Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.938 | EURUSD 1.11453 | AUDUSD 0.75791 | NZDUSD 0.72114 | USDCAD 1.32684 | USDCHF 0.97532 | GBPUSD 1.27559 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11555 | 1.1417
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.271 | 110.846
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27859 | 1.27509
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97549 | 0.97441
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76000 | 0.75805
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32709 | 1.32501
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72169 | 0.71998
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08741 | 1.08675
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87429 | 0.87195
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.032 | 123.567
For today
- EUR: While volumes would suggest otherwise, a quiet day for the Euro with the market trading around the 1.1150 levels slowly drifting into the 1.1140’s as the market approaches the grey hours, Topside offers likely through the 1.1200 levels but light for the most part with the stronger offers then appearing on a move through the 1.1240 levels and building stronger towards 1.1280-1.1300 areas, weak stops on a push through and possible stronger break out stops appearing for a quick move to the 1.1400 level. Downside bids light around the current levels with a move to the 1.1100 possibly seeing stronger bids into the 1.1090-80 areas before stops appear and the market opening to test into the 1.1020-00 levels and stronger bids probably appearing.
- GBP: Early trading was slow however, once the market moved into the Tokyo session the Cable pushed through the 1.2765 levels again and started a steady climb towards the 1.2785 level but unable to get through the area slipped back to hold around the 1.2770 level through to the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.2790 level and into the 1.2800 area possible weak stops on a move through the level and the market seeing limited congestion on a move into the 1.2850 areas before the resistance increases into the 1.2900 areas. Downside bids into the 1.2700 areas likely to be light with stronger bids then moving in on a move towards the 1.2650 areas with decent stops likely on a move through the level.
- JPY: The USDJPY moved into the Tokyo session unchanged from the opening before pushing through the 111.00 levels with the help of the Tokyo fix and BoJ commentary however, everything was more or less unchanged in the monetary policy and the market slowly pushed through to the 111.20 areas before holding for the rest of the session, Topside offers through into the 111.60 areas with stronger offers on a test towards the 111.80 areas and through onto the 112. Handle, if the market can push through this level it could find an open run into the 11.3.00 areas with only minor interference around the 112.50 level and some weak stops through the sentimental levels. Downside bids light through to some congestive bids around the 110.50 areas before a return to testing the 110.00 hare as with limited stops appearing and the market finding strong bids again through the 109.60 levels.
- AUD: Early Tokyo took the market higher with a slightly stronger AUDJPY cross leading the way, the Oz pushed up slowly to test the 76 cent areas repeatedly however, it was unable to push on and after several hours of trying slipped back again as weak longs sold out of there positions and the market returning to the opening 0.7580 areas into the grey hour, Topside offers weak through the 76 cent level with increasing offers as the market pushes towards the 0.7630 resistance line and possible weak stops likely to run into the sentimental 0.7650 offers, congestion from then on through to the 77 cent areas with better offers likely to be just behind the level. Downside bids light into the 0.7575 areas with the market likely to see some weak stops on a move through the level before meeting congestion around the 0.7550 level.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
CHF:
SNB economic, financial conditions for Swiss banking improved
SNB maintains deposit rate at -0.75%
SNB leaves upper end of 3-M Libor target range at -0.25% and lower -1.25%
SNB says it will remain active in FX markets as needed, pledges to intervene if necessary
SNB Franc is significantly overvalued
SNB sees 2017 GDP at about 1.5% in line with previous assessment
JPY:
BoJ raises assessment of private consumption
BoJ says consumption has increased resilience
BoJ says improving employment, income helping consumption
BoJ maintains overall economic outlook
BoJ says Japan economy likely to continue moderate expansion
BoJ inflation expectations remain in weakening phase
BoJ maintains policy balance rate at -0.10%
BoJ maintains 10 year JGB yield target at about 0.00%
CNY:
China’s holdings of US treasuries rise to six month high
EUR:
EU reaches €8.5B debt deal for Greece
NZD:
NZ may manufacturing PMI at 58.5 up 1.6 on previous
Â
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Policy Statement
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index May A 58.5 | P 56.8 | R 56.9
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M May C -0.10% | P -0.10%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y May (F) C 1.40% | P 1.40%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y May (F) C 0.90% | P 0.90%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Apr C 12.14B | P 15.13B
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts May C 1.21M | P 1.17M
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits May C 1.25M | P 1.23M
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Market Conditions Index C 3 | P 3.5
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence (JUN P) C 97.3 | P 97.1
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A slow day for the Euro wi9th the market moving quietly through Asia holding around the 1.1220 areas before moving into the grey hours dipping through the 1.1200 level, weak stops took the market into the 1.1180 and holding into the early part of the morning, by mid-morning in London the market again started to slip lower and pushed gradually through the 1.1160 levels into the NYK session and dipped back to the 1.1140 level to range quiet through to the close.
- GBP: The move through the Asian session saw the market test towards the 1.2760 levels before drifting through the session to push into the grey hour just below the 1.2750 areas and then slipping steadily lower as the London market opened, the move into the mid-morning session saw the market testing through the 1.2700 levels pushing towards the 1.2690 levels, the release of the rate decision saw no change in the number however the vote saw 2 more joining the lonely hawk and the market jumped quickly through to the 1.2790 level as the market absorbed the closing gap between rise or not, the move into the NYK session saw a stronger USD filtering through however, the Cable while triggering weak stops on the dip through the 1.2765 areas recovered from the 1.2730 level to hold close to the 1.2765 area through to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.60 levels the market struggled into the Tokyo session pushing to the 109.30 areas before moving back to hold around the opening levels deep into the London session starting a slow rise through to 109.80 before early NYK started buying and the market moved through the 110.00 the rise from there was a strong steady rise with the market moving through the 110.50 levels and only slowing as the market reached towards the 111.00 level holding the 110.90 areas through to the close.
- AUD: The market moved quietly through into the Asian session trading around the 0.7590 areas, stronger employment data saw the market rise quickly to the 0.7630 resistance line and saw the market slipping slowly back from the highs to trade around the 0.7605-15 into the London session, with first Cable strength moving the Oz back to the opening levels and then USD strength as the market dipped through to the 0.7570 areas to make the lows, the market ranged through the session in an ever decreasing range to close just off the lows.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.70% | P 0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Jun A 3.60% | P 4.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change May A 42K | C 10.0K | P 37.4K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May A 5.50% | C 5.70% | P 5.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M May A -0.30% | C 0.00% | P -0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y May A 0.10% | C 0.90% | P 0.80%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate A -0.75% | C -0.75% | P -0.75%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range A -1.25% | C -1.25% | P -1.25%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range A -0.25% | C -0.25% | P -0.25%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M May A -1.20% | C -0.90% | P 2.30% | R 2.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Apr A 19.6B | C 22.4B | P 23.1B | R 22.2B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Jun A 435B | C 435B | P 435B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 3—0—5 | C 1–0—6 | P 1–0–7
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0—0—8 | C 0–0—7 | P 0–0–8
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Apr A 1.10% | C 0.90% | P 1.00% | R 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M May A -0.30% | C -0.10% | P 0.50% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Index Jun A 19.8 | C 6 | P -1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 10) A 237K | C 241K | P 245K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Jun A 27.6 | C 25 | P 38.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production May A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization May A 76.60% | C 76.80% | P 76.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Jun A 67 | C 70 | P 70
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 78B | C 88B | P 106B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Apr A 1.8B | C 37.3B | P 59.8B | R 59.7B
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.