Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.931 | EURUSD 1.1787 | AUDUSD 0.78462 | NZDUSD 0.71449 | USDCAD 1.24676 | USDCHF 0.98164 | GBPUSD 1.32049 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18170 | 1.17925
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.095 | 112.878
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32291 | 1.32014
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98150 | 0.97902
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78722 | 0.78411
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24750 | 1.24518
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71720 | 0.7082
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15753 | 1.15618
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89390 | 0.89253
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.432 | 133.217
For today
- EUR: Early trading saw the market moving from the 1.1790 levels to test through to the 1.1815 areas before running out of the Tokyo fix impetus and drifting back to hold around the 1.1800 levels for the run to the grey hour, Topside limited offers through the 1.1820 areas with stronger congestive offers into the 1.1840-60 areas, a push through will likely see increasing offers into the 1.1880-1.1900 areas with a push through the 1.1920 level possibly seeing some weak stops and the market quickly moving towards the 1.1950 areas before stronger offers start to appear on any attempt to push through to the 1.2000 levels. Downside bids likely to be weak until the market pushes towards the 1.1750 areas with some congestive bids around that level and then possibly a small gap of weakness before the bids reappear as the market probes the 1.1700 level, through the level the market is likely to see further bids appearing however, they are likely to be patchy through to the 1.1670 areas and stronger supportive bids start to appear, a break through to the 1.1640 areas will leave the downside vulnerable to further tests with the 1.1600 areas more sentimental than anything else.
- GBP: The early run in USD selling saw the Cable run towards the 1.3230 areas before dropping back to range quietly just above the 1.3200 opening levels, Downside bids light into the 1.3150 levels and then likely to get stronger on any push through the level and towards the 1.3100 areas for the moment a push through that level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market then focused on the stronger 1.3050 level with bids likely to be stacked there with impressions of pending rate rises, this to me is a balancing act with the BoE balancing the inflationary worries against the slowing economy based on the Brexit effect however, it’s a decision that is likely to cause at least a split in the MPC beyond what we’ve seen. Topside offers light through to the 1.3250 levels with stronger offers likely into the 1.3300-20 areas, with weak stops beyond the level the market could see a run to the 1.3400 level with only sentimental interest around the 1.3350 areas and stronger offers then appearing on a test to the 1.3400.
- JPY: USDJPY made early moves towards the 113.10 areas however, USD supply into the fix was enough to run the market lower and into the 112.90 for the run to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 113.30 areas with likely weak stops on a move through the level and the market then focused on the 114.00 areas with good offers likely in the lead up through the 113.70 and increasing into the 114.00 levels and then the market opens up to test the double top areas from May and July through the 114.50 level with expected stronger offers still however, with the technical move comes the tight stops and a failure at the level could possibly see the market drop back quickly. Downside bids light through to the 112.00- 20 areas with some light congestion along the way, a push through to the 111.80 areas will likely see weak stops and the market opening for a move through to the 111.00 areas however, congestion through the 111.50 could slow any movement into that stronger level with further strong bids on a move through the figure and towards the 110.50 areas.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7845 levels the market slowly moved into the Tokyo session drift a touch through to the 0.7840 areas before the release of the employment numbers another good set and the Oz quickly pushed through to the 0.7870 areas before running into some offers and turning lower, CNY numbers and in particular the GDP figure was in line with expectations and the Oz seemed to be a little disappointed and dropped back to the 0.7850 areas to trade around that level into the grey hour. Downside bids into the 0.7775 level will likely provide limited support with the 78 cent level out of the way though the market is likely to find the push lower a little bit of a struggle with the market seeing old trend lines and congestive areas through to the 77 cent level with possibly stronger bids making a show, Topside offers above the 0.7880 areas and into 79 cent with the market likely to be more congestive than pure resistance, a push through the level will likely see some limited stops and the market open for another attempt through to the 80 cent and stronger offers just above.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
FED: Growing use of sign on bonuses to attract workers seen
