Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.28 | EURUSD 1.13974 | AUDUSD 0.77314 | NZDUSD 0.73232 | USDCAD 1.27225 | USDCHF 0.96723 | GBPUSD 1.29392 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14108 | 1.13915
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.575 | 113.276
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29539 | 1.29353
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96775 | 0.96655
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77450 | 0.77293
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27355 | 1.27263
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73283 | 0.73129
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10304 | 1.1024
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88141 | 0.8800
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.517 | 129.142
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with the Euro ranging around the 1.1400 level before pushing steadily through to the 1.1410 level and holding around there into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.1450 areas remain with possible weak stops through the 1.1460 areas to open a challenge to the 1.1500 level however, stronger offers are likely to reappear from the 1.1480-1.1500 levels with stronger stops likely through the level and exposing a quick move towards the 1.1600 level and last year’s highs. Downside bids light through to the 1.1300 levels with stronger bids and congestion around that level and through however, 1.1275 is likely to see stops appearing and while the congestion will slow the move the market does open a little for a deeper move.
- GBP: Basing for the most part along the 1.2940 level the market eventually pushed through the 1.2950 areas into the later part of the session, Topside congestion through to the 1.3000 levels and then stronger offers appearing on a move through the level with very little in the way of stops until we see a strong push through that 1.3050 level where the market is likely to be piled up with offers, a push through though does open up further gains through to the 1.3200 areas and beyond. Downside bids light through the 1.2900 areas and the market is not likely to find much in support until closer to the 1.2850 areas with congestive bids appearing in the market through to the stronger 1.2800 areas, weak stops are likely to appear on a move through the 1.2765 areas and opens up the 1.2650-1.2750 range from last month.
- JPY: Opening around the 113.25 areas the early part of the session saw the market rising steadily through into the Tokyo session pushing through towards the 113.60 levels before running out of steam and drifting off to hold the 113.40-45 levels through to the grey hour. Topside offers likely to be light through to the 113.80 level and then strengthening through into the 114.00 level, limited stops on a move through the level and stronger offers then starting to appear on any attempt at the 114.50 level that we saw early in the week, a push through the level will likely see some stronger stops and the 115 level quickly vulnerable. Downside bids light through to the 113.00 112.80 areas with stops likely to appear and the market open to the downside with congestive bids below 112.50 likely to be quickly tested and the 112.00-111.80 levels a stronger level.
- AUD: The Oz struggled against the 0.7740-50 level throughout the session holding above the 0.7730 once through the level but lacking impetus to make a move, most likely London will give it ago, Topside offers lighter than they were yesterday and the market sees limited interest in the 78 cent areas with stronger offers likely to appear around the 0.7840-60 areas with stops appearing in that area for a two way battle, a push through that level will see stronger buyers pushing then for the weaker 79 cent areas and beyond. Downside bids light through the 77 cent areas and possible weak stops opening the market to the 0.7650 levels before the congestion takes over and stalls the move lower.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
NZ manufacturing activity falls in June after May high survey
CNY:
Fitch affirms China’s A+ rating with stable outlook
GBP:
May faces fight over Brexit law to end EU membership
USD:
US attorney general failed to report Russia meetings on security form
USD/GBP:
Class action from Arconic shareholder after Grenfell fire in the UK, after shares fell 21% after the fire
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Manufacturing Index Jun A 56.2 | P 58.5 | R 58.2
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May (F) A -3.60% | C -3.30% | P -3.30%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) May C 20.3B | P 19.6B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun C 0.10% | P -0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun C 1.70% | P 1.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Jun C 0.20% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Jun C 1.70% | P 1.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Jun C 0.20% | P -0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Jun C 0.20% | P -0.30%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Jun C 0.30% | P 0.00%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Jun C 76.80% | P 76.60%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Jul (P) C 95 | P 95.1
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories May C 0.30% | P -0.20%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Another day of Asian buying of the Euro with the market moving from the opening just above the 1.1400 level, trading quietly into the 11.430 levels in early Tokyo the market held through to the grey hour before pushing to its highs into the London session and holding for a period around the 1.1455 level, early German numbers were unchanged and in line with expectations possibly helping the market however, the move lower followed comments from Draghi who is expected to address future ECB Stimulus policy at Jackson hole (the grandeur of it) and the Euro dropped back through to the opening levels before slowing its decent, the move through towards the NYK opening saw the Euro firmly testing through the 1.1400 areas and touching down into the 1.1370 level before bouncing for the NYK opening, pushing back to the 1.1420 areas before gradually settling into an ever decreasing range to the close.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2885 levels the move through the Asian session saw a push just through the 1.2900 levels before holding around the level into the grey hour, strong EUR/GBP selling moved in and Cable quickly pushed to the 1.2920 levels to trigger weak stops and a run to the 1.2950 with talk of cross party deals to soften Brexit, a steady drift from the highs saw the market renew its challenge of the 1.2950 level into the NYK opening before repeating the drift and then eventually settling to a steady rise back towards the highs.
- JPY: Early buying into the Tokyo fix saw the market rise through to the 113.50 level before dropping quickly back through the opening around the 113.15 areas to eventually trigger some weak stops from early buyers, and the market testing down to the 112.85 level, the market ranged around the 113.00 levels through to the NYK session before starting a steady climb back towards the highs as the mixed tones continued from Fed officials. The market close was only slightly better than the opening after some decent volumes.
- AUD: A weaker USD saw the Oz slowly rising through the Asian session initially moving off the 0.7680 areas and grinding through to the grey hours pushing up towards the 77 cent areas, the move through into the London session saw the market breaking and the move through to the 0.7730 areas with limited stops being triggered, strong buying in the lead up to the NYK session saw the 0.7740 levels trade however, a strong trend line eventually saw the market pause on the move into the NYK session and never really looked strong enough from then through to the close holding the 0.7730 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Jun A 7% | C 15% | P 17%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Jun A 42.8B | C 43.2B | P 40.8B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Jun A 394B | C 273B | P 282B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Jul A 4.40% | P 3.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jun (F) A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jun (F) A 1.60% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Jun A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P -0.30%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jun A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M May A 0.70% | C 0.20% | P 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jun A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jun A 2.00% | C 1.90% | P 2.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jun A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jun A 1.90% | C 2.00% | P 2.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 08) A 247K | C 245K | P 248K | R 250K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Chair Yellen Testifies Before Senate Banking Panel
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A | C | P 72
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Jun A | C -16.2B | P -88.4B
Good Luck,
Andy
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