Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.872 | EURUSD 1.11815 | AUDUSD 0.75852 | NZDUSD 0.72915 | USDCAD 1.32435 | USDCHF 0.97242 | GBPUSD 1.27232 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11926 | 1.1180
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.076 | 111.763
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27331 | 1.27165
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97263 | 0.97172
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76038 | 0.75771
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32608 | 1.32451
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73083 | 0.72758
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08771 | 1.0872
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87981 | 0.87883
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.362 | 125.067
For today
- EUR: While the Euro rose a little through the session, the market again saw limited volume testing from the 1.1180 areas to above the 1.1190 level before holding around the level into the grey hour. Topside offers through the 1.1200 likely to be light until the 1.1220 areas where the offers increase with possible weak stops, light congestion through the level with stronger offer likely to increase on a move through the 1.1260 areas and into the 1.1280-1.1300 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.1180 areas with congestion then moving into the market around the 1.1160-40 levels, possible weak stops on a move through with some stronger bids into the 1.1120-00 level.
- GBP: Slow and steady movement around the opening 1.2720 areas before pushing slowly in late trading towards the 1.2730 level, Topside offers likely weak until the 1.2760 levels with limited congestive offers then running through to the 1.2800 areas, a push through to the 1.2830 levels will likely see weak stops and breakout stops appearing on a move into the gap from the 9th June, and opening the market to a return to the 1.29 handle. Downside bids light into the 1.2700 levels however, while it may be light there are bids in the area with weak stops likely to be absorbed on a move through with stronger bids likely to increase into the 1.2650 level.
- JPY: Another quiet day for the USDJPY with the market opening around the 111.85 areas and then moving slowly to its highs towards the 112.10 level but never able to push through and dropping quickly back to the starting level to drift into the grey hours unable to push away from the opening area. Topside offers through the 112.00 areas with minor congestion on a move into the 112.50 areas and through to the stronger 113.00-30 area before stops appear, with limited potential with stronger offers likely to appear through the 113.50 areas, downside bids light until around the 111.50 areas where congestive bids are likely to appear with only a strong move through the 111.00 likely to upset the downside with supportive bids likely to reappear around the 110.50 areas.
- AUD: Early trading was quiet through to mid Tokyo session with the market initially ranging in the 0.7580-85 areas before, with GDP comments from Premier Li Keqiang the Oz rose quickly to the 76 cent areas and then held around the mark through to the grey hours, topside offers continue through the 0.7600 areas with congestion likely to continue through the handle with weak stops likely on a strong push through the 0.7620-25 areas with stronger offers appearing on a move through to the 0.7650 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.7550-30 level with some congestive bids in the area and weak stops through likely to be soaked up by sentimental bids into the 75 cent area.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
US says Identified preparations for chemical attack in Syria
US says Assad will pay heavy price if chemical weapons used
Audit says Senate bill overhauling Obama bill would leave 22m uninsured
US commerce dept. announces duties on Canadian softwood lumber
CNY:
Strains emerge as China’s USD debt pile up WSJ
China capable of achieving full year GDP growth target, says Premier
China industrial profits quicken in May, seen fading as finance costs rise
JPY:
BoJ says it held 39.46% of JGB’s at the end of March
NZD:
Soaring building costs sound sour note for NZ economy
EUR:
Germans upset about the Italian not a bailout bank deal
GBP:
Grubby £1B deal for DUP help for the government – FT
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) May A 103M | C 420M | P 578M | R 536M
09:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Financial Stability Report
10:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales Jun C 2 | P 2
13:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Apr C 5.90% | P 5.90%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Jun C 116 | P 117.9
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A very quiet Asian session with the market opening around the 1.1195 level and trading slowly to initially test the 1.1200 level before drifting through to the grey hour testing the 1.1190 level, move into the London session saw the market rising on better German numbers to test into the 1.1210 areas before dropping back again with the topside holding in light volume, the move into the NYK session saw a weaker durable goods number and the USD dropping quickly back allowing the Euro to move off the lows around the 1.1170 levels saw a quick move back through the 1.1200 and running towards the 1.1220 area before finding enough offers to turn the market back again and although the Euro kept in touch with the level for a few hours the market dropped back again to test towards the lows before running quietly to the close just off those levels.
- GBP: Opening a little stronger the Cable made a slow move from the 1.2735 areas to test through the 1.2750 areas before moving back to the 1.2740 on the move into the grey hour, early London took the market to its highs with only Mortgage approvals on the data front taking the market to the 1.2760 level before the USD rallied however, the fall back from the highs was limited with the market testing towards the 1.2705 areas before finding some support and bouncing back to the opening levels, the market moved into the NYK session chopping around the 1.2725-50 levels through to the end of London and the market drifting from there to range around the 1.2720 areas to the close.
- JPY: A steady day overall, with the market opening slightly weaker and then rising from the 111.20 lows to pushing through into the 111.30 areas through into the grey hour, London were steady buyers through the session and apart from the move into the NYK session and the poor durable goods number the market tested to the 111.70 levels and dropped on the release of the number to the 111.40 level before starting a steady rise again, this time the market pushed through the 111.70 previous highs with weak stops on a push through to the 111.90 levels before struggling in the last few hours around that level.
- AUD: Moving from the opening around the 0.7565 levels the market struggled around the level testing a little bit lower before rising slowly as the Tokyo session started to push through to the 0.7580 areas, the move into the London session saw the market making a limited move to the 0.7590 areas before dropping back quickly to hold the opening levels through to the NYK open, Oz rose quickly on the durable goods number to test just short of the 76 cent level before drifting the balance of the session testing back to the 0.7585 areas in a slow finish to the day.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Summary of Opinions at June 15-16 Meeting
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y May A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.70% | R 0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Jun A 115.1 | C 114.5 | P 114.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Jun A 106.8 | C 106.4 | P 106.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Jun A 124.1 | C 123.2 | P 123.2
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals May A 40.3K | C 40.3K | P 40.8K | R 40.7K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders May (P) A -1.10% | C -0.60% | P -0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation May (P) A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P -0.50%
Good Luck,
Andy
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