Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.819 | EURUSD 1.12573 | AUDUSD 0.75503 | NZDUSD 0.71902 | USDCAD 1.35091 | USDCHF 0.96487 | GBPUSD 1.29609 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12619 | 1.12471
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.011 | 109.618
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29668 | 1.2951
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96557 | 0.96403
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75513 | 0.75252
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35213 | 1.35061
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72119 | 0.71876
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08628 | 1.08542
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86918 | 0.8678
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.776 | 123.368
For today
- EUR: Euro’s ranged tightly through the session with the market drifting from the opening levels to test just through the 1.1250 areas and remaining in that range to the grey hour, Topside offers remain in the 1.1275-1.1300 levels with likely strong offers followed by weak stops on a move through with limited congestion before stronger offers appear on a move through to the 1.1380-1.1400 areas, weak stops are likely through the 1.1420 areas with likely strong offers picking up through the 1.1440 area. Downside bids into the 1.1200 are likely to be weak with some congestion on the move through and into the 1.1160-40 levels with better bids likely as the market approaches the 1.1100 level and likely to continue for a short distance before weak stops appear through the 1.1080 level.
- GBP: With the General election voting about to get underway the Cable was limited with the market testing through the 1.2965 level in early Tokyo before starting a slow drift to the 1.2955 area Topside offers from the 1.2980 levels with congestion then continuing through to the strong 1.3050 resistance level a push through will likely see strong buying moving in either in the form of stops or funds coming to market as a clear declaration for the current government to get on with Brexit and move ahead with its current proposals, the market will likely see weak offers into the sentimental values with possibly some weak option plays into the 1.3100-1.3200 levels however, the congestion around those areas is likely to be very vulnerable if the voting for the Conservative part gives a large margin in the House of Commons, Downside bids light through to the 1.2800 areas and while there may have been some strong bids in that area those bids are likely to melt away if the voting impedes the return of the Conservatives and any sign that the majority that they currently hold (6 seats) is lost then the market could find itself testing lower quickly with very little to stand in the way with sentimental values likely to be blown away, congestion into the 1.2400 areas and again around the 1.2200 levels are a long way off however, the market could see a more dramatic move to the downside than it would face to the topside.
- JPY: USDJPY traded quietly for the most part with the market slipping into Tokyo to test the 109.70 level before slowly rising through to briefly test the 110.00 before holding around the 109.90 areas deep into the session, as the market approached the grey hour quick selling as BoJ comments on recalibrating communications on a future exit from monetary stimulus with the market unsure of anything to be drawn from that comment it did see the market back quickly to the 109.60 areas before holding into the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 110.00 areas with weak stops on a push through the 110.20 areas and limited congestion then through to the 111.00 where better offers are likely to be seen with possibly stronger stops on a move through that level, downside bids into the 109.35 areas are likely to be weak with the bids possibly increasing on a move into and then through the 109.00 areas with less likelihood of decent stops until the market breaches the lows from April to test the 108.00 area.
- AUD: Oz moved through into the Tokyo session holding around the 0.7550 opening areas before slipping back through to the 0.7525 area on the release of a weaker Trade Balance number, a stronger Oz was not in favour for the number and the market recognised that in its knee jerk reaction however, the market steadily recovered through the second half of the day testing back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers above the 0.7565 level and likely to increase as the market moves towards the 76 cent levels, GBP crosses for the day could dominate the market however, for the Oz a move through that level is likely to see weak stops soaked up by further congestive offers through and really struggling for reasons to push through 77 cent. Downside bids through into the 0.7520 areas and likely to continue to 75 cent with weak stops opening the market to a possible deeper move and back to the 74 cent levels.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
JPY:
Japan to rein in regional banks overexposure to bonds
BoJ is said to recalibrate communication on future exit
AUD:
Weak data sees the Oz slip back
NZD:
NZD at 3 month highs
KRW:
N.Korea launches multiple missiles
CNY:
China exports, imports, surprise with growth rebound in May
USD:
Comey testimony: Trump pressured him to drop Flynn investigation
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance May A 17% | C 20% | P 22%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 0.30% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 (F) A -0.80% | C -0.80% | P -0.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Apr A 1.81T | C 1.62T | P 1.73T
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) May A 40.8B | C 47.5B | P 38.1B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) May A 282B | C 336B | P 262B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Apr A 0.56B | C 1.99B | P 3.11B
05:00Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current May A | C 48.5 | P 48.1
05:45Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May C 3.30% | P 3.30%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Apr C 0.50% | P -0.40%
07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May C 0.00% | P 0.20%
07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May C 0.30% | P 0.40%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) C 0.50% | P 0.50%
11:45Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
12:15Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts May C 205K | P 213K
12:30Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Apr C 0.30% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 03) C 241K | P 248K
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 81B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet range through Asia with the market drifting from the opening levels and struggling with that 1.1280 area through deep into Tokyo, the drift saw the market pushing to the 1.1260 level in quiet trading and then lifting a little for the move into London, poor German factory orders saw very little movement until the London opening and the market dropped for the first time to test the 1.1250 areas before recovering a little, concern that QE is moving to an end saw the market slipping lower quickly to test down to the 1.1205 areas before recovering slowly through into the NYK session, a slow push to the 1.1235 areas saw the market rallying strongly into weak shorts and the market pushing through to the 1.1280 levels again in a choppy movement before settling down to a slow drift to the close.
- GBP: Quiet trading through the Asian session with the market drifting from the 1.2910 areas to range around the 1.2900 levels into the grey hour, the move into the London session saw a little nervousness into the Halifax numbers to set the lows around the 1.2890 areas, the move through into London saw the markets range increase around the 1.2900 areas with the market testing to the 1.2920 level but not setting any new low, the move into the NYK session saw the market rallying with latest polls showing an increase between the Conservatives and Labour parties helping the market to push through to the 1.2970 areas before being dragged lower again as the EURGBP cross saw strong movement, the market eventually settled to a quiet finish to the day.
- JPY: A quiet range for the most part with Asia slowly rising from the early lower to the 1.0960 levels, the move into the grey hour saw the market drift through to make the lows on the day testing the 109.10 levels before rising back through to the 109.50 levels as EURJPY selling reversed and holding into the 109.50 areas, the range remained in the 109.30-60 areas deep into the NYK session before breaking to the topside again and moving through to hold around the 109.80 areas.
- AUD: The Oz moved from the opening levels around the 0.7510 areas before dipping back to test the 75 cent levels into the release of the GDP numbers, in line with expectations and against what the previous days numbers suggested so the Oz rallied quickly to the 0.7545 areas to range in a tight range around that level to the opening in London, light buying in London saw the market raising through to test the 0.7565 areas and ranging through to the close of London before drifting a little to the close around the 0.7550 area.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Activity Q1 A 2.80% | C 0.30% | P 0.80% | R 1.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 1.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Apr (P) A 104.5 | C 104.3 | P 105.5 | R 105.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Apr A -2.10% | C -0.30% | P 1.00% | R 1.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves May A 694B | P 696B | R 697B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Halifax House Prices M/M May A 0.40% | C -0.20% | P -0.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Apr A -0.20% | C 2.40% | P -5.80% | R -4.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 3.3M | C -3.1M | P -6.4M
Good Luck,
Andy
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