Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.408 | EURUSD 1.12773 | AUDUSD 0.75063 | NZDUSD 0.71847 | USDCAD 1.34535 | USDCHF 0.96195 | GBPUSD 1.2911 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12811 | 1.12601
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.618 | 109.334
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29152 | 1.28963
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96340 | 0.96178
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75439 | 0.74996
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34600 | 1.34442
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71925 | 0.7170
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08514 | 1.08472
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87386 | 0.8730
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.526 | 123.30
For today
- EUR: Yesterday the USD was under pressure from a rising debt with talk of as much as $13T consumer debt burden raising the prospects of another prime loan debacle this time concerned more with loans for white goods than homes, from the opening in Asia though the market struggled in the first hour to push through the 1.1280 level however the move into the Tokyo session saw steady selling through the session with fixing supply to test the 1.1270 level the market held for a period before the selling increased as the USD improved a little slipping back quietly to the 1.1260 areas and holding into the grey hours, Downside bids light through to the 1.1250-40 areas where bids improve with likely weak stops on a move through the 1.1240 level and limited congestion through to the 1.1180 areas, weak stops again through the level however, they are likely to be light with stronger bids into the 1.1160 areas, limited data sees limited movement possibly. Topside offers strong into the 1.1300 areas with weak stops just before the level a possibility however, a push through the level is likely to see stops appearing and the market open to some extent with limited congestion through to the 1.1380-1.1400 with strong offers likely.
- GBP: A quiet session for the Cable with the market opening just above the 1.2905 area and briefly testing the 1.2915 areas before slipping slowly back to trade in a tight range around the 1.2900 levels through to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.2950 areas are likely to be limited however, the congestion through to the 1.3000 area is likely to be strong and limit the potential for the moment, that is if there are no polls that suggest no one is voting for Labour, Downside bids into the 1.2880-70 areas are possibly light at best with some further bids into the sentimental 1.2850 areas and some weak stops however, 1.2800 is likely to be a stronger area with those bids likely to continue to the key 1.2765 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 109.40 areas and tested through the 1.0935 areas into the Tokyo session before slowly rising in limited action to test towards the 109.60 level holding the 109.50 level through to the grey hour, Topside light offers through to the 110.00 areas with limited offers continuing through to the 110.50 area where the market starts to thicken with likely weak stops through the 110.60 areas to open a test of the 111.00 areas and stronger offers. Downside bids into the 109.20 areas more sentimental than anything however, the fact the gap on the charts is now closed leaves that downside a little stronger than it was beforehand, light congestion through to the sentimental 109 level is likely to see stops on a move through the level with the 107.50 levels becoming vulnerable.
- AUD: With yesterday’s weak current account number the suggestion was that it would impact the GDP number so from the opening the market slipped back to the 75 cent levels in anticipation before rallying sharply as the number came in as expected, and the Oz pushed quickly off the figure level and test to the 0.7540 areas before stalling and then holding through to the grey hour in that area, light congestion to the Topside through to the 76 cent areas if it can push through to the 0.7560 areas with stronger offers into the 76cent level a push through this level will see weak stops on a move through and the market then facing further congestion and likely to slow the market to a trickle, Downside bids light through the 75 cent areas, with possible weak stops opening a test to 0.7450 areas with possible better bids from then on.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
NZ Partial look weak with contractions in non-residential -7.2%
Residential -0.8% with output falling 0.3% on QoQ
JPY:
Japan to promo0te direct Asian currency exchanges
AUD:
Australia’s economy ties world record for longest expansion despite soft Q1
CNY:
China making preliminary preparations for manned lunar mission
China’s Yuan edges up, CB sets guidance at new 7 month high
USD:
S&P affirms US debt rating at AA+
RUB/USD:
Russian fighter intercept US bomber over Baltic Sea
Gold:
Gold makes run toward the $1,300 as risk flares from UK to MidEast
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Activity Q1 A 2.80% | C 0.30% | P 0.80% | R 1.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 1.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Apr (P) A 104.5 | C 104.3 | P 105.5 | R 105.7
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Apr C -0.30% | P 1.00%
07:00Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves May P 696B
07:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Halifax House Prices M/M May C -0.20% | P -0.10%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Apr P -5.80%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -6.4M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A steady move higher through to the 1.1275 level where the market held through to London with reasonable volumes pushing at that resistance level, the move into the London session saw the market selling from those highs down to the 1.1240 and the market holding through to the NYK session trading around the 1.1250 areas, NYK moving into the session saw the market moving higher again to test to the resistance line again with the market holding the level until the London close and the market opening a small break to push through towards the 1.1285 area before holding around the 1.1275 level into the close. Eurozone numbers were ok with retail sales in line with expectations but nothing to write home about.
- GBP: No data for the Cable and a limited range with the market moving off the 1.2905 areas to test through to the 1.2925 areas into the grey hour and light buying on an attempt to push through the 1.2950 areas, the London opening saw the market back at the opening levels and although the market tested again higher on EURGBP selling the market never really looked like testing the highs again and Cable drifted back to the opening areas and triggered weak stops on a slip through the level with EURGBP regaining its losses as recriminations over the terrorist attack set a nervous background to the upcoming election, Cable held the 1.2875 levels and ranged quietly through to the last hour before regaining the opening levels for a nothing day.
- JPY: The USDJPY moved into the Tokyo session doing very little and holding around the 110.50 opening level, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market drop back to the 109.80 areas with Cash earning rising more than expected, the market pushed into the grey hour slipping back to the 109.60 level and light support the market held the level deep into the London session before again stepping lower as the level broke to push through to the 1.0930 areas, with the market testing the 109.20 areas but generally trading around the 1.0940 levels through to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7490 areas the market held quietly through to the release of the Current account balance with a weaker number the market tested to the 0.7460 levels before slowly rising into to the 0.7475 levels, the move towards the grey hour saw the market testing abck to the opening levels and then weak selling into London as day traders picked there side, the move through the NYK saw the market holding in the opening areas before NYK started a steady push higher to the 0.7520 areas and holding around the 0.7510 level through to the close in very quiet trading.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y May A -0.40% | C -0.50% | P 5.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Apr A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P -0.40% | R 0.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (AUD) Q1 A -3.1B | C -0.5B | P -3.9B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jun A 28.40 | C 27.4 | P 27.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI May A 53.8 | C 62 | P 62.4
Good Luck,
Andy
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