Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.20 | EURUSD 1.17662 | AUDUSD 0.78451 | NZDUSD 0.71682 | USDCAD 1.2522 | USDCHF 0.97838 | GBPUSD 1.31885 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17807 | 1.17624
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.265 | 112.139
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31981 | 1.31833
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97899 | 0.97748
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78587 | 0.78414
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25257 | 1.24877
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71781 | 0.71529
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.51146 | 1.15097
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89270 | 0.89193
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.175 | 131.959
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with the Euro rising from the opening into the Tokyo session to test the 1.1780 areas before drifting through the remainder and into the grey hour holding the 1.1765 areas, downside congestion through the 1.1750 areas with stronger bids likely to move into the market, a move through to the 1.1660 areas is likely to be congestive with strong bids in that area before weak stops appear and the downside opens to the 1.1500 areas. Topside offers light through the 1.1800 with weak stops possibly through the level opening a move through to the weaker1.1850 levels with possibly stronger offers likely to appear into the 1.1880 areas.
- GBP: As with the Euro the Cable inched off the 1.3190 opening level to push towards the 1.3200 areas however, it was unable to push through the level and then held for the bulk of the session in a narrow range before drifting slowly through into the mid 1.3180’s, congestion to the downside with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.3150 areas however, a move through the level will likely see the bids increasing into the 1.3100 areas and through to the stronger 1.3050 areas. Topside offers weak through the 1.3200 levels with some offers likely into the 1.3220 level and weak stops through that level and the move through to the 1.3300 areas likely to be congestive but limited at best.
- JPY: Opening around the 112.20 areas the market moved slowly through into the Tokyo session with the range increasing but only marginally basing on the 112.15 areas with limited attempts to the 112.25 areas into the grey hour. Downside bids through to the 111.50 areas are likely to be congestive however; stronger bids are likely to move in on a test through the level and into the 111.00 areas with any test through that level likely to find stronger bids on a move towards the 110.50 level with stronger stops likely on a break through the level. Topside offers congestive through the 112.50 areas and increasing in size the closer you move to the 113.00 levels with offers likely to continue through to the 113.25 areas, a push through the level could see weak stops appearing however, we have been there before with the market struggling to the 113.40 areas before stronger offers stopped the move.
- AUD: Moving from the opening around the 0.7845 levels the market tested through to the 0.7855 areas after drifting into Tokyo however, the highs were limited and the market dropped eventually back to the opening levels in quiet trading. Topside offers into the 79 cent levels are likely to be reasonably strong with weak stops on a push through however, strong congestive offers are likely to appear around the 0.7940-60 areas and slow any progress towards the stronger 80 cent levels, Downside bids light congestion back through the 78 cent level with stronger bids likely to again begin around the 0.7775 areas and through to the 0.7750 level, a dip below could see weak stops appearing however, a push towards 77 cent is likely to see stronger bids altogether.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NAFTA:
Ministers say talks will extend past end 2017 deadline
Ministers reaffirm goal to reach deal in reasonable time
Ministers say more rounds to be scheduled through Q1 2018
Ministers Extend period between round 4 and round 5
Ministers say Mexico to host round 5 November 17-21
Negotiators say they successfully completed round 4
Ministers say new proposals have created challenges, gaps
Ministers cite progress on customs, digital trade, and others
Lighthizer: Hopeful we can have successful conclusion
Lighthizer: Mexico, Canada have refused to improve NAFTA text
Lighthizer: Surprised and disappointed by NAFTA partners
Lighthizer: No indication partners willing to rebalance trade
Lighthizer: NAFTA has become lopsided, must be rebalanced
Lighthizer: Trump has been clear about NAFTA causing trade gap
Guajardo: Mexico doesn’t want to end NAFTA p[rocess empty handed
Guajardo: We can enhance telecom, energy intergration
Guajardo: Mexico has limits to what it can accept in NAFTA
Guajardo: We must understand that we all have limits’
Guajardo: Mexico will keep seeking creative NAFTA solutions
Guajardo: Economy minister speaks after NAFTA talks
Guajardo: We have a lot of work to do to move NAFTA ahead
Freeland: Can’t undermine NAFTA instead of modernizing it
Freeland: Enforceable dispute settlement system essential
Freeland: we’ve seen series of unconventional NAFTA proposals
Canada’s Freeland says theis partnership is working
Freeland NAFTA has been good for millions in all 3 nations
Freeland Important for us to acknowledge where there are big differences between NAFTA partners
USD:
Trump administration again declines to name China currency manipulator RTRS
US treasury says China, Germany, Japan, S. Korea and Switzerland remain on monitoring list of major trading partners that merit close attention to currency practices; Taiwan removed from list
Wall st is said poised to get key SEC reprieve over MiFiD
Hillary Clinton says US threats of war with N. Korea dangerous, short sighted
GBP:
