Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.765 | EURUSD 1.08672 | AUDUSD 0.75704 | NZDUSD 0.70138 | USDCAD 1.35011 | USDCHF 0.99581 | GBPUSD 1.27961 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08704 | 1.08515
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.163 | 109.595
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27932 | 1.27752
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99698 | 0.99557
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75719 | 0.75519
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35600 | 1.35044
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70166 | 0.69853
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08243 | 1.08183
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85051 | 0.84909
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 119.668 | 119.068
For Today
- EUR: A lacklustre day with the market opening little changed and drifting through into the Tokyo session holding the 1.0865-70 areas, Tokyo slipped lower through to test towards the 1.0850 levels in slow trading before recovering to the 1.0865 areas, Topside offers into the 1.0900-20 areas with a push through the level seeing some weak stops appearing and then light congestion through the 1.0940-60 areas before increasing offers as the market reaches the strong sentimental level around 1.1000, a break through the level is likely to see strong stops appearing however, the congestion is likely to increase through the area. Downside bids weak through to the 1.0820 levels with bids likely to continue through to below the 1.0800 areas, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market open to a deeper move as the run lower gathers impetus, bids likely to slow the market but stronger bids are not really likely until through the 1.0720 areas.
- GBP: Cable dipped from the opening levels to trade from the 1.2790 levels to range around the 1.2780 areas through to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.2850 areas with light offers into the area with stronger offers likely on a move through and into the 1.2900 areas, a push through the 1.2910 levels is likely to see strong stops on a move through and the market opening to the ranges last seen in Oct before the “flash crashâ€, with congestion likely to appear once the market has pushed the 1.3000 level out of the way, Downside bids light into the 1.2750 areas with likely weak stops on a move through the level, better bids are limited until the market moves through to the 1.26 handle with the market seeing stronger bids only once the market touches through towards the 1.2600 levels.
- JPY: Early selling took the market down to the 109.60 areas before the market started to rise steadily through the session to push back through the 110.00 levels, struggling on each attempt to push through the 110.20 the market drifted around the 110.10 levels through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 110.50 areas with congestion likely to remain on a move through towards the 111.00 areas with congestion continuing through the level to the 111.50 areas and another strong set of offers likely, Downside bids light through to the 109.00 areas with bids likely from the 109.20 areas onwards, weak stops on a move through the 108.70 levels is likely to expose the stronger 108.50-108.00 areas.
- AUD: ANZAC day so a quiet day for the Oz with the market opening around the 0.7570 areas before heading into the Tokyo session and slipping back to the 0.7560 and drifting from there through to test towards the 0.7550 levels, Downside bids light through to the 0.7500 areas with the strong bids likely to extend through the 0.7480 levels with weak stops likely to appear on a strong move through the level to open a quick test through to the 74 cent levels and stronger congestion. Topside offers through to the 0.7600 levels possibly strong and then congestion on a break through the level continuing into strong offers on a move to the 77 cent areas.
Overnight News
USD/KRW:
US Nuclear Boat expected to dock in Busan S.Korea
EUR:
Le Pen calls parties in France Completely rotten as they unite to fend her off
Greek debt crisis increases as a dispute between Europe (Germany) and the IMF increases
Hollande urges French voters to block Le Pen
EU warns Britain don’t assume free trade deal for the City of London
USD:
Trump administration plans to impose 20% tariff on Canadian soft Lumber
Trump seeks 15% corporate tax rate, even if it expands the deficit
Entire US senate to go to the White House for N.Korea briefing, a rare event
OPEC:
Oil slips on OPEC cut extension doubts, Russia output worries
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Mar A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Mar C 2.6B | P 1.1B
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Feb C 0.30% | P 0.00%
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Feb C 5.80% | P 5.73%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Mar C 584K | P 592K
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Apr C 122.5 | P 125.6
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The big news was the result of the first round of French voting with Macron and Le Pen to move through to the next round, voting is expected to be around 66/34 split for the second round and expectations for Macron to be the next president however, we’ve seen those sort of odds reverse quickly, the market took the result in the best possible light with the Euro opening above the 1.0900 levels with high volume moving through the market, from that point on the market steadily slipped lower through the Asian session to test into the 1.0820 areas before ranging through the session around the 1.0860 levels generally holding the 1.0840-80 areas through to the close, even the news that Le Pen will resign from the Nationalist party after the election to focus as an independent candidate did little to move the market, mixed IFO numbers for Germany saw the market push through into the NYK session and the range slowly narrowing to a very quiet closing few hours around the 1.0870 areas.
- GBP: A quiet day for the Cable with volume flowing through but the market stuck in a tight range with no advantage to be had by the Euro’s rise, opening only slightly higher the market moved to trade the high on the initial moves testing to the 1.2840 levels before slipping back to the 1.2810 levels as the market moved into the Tokyo session, with the Euro sliding slowly lower the USD started to recover against most currencies and the Cable steadily slipped through the 1.2800 areas and testing to the 1.7280 areas through into the London session, poor house prices with London housing prices losing ground for the first time since 2009, the move into London saw the market pushing lightly through the 1.2780 areas and bouncing from the London opening to test quickly towards the 1.2830 areas and holding the level through into the NYK session, the market continued to remained as second fiddle to the Euro and USD drifting back off and holding through to the 1.2780 areas through to the close.
- JPY: Strong EURJPY buying, and risk back on saw the USDJPY open around the 110.30 areas peaking just below the 110.50 areas and then drifting back into the Tokyo session to trade around the 110.00 levels through to the London session, London were light buyers to the 110.30 areas with the market trading in a range between the 110.10-30 into the NYK session before slowly slipping lower and through to trade in a narrow range basing along the 109.70 areas to the close.
- AUD: The market opened around the 0.7570 areas with the market initially topping around the 0.7580 levels before dropping quickly lower as AUDJPY profit taking pushing the Oz lower and filling the gap on the charts to touch a little through the 0.7540 areas before recovering into the Tokyo session, the market ranged through the early part of Tokyo narrowing as it moved towards the London session, London was a steady buyer of the Oz with the market pushing through the session to make new highs on the day around the 0.7585 levels as the USDJPY weakened, the move into the NYK session saw those gains lost and the market again slipping back a bit however, as with most days for the Oz the market remained in a reasonable tight range with very little direct movement to finish the day around the 0.7570 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â First Round of French Presidential Election
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Rightmove House Prices M/M Apr A 1.10% | P 1.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Apr A 112.9 | C 112.4 | P 112.3 | R 112.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Apr A 105.2 | C 105.9 | P 105.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Apr A 121.1 | C 119.2 | P 119.3 | R 119.5
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Apr A 4 | C 6 | P 8
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M Feb A -0.20% | C -0.90% | P 3.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index Mar A 0.90% | P 1.20% | R 1.30%
Good Luck,
Andy
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