Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.067 | EURUSD 1.12108 | AUDUSD 0.75371 | NZDUSD 0.7225 | USDCAD 1.32423 | USDCHF 0.96884 | GBPUSD 1.27534 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12198 | 1.12069
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.135 | 109.956
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27556 | 1.27425
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96906 | 0.96822
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75451 | 0.75327
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32445 | 1.32137
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72278 | 0.71986
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08631 | 1.0858
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88009 | 0.87884
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.494 | 123.328
For today
- EUR: A quiet session with the market holding into early Tokyo around the 1.1210 areas before rallying slowly to the 1.1220 before holding quietly around the 1.1215 areas into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.1270 areas is likely to continue through to the 1.1300 levels with strong offers into the area, likely strong stops through the level leaves the topside vulnerable to the 1.1340-60 areas with the offers likely to increase again into the 1.1400 areas. Downside bids more congestive than anything else around the 1.1200 areas and a move through to the 1.1150 is likely to be slow with some stronger bids around that 1.1150 area with very limited bids through that level with stops appearing with stronger bids likely to appear on any move to the 1.1100 areas.
- GBP: The market has slowly held around the 1.2750 areas through the session in quiet trading across the board, light offers around the current levels with the market likely to see stronger congestion around the 1.2800 areas through to the 1.2850 level. Downside bids light back through the 1.2700 areas with weak stops likely on a move through, with stronger bids then moving into the 1.2650 levels and likely to continue through to the 1.2600 areas, with likely strong stops on a move through the level.
- JPY: Narrow range with early Tokyo taking the market from the 110.05 testing towards the 110.13 areas before drifting back through to the 109.95 areas before returning to the opening levels, Topside offers into the 110.20 areas light possibly weak stops however, stronger offers likely into the 110.50 areas with a break here opening a stronger move through weak offers around the 111.00 areas before resistance improves towards the 111.80 level. Downside bids into the 109.60-30 levels likely to be strong with stops not expected unless the market can strongly test the 109.00 level.
- AUD: As with the rest of the market very quiet with the range in Oz trading for the most part around the 0.7535 areas before moving slowly through to the 0.7545 areas late in the session, strong offers to the Topside through the 0.7570 levels and likely to continue through the 76 cent before weak stops appear however, the topside remains congestive and the market still hears comments about rate cuts, downside bids light into the 0.7520 areas with limited bids likely to continue through the 75 cent areas with likely weak stops on a move through the 0.7480 areas with bids likely to increase as the market moves down towards the 74 cent level.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
AUD:
New Banking rules may prompt more loan slowdown in Australia
GBP:
Defiant May Signals she will not compromise over a hard Brexit
Drop Brexit trade plan, Hammond tells Tories Times
Large tower block fire in west London, not far from LMAX
NZD:
NZ house price inflation slowed in May as sales fell
Current account deficit widens, while food prices jump
CNY:
China defaults feared as firms confront short debt addiction
Jan-May property investment rises 8.8% YoY
USD:
Trump gives US military authority to set Afghan troop levels US official
More than 190 Democratic US lawmakers sue Trump over funds his businesses accepted
Lawsuit says Trump violated constitution by not seeking congressional approval for such payments
Plaintiffs say lawsuit represents biggest group of lawmakers to sue a president in US History.
JPY:
Reuters poll most economists project BoJ’s next move will be to start scaling back stimulus
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance Q1 A 0.24B | C 1.00B | P -2.34B | -2.42B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Jun A -1.80% | P -1.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y May A 10.70% | C 10.80% | P 10.70%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y May A 8.60% | C 8.80% | P 8.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y May A 6.50% | C 6.50% | P 6.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Apr (F) A 4.00% | C 4.10% | P 4.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization M/M Apr A 4.30% | P -1.60%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M May (F) C -0.20% | P -0.20%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y May (F) C 1.50% | P 1.50%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change May C 10.0K | P 19.4K
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate May P 2.30%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Apr P 4.60%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Apr C 2.40% | P 2.40%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Apr C 0.50% | P -0.10%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q1 C 0.30% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May C 0.00% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May C 2.00% | P 2.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M May C 0.20% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y May C 1.90% | P 1.90%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales May C 0.10% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos May C 0.20% | P 0.30%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Apr C 0.30% | P 0.20%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 3.3M
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision C 1.25% | P 1.00%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1205 levels overall the market was caught in a tight range throughout the day however, from the opening the market slowly drifted lower into the Tokyo session testing through to the 1.1185 areas into the grey hours before starting a slight recovery and then being dragged along by the GBP rise after the inflationary data, testing quickly through the opening levels and pushing to the 1.1225 before slipping back and ranging through to the end of London in the 1.1205-25 areas, the close in London saw the market dropping back through the 1.1200 areas before slowly rising from the 1.1190 areas to hold around the 1.1210 areas.
- GBP: Early buying took the market to the 1.2680 levels before moving into the Tokyo session and slowly slipping back to the 1.2650 areas to trade around the level through to the grey hours and the release of the inflationary news, whether welcome or not the stronger figures saw the Cable moving quickly through to the 1.2680 areas and then a steady climb through the day as belief in a coming rise in interest rates to curb the problem, the market pushed into the NYK session testing the 1.2740 areas, early NYK were light sellers before the buying reappeared in a limited fashion testing through the 1.2750 areas and holding through to the close.
- JPY: Some movement for the USDJPY however, it was limited with the market dipping from the opening levels to make the day’s lows below the 109.85 areas before moving into the Tokyo session pushing slowly through to the 110.00 level, and eventually testing to the 110.10 level before holding around the 110.00 level into the London session, the move into the London session saw GBPJPY forting the USDJPY higher to test to the 110.25 areas before slowly slipping back to range around the 110.00 levels through to the close of the day.
- AUD: The market opened around the 0.7540 levels and the move into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 0.7565 areas and the offers in the area holding the market in place, the move through to the NYK session testing down to the 0.7525 levels before regaining the opening levels to hold through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â BSI Large All Industry Q/Q Q2 A -2.9 | C 1.5 | P 1.3
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence May A 7 | P 13
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May A 2.90% | C 2.70% | P 2.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y May A 2.60% | C 2.30% | P 2.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M May A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y May A 3.70% | C 3.50% | P 3.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M May A -1.30% | C -0.40% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y May A 11.60% | C 13.40% | P 16.60% | R 15.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y May A 3.60% | C 3.60% | P 3.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y May A 2.80% | C 2.90% | P 2.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Apr A 5.60% | C 3.70% | P 4.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jun A 18.6 | C 21.8 | P 20.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Jun A 88 | C 85 | P 83.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jun A 37.7 | C 37.2 | P 35.1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M May A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y May A 2.40% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M May A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y May A 2.10% | C 2.00% | P 1.90%
Good Luck,
Andy
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