Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.194 | EURUSD 1.17961 | AUDUSD 0.78507 | NZDUSD 0.7177 | USDCAD 1.25186 | USDCHF 0.9755 | GBPUSD 1.32523 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18002 | 1.1775
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.305 | 112.038
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32687 | 1.32349
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97706 | 0.97574
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78604 | 0.7835
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25387 | 1.25138
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72162 | 0.71608
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15064 | 1.14992
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89046 | 0.88837
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.368 | 131.939
For today
- EUR: Dropping back from the opening highs around the 1.1800 level slipping into the Tokyo session around 1.1790 and then continuing the fall back to the 1.1775 areas before holding and drifting around the 1.1780 areas into the grey hour, congestive bids into the 1.1750 areas with possible weak stops on a move through the 1.1740 level however, 1.1720 is likely to be the start area for stronger bids with those bids likely to continue down through the level and into the 1.1660 in various sizes as you move along however, the market is likely to be strongest at that point with weak stops likely to appear on a move through the 1.1650 areas and the 1.1600 level becoming quickly vulnerable, topside offers light through to the 1.1850 areas with some congestion building into strong offers into the 1.1880 level through to the 1.1900 area, a push through that level will likely see weak stops appearing however, congestive offers are then likely to dominate the market through to the 1.1950 levels where possibly stronger offers are concentrate.
- GBP: Cable ranged around the 1.3250 levels with a slow drift through the 1.3240 areas before bouncing back off the lows if bounce is the correct term to push through to the 1.3265 areas and drifting between the 1.3250-60 area in slow trading. Topside offers light into the 1.3300 levels and a solid push through the 1.3320 area will likely see weak stops appearing with the 1.3380 areas becoming vulnerable and stronger offers likely through the level and increasing into the 1.3440 area. Downside bids into the 1.3200 area likely to be light however, a push through the level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market open to a quick move back to the 1.3100 level and slightly better bids beginning in the areas with those bids possibly increasing through to the 1.3050 level were weak stops and congestion appear.
- JPY: USDJPY made some limited early gains pushing through to the 112.30 levels in early Tokyo before drifting back through the opening to test to the 112.05 level and base there for a couple of hours before recovering to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours. Topside offers likely to be congestive on a move through the 112.00 areas stronger offers likely to be through the 112.50 areas with stronger offers likely to increase on a move to the 113.00 areas again, and stronger offers again then on a move towards the 113.50 levels. Downside bids into the 111.80 areas remain and further bids likely on a move towards the 111.50 areas with weak stops possibly through the level and the 111.00 likely to be very vulnerable to a test, stronger bids into the 110.50 areas with weak stops if that were to break.
- AUD: A very lacklustre day with even the RBA minutes meeting limited reaction, the market saw some meagre gains on the move towards the Tokyo session testing to the 0.7860 levels before dropping back to trade slowly through to the 0.7840 level into the Tokyo session, the release of the minutes had limited affect and the market held for the most part around the 0.7835-40 areas through until the last couple of hours and a return to that opening 0.7850 area. strong offers into the 79 cent level with congestion through the level and the market likely to struggle through the level with limited stops and the market likely to see stronger offers the closer it moves to the 80 cent areas. Downside bids congestive through the 0.7850 levels however, the sudden move higher will need time for the market to fill and better bids into the 78 cent with weak stops likely through the level.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Trumps confident he has enough votes for tax reforms
AUD:
RBA: Global rate rises have no mechanical implications for RBA
RBA: Local, global economic conditions more positive since 2016
RBA: sees slightly above average jobs growth for rest of 2017
ANZ consumer confidence index falls to 112.4 vs. 113.80
RBA A/Gov. Ellis says starting to see spill over effect from public infrastructure spending onto non mining private sector
RBA: A/Gov. Ellis expect retail electricity prices will add to CPI in coming quarters.
