Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.933 | EURUSD 1.06744 | AUDUSD 0.76409 | NZDUSD 0.70079 | USDCAD 1.33435 | USDCHF 1.00118 | GBPUSD 1.24702 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06886 | 1.06731
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.197 | 111.701
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25085 | 1.24706
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00142 | 1.00012
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76565 | 0.76403
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33466 | 1.33316
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70038 | 0.69812
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06931 | 1.06886
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85652 | 0.85449
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 119.813 | 119.387
For Today
- EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro with the market rising only slightly through the session with the market testing to the 1.0690 levels before drifting back to hold around the 1.0680 just above the opening levels, Topside offers light through the 1.0700 levels with possible weak stops on a push through the 1.0720 areas however, offers are likely to continue through to the 1.0760 areas with further offers likely through the 1.0800 areas, Downside bids into the 1.0650 areas with stops on a move through the area and better bids into the 1.0600 areas, the market beyond is likely to be congested through to the 1.0500 areas and limited for the moment.
- GBP: Light buying from the opening around the 1.2460 areas moving quietly to the 1.2480 areas into the Tokyo session, once the CNY numbers were released the market saw a brief move higher through the 1.2500 levels before slipping back and steadily rising to range around the 1.2490 levels on quiet trading through to the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.2520 levels are likely to be limited having seen the level broken recently and having been tested in the past 24hrs, a push through will likely see weak stops and the market open to the 1.2550 areas and some limited congestion with the 1.2600 vulnerable to a test with possibly strong offers remaining in the area, with limited offers on a push through the level.
- JPY: Opening around the 111.85 levels the market slipped lower through into the Tokyo session testing the 111.70 levels briefly before breaking back above the 111.90 areas and triggering some weak stops on a move through towards the 112.00 area to attempt a push through to the 112.20 areas before ranging through the session holding above the 112.00 area. Some congestive offers at the highs so far with those offers likely to continue through to the 112.50 levels with a slight increase in the offers with possible weak stops through the level with the stronger 113.00-30 areas on top. Downside bids light through to the 111.50 areas with limited support before opening the market for a further test to the downside 111.00 areas and weak stops below.
- AUD: The Oz remains becalmed with the market opening around the 0.7640 levels and basing on that level through the session, the market did manage to make highs above the 0.7655 areas but the attempts were limited and no strength in the moves, downside bids into the 76 cent levels with congestion through the level and the market likely to remain bid on any move through to the 0.7550 and ultimately the 75 level where the market pushed to earlier this month, any breach of that level will likely see stops appearing and the downside quickly opening, Topside offers are pretty much the same with offers appearing into the 77 cent levels and then strong congestion through the level to continue to the 0.7750 areas and possibly strong stops on a move through the level which will likely see the 78 cent levels quickly exposed.
Overnight News
ZAR:
Zuma’s Cabinet Overhaul Risks ANC Split, Investment Downgrade
- Africa’s EFF Party Seeks Urgent No Confidence Vote in Zuma
CNY:
China March Manufacturing PMI Rises to Highest Since April 2012
USD/CNY:
Trump: China Meeting Will Be ‘Difficult,’ Citing Trade, Jobs
China Says Xi, Trump Meeting to Be ‘New Starting Point’ For Ties
China Says Will Push for ‘Greater Balance’ in Trade With U.S.
USD:
Fed’s Dudley Says Not a Huge Gap Between Committee, Kashkari
JPY:
Japan Feb. Core Consumer Prices Rise 0.2% Y/y; Est. +0.2%
Japan Feb. Unemployment Rate at 2.8%; Est. 3%
Japan Feb. Industrial Production Rises 2% M/m; Est. +1.2%
Japan’s Aso Doesn’t Think Toshiba Is Going to Go Bankrupt Soon
GBP:
U.K. March GfK Consumer Confidence -6 vs Est. -7
AUD:
Australia Feb. Credit to Business, Consumers Rose 0.3 % M/M
Morrison Says APRA’s New Mortgage Measures to Provide Stability
NZD:
New Zealand Home-Building Approvals Jump Most in Eight Months
New Zealand Business Confidence Decline Led by Construction: ANZ
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Feb A 14.00% | C 0.80% | P 201%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Mar A -6 | C -7 | P -6
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 2.80% | C 3.00% | P 3.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Feb A -3.80% | C -1.60% | P -1.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar A -0.40% | C -0.20% | P -0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Feb (P) A 2.00% | C 1.20% | P -0.40%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NBNZ Business Confidence Mar A 11.3 | P 16.6
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Mar A 51.8 | C 51.7 | P 51.6
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Mar A 55.1 | P 54.2
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Feb A -2.60% | C -1.20% | P 12.80%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Feb C 0.70% | P -0.80%
06:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nationwide House Prices M/M Mar C 0.30% | P 0.60%
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Mar C -10K | P -14K
