Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.643 | EURUSD 1.17348 | AUDUSD 0.78199 | NZDUSD 0.72387 | USDCAD 1.27572 | USDCHF 0.97264 | GBPUSD 1.28685 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17457 | 1.17288
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.774 | 110.547
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28743 | 1.28598
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97336 | 0.97221
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78379 | 0.78169
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27700 | 1.27466
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72375 | 0.72235
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14259 | 1.14116
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91283 | 0.91175
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30008 | 1.29746
For today
- EUR: We thought Asia was quiet yesterday, today is worse with the market trading around the 1.1740 levels for the most part with limited upside tests and only briefly testing the 1.1730 area on the downside. Topside offers light through to the 1.1760 areas with limited offers likely to continue through to the 1.1780, possibly a little stronger into the 1.1800 areas with weak stops on a move through the 1.1810-20 areas but movement largely depends on the GDP figures, with congestive offers likely to absorb the weak stops and stronger into the 1.1850 area. Downside bids light through to the 1.1690-80 areas with likely stops on a move through that level quickly being absorbed by bids moving in from the 1.1660 level through to the 1.1640 area before clear opening for a stronger move through the 1.1600 light bids.
- GBP: Yesterdays inflationary news saw the Cable drop however, the Asian session saw little follow through in the Asian session with the market trading in the 1.2860-70 level for the most part, Topside offers through the 1.2900 level are likely to be lighter with the market possibly seeing very little until the 1.2960 areas and limited congestion and the 1.3000 level opening for another test, a push beyond the 1.3020 areas could see some stronger buying materialize however, while there is little to stop a decent move higher, downside bids into the 1.2850 level are likely to be the better bids for the moment, a push through sees limited congestion to hold the market with some decent bids likely to the 1.2800 areas, with stronger bids possibly through the level to 1.2760 before a larger opening appears.
- JPY: Very quiet for the JPY today with the USDJPY unable to push through the 110.80 level and holding around the 110.70 areas for the bulk of the session with one minor push at the 110.55 technical level, Downside bids light into the 110.55 with possible weak stops on a test through the 110.40 level however, once the market pushes to the 110.20 level bids are likely to be limited and the market has the potential to fall back to the 109.60 areas with stronger bids in those levels. Topside offers into the 110.80 level remain and only a push through the 111.00 areas will trigger weak stops for a move into congestive offers through to the 111.50 area and increasing offers then to the 111.80 areas.
- AUD: A slow rise from the opening around the 0.7820 level to test towards the 0.7840 areas before ranging around the 0.7830 level into the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be limited with a push through the 0.7850 areas likely to see light stops appearing and the market opening to the 0.7880 areas before stronger offers appear, downside bids into the 0.7810-00 areas and possibly through the level weak stops below the 0.7770 areas will likely see the market testing quickly towards the 77 cent areas before better bids start to appear.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
US open to talk if N. Korea ready to disarm
US household debt breaks pre-crises record NYK Fed
Kaplan repeats appropriate to be patient on timing of next hike
Kaplan this process operates with lag, pressure are building
EUR:
ECB’s QE questioned by German Judges asking for EU review
GBP:
Interest rate hike in doubt as falling petrol prices keep inflation under control
CNY:
China local govt. debt in some areas exceeds warning levels
China reclaims place as top foreign holder of US treasuries
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Jul A 0.10% | P -0.10% | R -0.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q2 A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50% | R 0.60%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) C 0.40% | P 0.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Jul P 6.0K
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Jul P 2.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Jun C 1.80% | P 1.80%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Jun C 4.50% | P 4.50%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) C 0.60% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jun P 29.46B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jul C 1.22M | P 1.22M
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jul C 1.25M | P 1.25M
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -6.5M
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Meeting Minutes Jul
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet Asian session saw the market push lightly higher from the opening to the 1.1790 level before drifting back to the 1.1780 levels into the grey hour, the early London sellers moved in with German GDP showing a small slip balanced by the revision for the previous month initially struggling with the 1.1760 levels before seeing weak stops testing to the 1.1720 levels before recovering back to the 1.1760 level, the market drifted a little through to the NYK session with broadly better figures helping the USD to move higher and the Euro quickly dropping through the 1.1700 areas to test the 1.1690 level and a steady grind back to the 1.1740 before trading quietly through to the close.
- GBP: A very quiet session through Asia rising a little to test the 1.2970 areas repeatedly before moving through into the London session, UK inflationary data was a little mixed with the headline number showing above the consensus however, CPI numbers show that energy pricing is beginning to slip back a little and this resulted in the fall of the GBP trading steadily back to the 1.2870 areas triggering a few stops along the way before holding a little into the NYK session and dipping to the 1.2850 areas and then returning to trade around the 1.2860-70 levels through to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY ran from the opening lows around the 109.60 areas to trade through to the 110.20 areas in early Tokyo as the market ignored the GDP figures, the market struggled through to the London session before starting a slow rise through to test towards the 110.50 areas before moving into the NYK session and getting a limited lift from the US numbers to test through the 110.80 levels, once the highs were made the market drifted back a little to trade through to the London close holding around the 110.50 areas before slowly rising to the close just short of the highs.
- AUD: A slightly stronger USD over the course of the day didn’t detract from the unchanged commentary from the RBA minutes giving the Oz a lift to the 0.7875 areas before the rising USDJPY impacted the market and Oz slowly drifted lower into the grey hour to push into early London testing the 0.7840 technical line, the push through saw weak stops to test the 0.7825 areas before trading around the 0.7840 area through to the NYK session, US data saw the market drop quickly through to the 0.7810 level before holding and trading around the 0.7820 area to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Minutes Aug
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jun (F) A 2.20% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) A 0.60% | C 0.70% | P 0.60% | R 0.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Jul A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P -0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jul A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P -0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jul A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jul A 2.60% | C 2.70% | P 2.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Jul A 2.40% | C 2.50% | P 2.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Jul A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Jul A 3.60% | C 3.50% | P 3.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Jul A 0.00% | C 0.40% | P -0.40% | R -0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Jul A 6.50% | C 6.90% | P 9.90% | R 10.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Jul A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Jul A 3.20% | C 3.10% | P 3.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Jul A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Jul A 2.40% | C 2.50% | P 2.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Jun A 4.90% | C 4.30% | P 4.70% | R 5.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Jul A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Index Aug A 25.2 | C 10.3 | P 9.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Jul A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P -0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Jul A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P -0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Aug A 68 | C 64 | P 64
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Jun A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Jun A 34.4B | P 91.9B
Good Luck,
Andy
P.S. I will be away until the 13th August tempting trout in Eire, or not as the case maybe, or just some Guinness will do
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