Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.452 | EURUSD 1.18084 | AUDUSD 0.77776 | NZDUSD 0.70716 | USDCAD 1.25157 | USDCHF 0.97514 | GBPUSD 1.32029 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18279 | 1.17953
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.584 | 112.229
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32219 | 1.31908
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97674 | 0.97367
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78092 | 0.77772
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25211 | 1.24964
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70992 | 0.70697
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15295 | 1.1514
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89544 | 0.89394
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.902 | 132.703
For today
- EUR: The move into the Tokyo session saw the market rise through towards the 1.1830 areas before slipping slowly back to the 1.1800 level as the Catalan/Spain chatter the market moved through towards the grey hour running around the figure level, Topside light offers through to the 1.1860 areas then stronger as the market moves towards the 1.1900 level congestion through the level with possibly weak stops on a push above the 1.1920 areas and the market then facing lighter congestion to the 1.1950 level with offers building in that area and increasing on a move through to the 1.2000 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.1750 areas with some light bids in the area and then increasing through to the 1.1700 areas with those bids likely to continue through to a stronger 1.1660 areas.
- GBP: Early gains into the Tokyo session saw the market slipping back as the Euro slipped lower with the market testing through the 1.3200 levels to hold through to the grey hour around the 1.3190 levels. Topside offers into the current levels however, a strong push through the 1.3220 areas are likely to see some weak stops and the market seeing very little congestion through the 1.3250 areas and opening up a fresh challenge of the 1.3300 level with likely light offerings in the area and possibly an open run through to the 1.3350 areas. Downside bids light through the 1.3100 areas with limited stops on a move back through the area with stronger bids moving in around the 1.3050 areas and those bids likely to be in depth.
- JPY: USD struggled in early trading slipping slowly from the 112.40 areas through to test into the 112.20 level before holding for a brief period in the area, the market started to recover with several comments underpinning the USD and the USDJPY rising through to the 112.60 levels before running out of steam and drifting to the opening levels. Downside bids into the 112.20-00 areas light with weak stops likely on a push through the 111.80 level and the market lightly congested through to better bids into the 111.00 and through to the 110.50 areas with similar bids likely to run into the 111.00 areas.
- AUD: Cross buying in the AUD/JPY drove the early market with the Oz rising with the USDJPY pushing from the opening lows just above the 0.7775 areas and steadily pushing through the 78 cent level topping out just below the 0.7810 level before dropping back to the opening levels again and holding in a tight range through into the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 0.7750 level with some increasing bids likely on a move through the level before weak stops appear around the 0.7730 levels and weakness through to the 77 cents however, a push through here will likely see weakness increase as the market steps through to challenge the congestion in the 75-77 cent band. Topside offers through the 0.7820 areas with some light stops appearing and congestion through to the 0.7840 levels with no real sign of stops before above the 79 cent level.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
FED’s Kaplan says he has been very concerned that 10YNotes yield has fallen as Fed raised rates
FED’s Kaplan says he’s mindful that waiting too long to raise rates may leave FED behind curve, boosting chance of recession
FED’s Kaplan says he intends to keep an open mind on raising US interest rates at upcoming Fed meetings
US flies bombers over Korean peninsula with S. Korean, Japanese fighters
Trump meets advisers to discuss N. Korea options – statement
USD/MEX:
US businesses fear Nafta doomed; Mexico warns of consequences
EUR:
Spanish government says any dialogue with Catalonia must be within the law
GBP:
Hammond won’t budget now for a no-deal Brexit Times
NAFTA:
Talks to resume amid US-Canada aircraft dispute
HKD:
Hong Kong leader says to cut taxes, ease housing crunch in maiden policy address
NZD:
New Zealand’s Kingmaker reneges on election deadline of Thursday
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Oct A 3.60% | P 2.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Aug A 3.40% | C 1.00% | P 8.00%
06:00Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Sep (P) P 36.20%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â JOLTS Job Openings Aug C 6.06M | P 6.17M
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Meeting Minutes
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet opening with the market moving from the opening around the 1.1740 areas and then moving into the Tokyo session with fixing demand helping the market move through to the 1.1780 areas holding in the area through to the London session, news from Catalan suggested that talks would be the way forward and the market took solace in the news with the market eventually pushing through to the 1.1800 areas on a quick move and then ranging through into the NYK session before again pushing through the level to range around the 1.1810 levels with the high above the 1.1820 areas.
- GBP: Dipping initially the market traded quietly higher with the Euro with the market pushing to the 1.3170 areas before ranging into the London session around the 1.3160 areas, helped by a stronger retail sales monitor number the Cable eventually pushed to the release of the days production numbers with better figures than expected heling the market move up to the 1.3200 areas and a better NIESR GDP estimate in line but revised from the previous 0.1% higher, the market moved into the NYK session with the market pushing through the 1.3220 areas but unable to push through, the market slipped slowly lower through to the close but maintained the 1.3200 level through to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY held through the Asian session with the market opening around the 112.65 area before pushing to the 112.80 level on the fix and then fell back to the opening levels, the move through to the grey hour was quiet and only once the market moved into the London session did it break lower trading down to the 112.50 level on the first run, the market eventually pushed through the level on the second run and tested through to the 112.30 levels before holding through to the NYK session, with the market testing back to the 112.00 levels on weak stops before holding the level and rising steadily through to the close just below the 112.50 area.
- AUD: The Oz saw stronger Business confidence numbers and after a tepid start started moving from the opening 0.7755 level to push back through the 0.7775 line and holding around the 0.7780 levels through the day, with the market testing to the 0.7795 areas before dipping back to the 0.7775 level, and so it remained to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Sep A 1.90% | P 1.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Aug A 2.27T | C 1.98T | P 2.03T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Sep A 7 | P 5
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Sep A 51.3 | C 49.9 | P 49.7
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep A 3.10% | C 3.20% | P 3.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Aug A 21.6B | C 20.1B | P 19.5B | R 19.3B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Aug A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Aug A 1.60% | C 0.90% | P 0.40% | R 1.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Aug A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.50% | R 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug A 2.80% | C 1.90% | P 1.90% | R 2.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Aug A 0.60% | C 0.00% | P -0.90% | R -1.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Aug A -14.2B | C -11.2B | P -11.6B | R -12.8B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Sep A 0.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Sep A 217K | C 211K | P 223.2K | R 226K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Aug A -5.50% | C -0.90% | P -3.50%
Good Luck,
Andy
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