Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.012 | EURUSD 1.12128 | AUDUSD 0.75465 | NZDUSD 0.72149 | USDCAD 1.35058 | USDCHF 0.9674 | GBPUSD 1.29581 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12147 | 1.11793
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.361 | 109.816
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28284 | 1.26936
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96979 | 0.96756
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75443 | 0.7524
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35266 | 1.35053
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72205 | 0.71936
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08510 | 1.08399
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88085 | 0.8735
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.645 | 122.823
For today
- EUR: Euro’s rose quickly from the open9ing to trade towards the 1.1240 level as the GBP dropped, the movement was short lived before the drag of the falling GBP took the market to the 1.1200 areas to hold into the Tokyo session, the drag continued through into the Tokyo session with the Euro testing the 1.1180 levels for a few hours before slowly rising through into the grey hour above the 1.1200 areas but unable for the moment to push through towards those opening levels, Topside offers light through the 1.1250 areas however, offers then start to pile up as the market moves towards the 1.1280-1.1300 level with the likelihood of decent stops on a move through the level with the chance of a strong move towards the 1.1400 levels with further strong offers, chances are that Euro’s will be dominated by action in the Cable in the short term with chances in either direction either as a drag or as opportunity of a weak UK government going into Brexit negotiations kick in, Downside sees light congestion through to the 1.1100 areas with limited sentimental support into the level with stronger bids then reappearing on a move through onto the 1.1060-40 areas through to 1.1000.
- GBP: The release of a UK exit poll saw the market gap lower on the opening of a new day with the market quickly moving from the 1.2800 levels to the 1.2720 level and holding the level in strong selling, with some saying something like £5B went through on that initial push with a further £1B sold in crosses, the early results looked more promising for the Conservatives and while they were not actually winning seats the swings in their direction were favourable however, it was short lived as successive losses started to appear and the rally back to the 1.2820 areas lasted only into the Tokyo session before again testing to the lows and then through to briefly trade on the 1.26 handle, while the Government is likely to be the largest party they look to have lost the majority they had and the market eventually settled into trading around the 1.2760 areas through to the grey hour. Topside offers into the 1.2820 levels and while I would always look at gaps on the chart being targets this one is a big one and it will all depend at the end of the day to how or if a government can be formed by the Conservatives with a minority, a push through the 1.2820 areas is likely to see further weak offers and there is always a chance of a short squeeze higher to target the gap however, this is likely to be slim for the moment without any good news, Downside bids into the 1.2700 areas are likely to be weak with any concerted effort pushing the market down to a weak supportive line around the 1.2630 levels and stronger congestive areas below from the move higher in April with stronger bids likely into the 1.2600 areas and the market watching carefully over the next few days for an indication of what type of government can be formed, and obviously the Brexit negotiations to start later just over a weeks time. Any push through 1.2600 will likely see weak bids continuing through to the 1.2500 level with another strong level and the centre off the early April ranges.
- JPY: GBPJPY selling saw the USDJPY quickly to the 109.80 from the lows through the USDJPY started a steady rise through to the 110.10 level and then into the Tokyo session with fresh GBP cross selling, however, as the market settled down the market saw stronger USDJPY buying counteracting the cross selling and the USDJPY pushed steadily through to the 110.30 areas before moving into the grey hour holding around the 110.20 levels with early volume distorting the day. Downside bids down through the 1.0950 areas with a push through the 109.20 areas leaving the 109.00 vulnerable to a test and opening up the 108 handle, light bids into the 108.50 areas however, weak stops through the 108.80 area likely to test that level quickly, Topside offers into the 110.50 aeaas likely to be strong with a push through that level seeing congestive offers through to the 111.00 area and stronger offers again appearing.
- AUD: GBPAUD selling on the opening left the Oz struggling with an opening around the 0.7530 levels however, overall the Oz was quiet for the most part with the drag of GBP testing the supportive 0.7525-30 levels into early Tokyo before recovering a little and closing much of the gap on the charts testing towards the 0.7545 levels before settling into a quiet range around the 0.7535 level. Topside offers into the 0.7550-60 areas with light congestion continuing into stronger offers around the 76 cent areas and weak stops on a break here likely, Downside bids light through the 0.7520-00 levels but present and a move through will see light congestion to the 0.7460 levels and some stronger bids starting to appear on a move through to the 74 cent level with possibly something every 20 pips or so to slow moves down and stronger bids still into the 74 cent and through the level.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
AUD:
Australian April owner occupied home loan values fall 1.1% MoM
Value of Australian home loans to investors fell 2.3% in April
Australia April home loan approvals -1.9% MoM vs. est. -1.0%
ANZ raises interest only mortgage rates as housing market cools
GBP:
GBP suffered as early exit polls indicated the Conservatives would be the largest without a mandate
Cable lost 2.5% into the new day before recovering slowly in a choppy session.