EUR:
Germany drafts outline of EU-UK ties post Brexit, paper shows
While not official the document does call for a comprehensive free trade accord
Moody’s Negative outlook on Italy’s banking system reflects continued fragility of balance sheets
SGD:
Singapore exports slump in Sep on downturn in Electronics
KRW:
- Korea warns that nuclear war could break out any moment
NZD:
Winston Peters says no decision yet on NZ government stuff
PLN:
Poland had budget surplus 4.9B PLN for Sep
ZAR:
- Africa’s Mminele can’t allow for complacency to creep in
SARB says CPI expectations uncomfortably close to top of range
SARB’s Mminele says bank facing elevated level of uncertainty
SARB MPC feels need to assess balance of risks at every meeting
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q3 A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Meeting Minutes Oct
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Sep C 0.30% | P 0.60%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep C 3.00% | P 2.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Sep C 2.70% | P 2.70%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Sep C 0.30% | P 0.70%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Sep C 4.00% | P 3.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Sep C 1.20% | P 1.60%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Sep C 8.20% | P 7.60%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Sep C 3.30% | P 3.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Sep C 0.10% | P 0.20%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Sep C 2.60% | P 2.50%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Aug C 5.40% | P 5.10%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Sep C 0.40% | P 0.30%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Sep (F) C 1.50% | P 1.50%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Sep (F) C 1.10% | P 1.10%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Oct C 20 | P 17
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Oct C 88.5 | P 87.9
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Oct C 34.2 | P 31.7
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Sep C 0.60% | P 0.60%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Sep C 0.20% | P -0.90%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Sep C 76.20% | P 76.10%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Oct C 64 | P 64
20:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows (USD) Aug C 14.3B | P 1.3B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A limited news day with the market slipping from the opening around the 1.1820 levels and the high for the day, Tokyo took the market to the 1.1800 areas and held through to the London session around the 1.1805 areas, grey hour selling saw the market slipping down to the 1.1780 areas as it moved into the London session and then held around the 1.1790 level through the early part of London after some limited improvement in numbers and German inflationary numbers becoming more of a concern, with US CPI numbers still hanging over the market the Euro pushed back to the 1.1815 areas to hold a range through the NYK session to the close in London, the run to the close saw the market testing back again and as I said at the beginning very limited news and the market finishing below the 1.1800 areas.
- GBP: Opening towards the highs for the day the market dropped back into the Tokyo session to around the 1.3270 levels before holding and returning to the 1.3290 level to trade around the level through to the London session. London pushed back to the highs testing back through the 1.3310 areas and holding through to the NYK session around the 1.3300 level, the Cable dropped back on the release of a strong empire number with the market holding the 1.3250 levels, a quiet run to the 1.3290 area before dropping back again to push to the lows around the 1.3230 areas before returning slowly to the 1.3250 level for the close.
- JPY: The USDJPY saw limited gains from the opening pushing through the 112.00 level into the Tokyo session and holding for a few hours around the figure level before heading towards the grey hour slowly testing back to the opening levels, early London sold the market down to the 111.65 areas before finding sufficient bids to hold the market through to deep into the NYK session with a range between the 111.65-85 levels, the move through to the end of the session saw the USDJPY lifting from the lows pushing through the 111.85 areas and triggering weak stops and a run to the 112.30 level before settling a little to the close.
- AUD: A steady slide lower through the day with very little news to help the market Oz opened towards the highs around the 0.7885 level, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market testing a little higher but unable to push through the 0.7890 areas before dropping back to the 0.7870 level and basing through to the London session, light buying saw the market running towards the highs again but unable to push through and starting a slow drift through to the close of business attempting to hold the 0.7850 areas with a limited test through to the 0.7840 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Rightmove House Prices M/M Oct A 1.10% | P -1.20%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep A 1.60% | C 1.60% | P 1.80%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Sep A 6.90% | C 6.40% | P 6.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Aug (F) A 2.00% | C 2.10% | P 2.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German WPI M/M Sep A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Aug A 21.6B | C 20.2B | P 18.6B | R 17.9B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Aug A 9.85B | C 20.05B | P 23.95B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Index Oct A 30.2 | C 20.7 | P 24.4
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BOC Business Outlook Survey
Good Luck,
Andy
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