Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.858 | EURUSD 1.07108 | AUDUSD 0.74971 | NZDUSD 0.70032 | USDCAD 1.34847 | USDCHF 0.99817 | GBPUSD 1.27777 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07278 | 1.07097
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.064 | 108.813
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28082 | 1.27731
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99854 | 0.99697
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75109 | 0.7493
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34862 | 1.34722
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70446 | 0.70012
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06958 | 1.06926
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83873 | 0.83744
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 116.905 | 116.569
For Today
- EUR: Euro’s held a tight range in a quiet session with the market moving off the lows to test through the session to the 1.0720 levels, Topside offers into the 1.0740-60 areas with congestive offers and increasing offers as the market moves through to the 1.0780-1.0800 levels with stops likely on a move through the 1.0820 areas to open up a test through the 1.0850 areas with only light offers likely into the area, this then leaves the 1.0900 areas vulnerable to a test. Downside bids light through the 1.0700 areas with possible weak stops on a move through to the 1.0680 areas and congestive bids on a move into the 1.0650 areas with stronger bids into the 1.0600 levels.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.2780 areas pushing to the 1.2790 areas into the Tokyo session before drifting a little through the into the mid-session testing to the 1.2775 areas, with a strong election poll favouring the incumbent Government the Cable started a slow and steady rise through towards the 1.2800 levels as the market moved towards the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.2800 areas with nothing particularly strong in the way until the market moves towards the 1.2850 areas, a push through the 1.2860 areas could see weak stops appearing and the market open to a test of the 1.2900 levels and stronger offers with strong stops likely to be close behind the level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2700 area weak stops through the level will likely see the market dipping quickly through to the 1.2630 areas where stronger bids are likely to appear.
- JPY: Tensions seem to be ebbing for the moment and the USD has found limited ability to rise over the past 24hrs area, opening around the 108.85 areas saw the market initially test the 108.80 areas before slowly rising through the first half of the Tokyo session to push through the 109.00 areas to peak around the 109.05 areas before holding around the 109.00 level through to the grey hour. Topside offers likely into the 109.20 with a push through to the 109.30-40 areas are likely to see weak stops appearing and the market able to test through to the 109.80 areas and stronger offers possible through to the 110.20-30 with some limited congestion on a rise to the 109.50 areas. Downside bids through the 108.60 areas with bids continuing lightly through to the stronger area into 108.20 levels, weak stops through the 108.00 and the market seeing limited bids into the 107.50 levels.
- AUD: The Oz saw limited buying pushing the market off the lows and the 0.7490-95 base line that the market held through the NYK session however, the move was a quiet one and the rally was only to the 0.7510 areas with the market again holding in a very tight range through to the grey hour, Downside bids into the 0.7500-0.7480 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 0.7470 levels and possibly limited bids into the 0.7450 areas with the stronger bids on a move towards the 74 cent level. Topside offers light through to the 0.7560 areas with possibly stronger offers through into the 76 cent areas and weak stops through the level.
Overnight News
IMF:
IMF says Trump corporate tax cuts could lead to financial risk taking
CNY:
China’s Li says EU and China must promote free and fair trade
Indices:
S&P and Nasdaq rise on bank and tech gains
Europe: results, banking sector bounce helps shares recover
AUD:
Turnbull tightens Ozzie citizenship test in migration crackdown
GBP:
May’s Conservatives lead in latest election YouGov poll The Times
JPY:
Japan March exports rise 12% YoY MoF
NZD:
NZ inflation hits 2.2% in Q1, highest in five years
USD:
Moderate rise in US economy, but job shortages spread: Fed
Fed’s Fischer says rate hikes unlikely to roil world markets
RUB/USD:
Putin linked think tank drew up plan to sway 2016 US election documents
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q1 A 1.00% | C 0.80% | P 0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Mar A 0.17T | C 0.61T | P 0.68T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q1 A6 | P 5
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Mar C 0.20% | P 0.20%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Mar P 3.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (APR 15) C 241K | P 234K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Apr C 25.6 | P 32.8
14:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr (A) C -5 | P -5
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Mar C 0.20% | P 0.60%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 10B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet range through the day with the market opening around the 1.0730 levels and pushing above the 1.0735 level only twice through to the close, the market in Asia saw early highs in Tokyo before the market steadily drifted lower through to the 1.0720 areas and drifted into the London session, testing through the 1.0715 areas and pushing quickly to test the highs in early trading with a better trade balance number helping, however, while CPI numbers improve in the Eurozone areas much of the gain is causing pain in Germany and the market drifted back to the 1.0710 levels the market again struggled higher to the opening levels before holding quietly through into the NYK session, the market drifted through the session testing the 1.0700 levels before holding in a range through to the 1.0710 areas.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.2840 areas and early Tokyo took it close to the 1.2860 levels in early trading before then drifting through the Tokyo session to base along the 1.2820 areas before moving into London again pushing to the opening levels through into the NYK session, steady profit taking and concerns rising about the wisdom of the snap election left the market adrift in limited volume, the market eventually settled in a tight range around the 1.2780 areas dipping to the 1.2770 areas and finishing just off the lows.
- JPY: USDJPY opened just off the lows with GBPJPY buying helping the USDJPY initially to the 108.70 areas before returning to the 108.40 areas into the mid-session period, the market then made steady headways to move into the London session pushing through the early highs, the market continued to slowly make headway but it was slow with the market eventually testing the 109.00 areas into the NYK opening and for the second day peaking around the 109.20 areas before finding resistance and slipping back through the 109.00 level, some small weak stops took the market into the 108.90 areas and then slipping to the 108.70 on a move through towards the close to finish just above the 108.80 areas.
- AUD: The Oz struggled through the early part of the session holding the opening levels around the 0.7560 areas, before dropping back as the AUDJPY cross pushed through the 200DMA (Daily Moving Average) forcing the Oz to the 0.7530 areas and slowly slipping through the level to push into the London session holding the 0.7505 areas, London attempted to buy however the recovery was limited to the 0.7525 level before slipping slowly lower again as the market entered the NYK session, the market pushed through the 75 cent level however, it held in a tight range for several hours between the 0.7500-0.7495.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar A 0.10% | P -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Feb A 19.2B | C 18.6B | P 15.7B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Mar A 0.80% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Mar (F) A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Mar (F) A 0.70%| C 0.70% | P 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -1.0M | C -1.0M | P -2.2M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Beige Book
Good Luck,
Andy
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