Scottish leader Sturgeon says election disastrous for PM May as Scottish Nationals lose 18 seats
UK heads for hung parliament
CNY:
May CPI 1.5% YoY faster vs April
PPI 5.5% YoY cools for 3rd month
JPY:
Japan clears way for first emperor abdication in 200yrears
EUR:
Draghi’s cry for decent pay shows ECB can’t slow stimulus yet
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y May A 3.90% | C 4.30% | P 4.30% | 4.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.20%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y May A 5.50% | C 5.70% | P 6.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Apr A -1.90% | C -1.00% | P -0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Apr A 1.20% | C 0.50% | P -0.20% | -0.30%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Apr C 20.3B | P 19.6B
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Apr C 0.70% | P -0.50%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Apr C -0.30% | P 1.40%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Apr C 0.80% | P -0.60%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Apr C 0.70% | P 2.30%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Apr C 0.40% | P -0.70%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Apr C -12.0B | P -13.4B
12:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate May P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Rate Q1 C 82.40% | P 82.20%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment May C 17.0K | P 3.2K
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May C 6.60% | P 6.50%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Apr (F) C -0.30% | P -0.30%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Trading quietly through the Asian session the opening levels around the 1.1260 saw slow selling through to the grey hour, initially the market testing through to trade around the 1.1250 levels as the market adjusted for the UK elections with more interest in the GBP crosses than normal however, the move into the grey hour saw the market make the highs for the day pushing towards the 1.1270 levels in a weak move before holding quietly through to the Eurozone GDP number coming in better than expected, once the number was absorbed the market started to slip slowly lower through into the Rate decision and diminishing deflationary risk, the commentary later in the session with the ECB dropping guidance on rate cuts in step toward stimulus exit, the movement in the market was choppy but limited with initial movement on the communique seeing a spike towards the highs before slowly slipping to test the 1.1220 levels, a decent initial claims number saw the market dipping again to test through the 1.1200 level and then basing on that area through to the close ranging around the 1.1210.
- GBP: Cable traded through the day tightly as the General election kicked in with the market opening around the 1.2950 areas with limited attempts through the 1.2960 level through Asia however, for the most part the market was very quiet. The move into the grey hours saw some limited gains with the market testing towards the 1.2980 levels before slipping back to trade along the 1.2940 level on the move through into the NYK session, weak longs cut positions in the NYK session and the market dipped initially towards the 1.2900 areas before recovering before the London close and a quiet session rising to the opening levels to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY traded quietly to test the 110.00 levels after opening around the 109.80 areas however, the move into the grey hours saw the USDJPY dropping back quickly with BoJ comments on recalibrating communications on future exit from monetary stimulus, the USDJPY traded to the 1.0960 level and then steadily moved from there through to 109.40 areas before starting a slow and steady rise through the early morning session in London to trigger weak stops on a move through the 110.00 levels before ranging for a period around the 110.10-20 areas, the move into the NYK session saw that range increase and the high increased towards the 110.40 level before slowly drifting through to the close to end around the 110.00 areas.
- AUD: A very tight range through the day with early sellers from the 0.7555 areas through to 0.7525 before slowly rising into the London session recovering those opening highs, the range then tightened through into the NYK session with the market holding the 0.7535-50 levels for the most part in quiet trading.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance May A 17.00% | C 20.00% | P 22.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 0.30% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 (F) A -0.80% | C -0.80% | P -0.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Apr A 1.81T | C 1.62T | P 1.73T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Apr A 0.56B | C 1.99B | P 3.11B | R 3.17B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) May A 40.8B | C 47.5B | P 38.1B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) May A 282B | C 336B | P 262B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current May A 48.6 | C 48.5 | P 48.1
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May A 3.20% | C 3.30% | P 3.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Apr A 0.80% | C 0.50% | P -0.40% | R -0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May A 0.20% | C 0.00% | P 0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts May A 194.7K | C 205K | P 213K | R 213.5K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Apr A 0.80% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 03) A 245K | C 241K | P 248K | R 255K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 106B | C 98B | P 81B
Good Luck,
Andy
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