental levels on a run to the stronger 1.2500 areas. Downside bids light into the 1.2300 levels with possible light stops on the move through and congestive bids into the 1.2250 areas any move towards the 1.2200 areas is likely to find interest to buy with the 1.2200-1.2150 likely to have become particularly strong after yesterday’s Forbes vote.
- JPY: A slow day with the USDJPY moving higher through the session having opened around the 113.30 areas the market slowly moved into the Tokyo session testing the 113.40 levels and the fixing demand took the market to the 113.50 areas and unable to find enough interest to push through the level, Topside offers light through the level and likely weak stops appearing on a push through the 114.00 areas however, there is likely to be plenty of congestive offers to push through on any move into the 114.60 areas and then limited offers through to the stronger 115.00 areas with possibly strong offers on a break through there and into the 115.50 levels. Downside bids into the 113.30-00 level are likely to be strong with weak stops on a move through the level and the market then open again to a deeper test through to the strong 112.00-111.80 areas.
- AUD: Early seller saw the Oz drop back from the opening around the 0.7675 areas and test through to the 0.7665 level as the market did yesterday however, the move into the Tokyo session saw limited buying of the AUDJPY cross through the session and the Oz benefitted from that buying on its move to the highs around the 0.7690 levels before holding quietly into the grey hours around the 0.7685 level. Topside offers limited until the 0.7720 areas where the market starts to see stronger offers moving in with congestion through to the 0.7750 areas and weak stops and breakouts appearing for the technically minded, a push through the 0.7780-0.7800 levels will see some minor resistance appearing however, the push through the 0.7840-60 will likely see strong buying appearing and the market opening to a larger move. Downside bids light but congestive on a run back to the 76 cent level with possibly lighter but plentiful bids appearing on the dip through however, those bids are likely to continue while not earthshattering any move is probably take quite a bit of time to grind through the levels.
Overnight News
USD:
Mnuchin Softens Brazen U.S. Trade Talk in Global Stage Debut
G20:
G-20 Deputies Said to Complete Draft Finance-Chiefs Communique
JPY:
Foreign Ownership of Japan T-Bills Exceeds 50% for First Time
Japanese Public Pensions Own Record Foreign Securities in 4Q
MOF May Raise JGB Primary Dealer Minimum Bid Requirement: Rtrs
Abe’s Wife Said She Didn’t Make Donation to School: Suga
Japan Not Considering Public Funds for Toshiba Revival: Suga
CNY:
China Should Be Wary of Fed Rate Hike Spill over Effects: Daily
China CBRC Eases Foreign Bank Entry for Govt. Bond Underwriting
NZD:
New Zealand PMI Shows Manufacturing Growth Rebounded in February
New Zealand Consumer Confidence Declined in March, ANZ Says
SGD:
Singapore’s Exports Surge Most in Five Years, Beating Forecasts
GBP:
U.K. Consumer Spending to Slow Sharply in Coming Years, PwC Says
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Feb A 55.2 | P 51.6 | 52.2
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jan C 22.3B | P 24.5B
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jan P 2.30%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Feb C 0.30% | P -0.30%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Feb C 75.50% | P 75.30%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Mar (P) C 97 | P 96.3
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Feb C 0.20% | P 0.60%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet day for the Euro for the most part with the market rising a little into the Tokyo session before losing any momentum it had to drift away from the 1.0745 levels to drift through the opening 1.0730’s and testing the 1.0720 areas through to the grey hours, the market returned to the opening levels before slipping back from the opening in London and testing back through the 1.0710 areas with nothing special particularly in the numbers the market struggled from those lows to slowly move through into the NYK session pushing again towards the 1.0740 areas, once London closed the market dipped again to test the lows, ECB’s Nowotny then hints at the possibility of a rate increase, and not really surprising given the German push, the market jumped from the 1.0710 areas and quickly made the 1.0750 areas with some weak stops cleared to push to the 1.0771 level and a quiet finish to the close.
- GBP: A quiet move through the Asian session with the Cable losing ground in a steady drift to test the 1.2260 level, the move into the grey hours saw some light buying to push back to the opening levels and the opening in London saw the market testing back through the 1.2250 levels and just holding the 1.2240 areas into the rate announcement, no surprise for the actual announcement with the rate remaining at 0.25% however, a change in views as Forbes strongly contested the no change and wanted to at least start the push for a rise, the result saw the market quickly rise through the 1.2300 likely triggering weak stops but indistinguishable as the market quickly pushed to above the 1.2330 levels slowing a little and testing to the 1.2370, the market generally ranged through to the close between the 1.2350-70 areas with brief pushes towards the 1.2380 level but the market struggled for further momentum and closed around the 1.2360 areas.
- JPY: A choppy but range bound day for the USDJPY opening around the 113.40 levels the market drifted off the early highs around the 113.55 area into the Tokyo session, the move through Asia saw a recover to the opening levels but struggled as the market moved into the Tokyo lunch period slipping into the grey hours testing the lows again, early London tested the downside pushing through to the 112.90 level before rising just as quickly back above the 113.30 level on the opening, the market then ranged around the 113.25-50 areas through into the NYK session with on minor dip on the initial jobless claims number and everything not to far off the mark, the market again tested the downside barely scrapping through the 113.00 level this time and running back off the lows to the 113.25-40 areas to finish the day in the middle of the range.
- AUD: The Oz drifted from the opening but held around the 77 cent level, Tokyo were quick buyers taking the market too its highs testing through the 0.7715 levels and the release of employment data, the market moved lower on the negative employment change and although the move was limited the market continued trading lower through until the run to the grey hours where the market started to recover from the lows, the move through into the London session saw early buyers chasing the market back to the highs and again failing for the second time with London opening quickly selling the market back to the 0.7680 areas and a quiet range to the NYK session, and a steady drift lower through the day to make fresh lows around the 0.7665 areas and rising only slightly from those lows.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.40% | C 0.70% | P 1.10% | R 0.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Mar A 4.00% | P 4.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Feb A -6.4K | C 16.3K | P 13.5K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 5.90% | C 5.70% | P 5.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Monetary Policy Statement A -0.10% | P -0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate A -0.75% | C -0.75% | P -0.75%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range A -1.25% | C -1.25% | P -1.25%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range A -0.25% | C -0.25% | P -0.25%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Feb A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Feb (F) A 2.00% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Feb (F) A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.25 | C 0.25 | P 0.25%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Mar A 435B | C 435B | P 435B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 1–0—8 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0–0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jan A 6.2B | C 9.45B | P 10.23B | R 10.21B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Feb A 1.29M | C 1.26M | P 1.25M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Feb A 1.21M | C 1.26M | P 1.29M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims A 241K | C 245K | P 243K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey Mar A 32.8 | C 25 | P 43.3
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -53B | C -60B | P -68B
Good Luck,
Andy
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