FED: Labour scarcity to be exacerbated by storm recovery efforts
FED: Some districts saw stronger wage pressure in certain sectors
FED: Labour shortages restraining growth in affected sectors
FED: employment growth modest, labour market widely seen as tight
FED: Retail spending rose slowly, car sales, tourism increased
FED: wage pressures modes to moderate despite tight labour market
FED: Price pressure remained modest, cost pass through limited
NAFTA:
NAFTA Nations said likely to adopt non-binding currency pledge
EUR:
German court threatens QE as plans die for Euro fiscal union
CNY:
China has halted intervention in yuan exchange rate market
AUD:
Australia spy chief warns of growing foreign meddling
Australian senate rejects proposed visa, citizenship curbs
JPY:
Japan Sep exports rise 14.1% yoy MoF
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance JPY Sep A 0.24T | C 0.32T | P 0.37T | R 0.31T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q3 A 7 | P 7 | R 8
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Sep A 19.8K | C 15.0K | P 54.2K | R 53.0K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep A 5.50% | C 5.60% | P 5.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q3 A 6.80% | C 6.80% | P 6.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Sep A 10.30% | C 10.20% | P 10.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Sep A 7.50% | C 7.70% | P 7.80%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Sep A 6.60% | C 6.40% | P 6.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Aug A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.10%
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Sep C 2.47B | P 2.17B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Sep C -0.10% | P 1.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 14) C 240K | P 243K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Oct C 22 | P 23.8
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Sep C 0.10% | P 0.40%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 87BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet Asian session saw the market opening around the 1.1765 areas and pushing through to the 1.1780 level into the Tokyo session before settling back to move into the grey hour around the opening level, a minor dip into the London opening saw the market pressing lower again once the UK employment numbers were out of the way with some strong selling initially pushing the Euro’s to the low just above the 1.1730 level before starting a steady rally through the day, a tight channelled rally pushed the Euro steadily back higher and pushed to the 1.1800 areas as the USD faced mixed reactions through the day and finishing just off those highs.
- GBP: Cable initially moved slowly through the early part of the Asian session pushing from the opening levels around the 1.3190 levels but unable to test the 1.3200 areas, the move to the grey hour saw the market sagging lower with the market testing through the 1.3180 level, London opening saw little help and the market testing to the 1.3160 areas before starting a slow move back to the opening levels and into the employment numbers, in line employment but a rise in weekly earnings would suggest an increase in pressure to raise rates and the market initially reacted to this with a spike to the 1.3210 areas before quickly dropping back again, the market bottomed out around the 1.3140 levels and based along that line through into the NYK session before starting another steady rise higher pushing to a close above the 1.3200 levels.
- JPY: The market moved quietly through the early part of the session trading around the 112.20 areas before moving into the grey hour testing steadily higher through the run through London and into the NYK session pushing the 112.80 areas, the market did test through the 113.00 level eventually however, it was unable to hold the level and drifted back to trade around the 112.90 levels through to the close.
- AUD: All in all a nothing day for the Oz with the market making brief moves through the 0.7850 areas to test towards the 0.7860 level in Tokyo however, the markets move into the London session saw the market dropping back to make the lows just below the 0.7820 areas and a slow hold through to the end of the London session ranging in the 0.7825-40 areas the market eventually pushed through the 0.7840 area and moved back to the opening levels for a long run in a tight range to the end of the day.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Sep A 0.10% | P -0.08%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Sep A 1.7K | C 3.2K | P -2.8K | R -0.2K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Sep A 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Aug A 4.30% | C 4.30% | P 4.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Aug A 2.20% | C 2.10% | P 2.10% | R 2.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Aug A 1.60% | C -0.30% | P -2.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Sep A 1.13M | C 1.18M | P 1.18M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Sep A 1.22M | C 1.25M | P 1.27M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -5.7M | C -3.25M | P -2.7M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Reserve Beige Book
Good Luck,
Andy
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