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Mar C 5.90% | P 5.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (GBP) Q4 C -16.0B | P -25.5B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) C 0.70% | P 0.70%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Jan C 0.70% | P 0.80%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Total Business Investment Q/Q Q4 (F) C -1.00% | P -1.00%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar C 1.80% | P 2.00%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Mar (A) C 0.80% | P 0.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Jan C 0.30% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Feb C 0.40% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Feb C 0.20% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Feb C 0.10% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Feb C 2.10% | P 1.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Feb C 1.70% | P 1.70%
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Mar C 57 | P 57.4
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Mar (F) C 97.6 | P 97.6
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Early trading was dominated to some extent by comments from Fed’s Rosengren and Williams on further increases with both stating that 4 would be the number for the year however, the impact was limited and the Euro dipped slowly from the 1.0770 opening area through to test the 1.0750 levels for several hours, before slipping through to test into the low 40’s the move through to the grey hour saw the market moving back off the low and testing back to the opening levels in the run to the London opening, London were quick sellers with both the Euro and Cable suffering from the diatribe coming out of some of the officials on both sides of the channel, Euro’s slipped down to trade around the 1.0740-30 areas for a long run into the NYK session with Confidence numbers below expectations and weaker German CPI numbers limiting the impact later in the session, NYK took the market to the supportive 1.0720 levels and the market rebounded a little before slipping back from the 1.0750 levels to again test into the 1.0720 areas, late in the session saw BofFinland comment on ECB continuing highly accommodative monetary policy and the carpet was pulled from under the Euro with the market dropping quickly through the 1.0700 level and then trading to the 1.0680 to the close.
- GBP: A very tight range through the Asian session with the market struggling with the 1.2450 levels on the Topside but holding around the 1.2435 areas and 1.2440 opening level for the move into the grey hour, with the above mentioned you can and can’t do this that and the other until you’ve paid 60Bio into the black hole of the EU the Cable slipped slowly down through to test towards the 1.2410 levels into the early Morning in London, with both sides heading for the first of probably many standoffs the Cable benefitted for the first time possibly because the UK wants to get on with it and as we’ve seen in the past, getting a decision from the EU in a timely fashion is not something you’d hold your breath for however, the Cable moved off the lows steadily through to the NYK period and early buyers appeared on a move through to the 1.2480 areas before pausing for the US numbers, slightly stronger GDP figures countered by weaker Jobless claims saw the market benefit the GBP again with Cable rising on the USD move higher dragging GBP with it and then its fall back taking GBP higher again to push easily through the 1.2500 levels and testing slightly through the 1.2520 before slipping slowly lower through the balance of the session to run to a close around the 1.2470 areas.
- JPY: The USDJPY pushed higher from the opening 111.00 areas and was steadily testing the 111.40 through to the mid-Tokyo session before running out of steam, the market drifted through to the London session slipping back to the opening levels and dipping through the figure on the London open however, that was the low of the day and the market while quiet for the most part eased steadily higher through the session with the release of the US numbers seeing the market test above the 111.50 levels and then drop back to the 111.00 area in a quick move before again settling into a steady push through to the 111.50 levels in the back end of the session, with the Euro dropping quickly after the BofFinland Comments the USD saw a steady rise through to the close with light stops through the 111.50 levels and seeing only limited offers on its final moves to the 111.90 areas and stronger offers into the close.
- AUD: And the Oz, dare I say another range bound day with the market opening around the 0.7670 levels and unable to challenge the topside with any seriousness and dominated by the AUDJPY cross throughout the day, it moved through the Tokyo session pushing the 0.7675 levels before dropping back after the market failed the levels to test the 0.7655 areas for the move into London, the grey hours saw the early sellers appear however, the move through to the London opening saw the 0.7650 levels holding and the market moved slowly through the session with limited buying back of the early shorts taking the market into the NYK session testing through the highs to just below the 0.7680 areas to provide the high of the day, with the USD stronger through the last few hours of trading the Oz slipped back and with limited stops on the move through the lows tested to the 0.7645 areas towards the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Mar A 107.6 | C 105.8 | P 107.2 | R 106.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Mar A 0.82 | C 0.87 | P 0.82
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Mar A 107.9 | C 108.3 | P 108
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar A 1.2 | C 1.4 | P 1.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Mar A 12.7 | C 14 | P 13.8 | R 13.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar (F) A -5 | C -5 | P -5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Mar (P) A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Mar (P) A 1.60% | C 1.80% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Annualized Q4 (T) A 2.10% | C 2.00% | P 1.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q4 (T) A 2.10% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims Mar 25 A 258K | C 245K | 261K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Feb A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.40% | R 0.60%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb A 1.20% | C 0.80% | P 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -43B | C -42B | P -150B
Good Luck,
Andy
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