Media focus on Inflation caused by Brexit rather than loose money continuing
Britain would not recognise Catalonia independence PM
CNY/USD:
China’s US treasury holdings rose in August to highest in year
CNY:
Xi warns of severe challenges for China as party congress opens
NZD:
NZ first says will make announcement on Government Thursday
EUR:
France arrests 10 over suspected plot targeting politicians
EU’s Tusk proposes two year reform blitz
Greece, in recession again last year, eyes recovery 2017-18
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Sep A 0.10% | P -0.08%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Sep C 3.2K | P -2.8K
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Sep P 2.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Aug C 4.30% | P 4.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Aug C 2.10% | P 2.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Aug C -0.30% | P -2.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Sep C 1.18M | P 1.18M
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Sep C 1.25M | P 1.27M
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -2.7M
18:00    USD      Federal Reserve Beige Book                                    Â
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: As jokes abound about the UK the Euro found itself under some limited pressure with the market dropping away from the opening 1.1800 levels, the early Tokyo session saw the market dip to the 1.1775 areas and held through to the grey hours, the market saw early selling through into the London session with the market testing to the 1.1755 areas and the markets range was a little wider however, the market took its time pushing through to the NYK session holding the 1.1750 areas, NYK sold the market to the 1.1735 level and bounced off the level with stronger IP numbers from the US, the market bounced off the lows and held for a few hours through to the end of the 1.1750 areas, NAFTA negotiations saw the USD weaken a little and the market ran to the 1.1770 levels for a quiet run to the close.
- GBP: A steady early start to the session with the Asian session holding around the 1.3250 levels before moving into the London session ranging just over 20 pips before starting a slow push through to the 1.3280 areas as the market reacted to the inflation numbers however, while the kneejerk reaction was to buy the market revaluated through the session and the move back through the 1.3250 level saw weak stops triggered as the market dropped quickly through to the 1.3200 areas with the market slowing a little as it move into the NYK session, the market continued to drift a little on the release of the US numbers testing through to the 1.3150 levels before reversing the final moves and pushing through to trade the balance of the session ranging in the 1.3180-90 areas in a dull close.
- JPY: A very quiet session for the USDJPY with the market opening around the 112.20 areas and rising in early trading through to the 112.30 areas before dropping back to make the lows into the 112.05 levels, the market based along the area for awhile before starting a slow move back to the opening levels and holding through to the NYK session and rallying to make the highs of the day into the 112.45 levels, the market held the level for a short period before drifting to the close and the opening levels.
- AUD: Limited range for the Oz and although the market saw the RBA minutes the reaction was missing and the Oz traded through the Asian session testing to the 0.7860 levels in early trading before slipping and basing around the 0.7840 areas before returning to the opening levels into the grey hours, grey hour selling saw the lows again tested quickly before rising off the low to test the high again just above the 0.7860 level, once the early gyration was over with the market drifted slowly back through into the NYK session and pushing through to the 0.7820 areas before finding some support and a slow return through to the close and a finish not too far off the open.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q3 A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Meeting Minutes Oct
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Sep A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep A 3.00% | C 3.00% | P 2.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Sep A 2.70% | C 2.70% | P 2.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Sep A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Sep A 3.90% | C 4.00% | P 3.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Sep A 0.40% | C 1.20% | P 1.60% | R 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Sep A 8.40% | C 8.20% | P 7.60% | R 8.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Sep A 3.30% | C 3.30% | P 3.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Sep A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Sep A 2.50% | C 2.60% | P 2.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Aug A 5.00% | C 5.40% | P 5.10% | R 4.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Sep A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Sep (F) A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Sep (F) A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Oct A 17.6 | C 20 | P 17
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Oct A 87 | C 88.5 | P 87.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Oct A 26.7 | C 34.2 | P 31.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Sep A 0.70% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Sep A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P -0.90% | R -0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Sep A 76.00% | C 76.20% | P 76.10% | R 75.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Oct A 68 | C 64 | P 64
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows (USD) Aug A 67.2B | C 14.3B | P 1.3B
Good Luck,
Andy
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