Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.638 | EURUSD 1.16457 | AUDUSD 0.76558 | NZDUSD 0.68411 | USDCAD 1.28889 | USDCHF 0.99767 | GBPUSD 1.32834 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16551 | 1.16254
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.961 | 113.616
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32937 | 1.32668
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99982 | 0.99715
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76685 | 0.76485
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29071 | 1.28874
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69147 | 0.68828
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16310 | 1.16154
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87699 | 0.87598
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.602 | 132.369
For today
- EUR: Another fairly quiet day with the Euro moving into the Tokyo session dipping back towards the 1.1630 level having made early highs just short of the 1.1655 areas with the market drifting around the lows through to the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.1700 areas likely to be light however, with FOMC today the market is likely to be subdued to that point, continuing Spain chatter is likely to keep the market bubbling with the Catalonian leader now in Brussels for some reason the market is nervy about a call to the street for independence, with those in mind a push through 1.1700 will likely see some weak stops appearing and a move up to the more congested 1.1750 levels with offers likely to continue to the stronger 1.1800 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.1600 areas and then bids start to increase in size continuing through the level with possibly stronger bids into the 1.1580 areas with a push through likely to see stops appearing on a test of the 1.1560-40 areas and the market opening to a deeper move and possible challenge of the 1.1480 area.
- GBP: Cable moved to the 1.3290 areas in early trading into the Tokyo session before starting a steady drift lower with some limited profit taking coming into the market, the market eventually based along the 1.3270 area for a long proportion of the Tokyo session with very little in the market, Topside offers remain into the 1.3300 areas with a push through the 1.3310 areas likely to see some weak stops some light congestion is likely to absorb these weak stops however a test of the 1.3350 level will see the market able to push through to the 1.3400 with less trouble with stronger stops likely and the market likely to only struggle once beyond the figure and testing towards the 1.3440 areas. Downside bids light back through the 1.3200 areas with better bids then likely to appear on a test back through the 1.3150 level and stronger bids as the market tests the 1.3100 areas notwithstanding FOMC of course.
- JPY: A quiet start and once the market moved fully into the Tokyo session started to move off the opening 113.65 area to test through to the 113.90 area in two steps the market then held through the remainder of the session around the 113.85 areas, and only once it moved into the grey hour did it dip quickly back as sellers back from lunch took advantage of the highs. Topside offer into the 114.00 area likely to be light however, once through the market is likely to see stronger offers the closer the market moves towards the highs from last week, a strong test through the 11450-60 level will likely see stronger stops appearing and the market opening to the 115.00 level and possible profit taking appearing after that. Downside bids light through the congestive 113.50 areas and the market open to a test through to the 113.00 level, and a congestive run through to the stronger 112.00 level.
- AUD: Some light buying through the Asian session saw the market lift off the early lows around the 0.7650 area to gently push through to the 0.7670 after a few attempts in a very dull session, Light offers to the topside around the 77 cent areas with a limited increase from that point with concerns of lower inflation appearing the market remains weak technically and the push through the 77 cent level will possibly see stronger offers through into the 0.7730 and 0.7775 levels and likely to slow the market into the stronger 78 cent levels and possibly stronger stops beyond. Downside bids light through to the 0.7640 level with possible repeat into the 0.7620 area with the second round of buy likely to continue through the 0.7580 level before stops start to appear in more numbers
Overnight News                                                                 Â
CAD:
Former BoC Governor says Poloz caution a mistake Canada Eco watch
GBP:
Theresa May’s Brexit strategy hits a legal minefield Times
USD:
US house tax bill release to be delayed until Thursday sources
US house ways and means committee Chairman Brady says will release tax bill on Thursday
NZD:
NZ: Jobs, wages not enough to ensure Tax rate hikes
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Q3 A 4.60% | C 4.70% | P 4.80%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Q/Q Q3 A 2.20% | C 0.80% | P -0.20% | R -0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Oct A -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct (F) A 52.8 | C 52.5 | P 52.5
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Oct A 51 | C 51 | P 51
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct C 61.4 | P 61.7
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct C 55.9 | P 55.9
12:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Oct C 200K | P 135K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Oct P 55
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) C 54.5 | P 54.5
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Oct C 59.4 | P 60.8
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Oct C 67.3 | P 71.5
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Sep C -0.20% | P 0.50%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 0.9M
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision C 1.25% | P 1.25%
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Very limited day overall, the market rose from the opening attesting above the 1.1650 levels before USD buying moving in around the Tokyo fix and the market slipped through to midsession testing to the 1.1625 areas, the market recovered into the London session and then ranged in a 1.1625-50 through to the NYK session, the move towards the option expiry in NYK saw the market pushing through to the 1.1660 levels and then ranging around the 1.1650 levels to the close.
- GBP: A tight range through the first half of the day with the market dipping in Asia through the 1.3200 levels in a limited move before rising and then generally ranging through to the London session holding the 1.3200-20 areas before moving into the NYK session rising quickly to push to the 1.3250 and pausing into the option cut in NYK before breaking higher again to test to the 1.3280 levels and a struggle through to the close ranging in the 1.3280-90 levels.
- JPY: As with everything else a quiet Asian session saw the USDJPY ranging quietly unable to push through the 113.30 levels and broadly holding the 113.00 level through into the London session, a push through the highs saw early London taking the market steadily through to the 113.40 levels and the move into the NYK session testing the 113.50 level, the move through to the close in London saw the final push for the day with the market pushing through to the 113.70 areas and then a slow range between 113.60-70 through to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7685 areas the market managed a weak push to the 0.7695 areas before falling back into the Tokyo session and a slow drift to the 0.7675 areas towards the run to London, London were steady buyers however, the early gains were quickly lost and the market moved from the 0.7690 area in a tight channel to the 0.7640 before stopping and holding through into the end of London, the market recovered a little from the lows testing to the 0.7670 areas before settling into a tight range around the 0.7655 areas through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Sep A -2.30% | P 10.20% | R 5.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep A 2.80% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Sep A -0.30% | C 0.70% | P 0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Sep (P) A -1.10% | C -1.60% | P 2.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Oct A -10 |C -10 | P -9
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Oct A 51.6 | C 52.1 | P 52.4
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Oct A 54.3 | P 55.4
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Policy Balance Rate A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Sep A -2.90% | C -3.20% | P -2.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q3 (A) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50% | R 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Y/Y Q3 (A) A 2.20% | C 2.10% | P 1.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Sep A 8.90% | C 9.00% | P 9.10% | R 9.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 (A) A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.60% | R 0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Oct A 1.40% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Oct (A) A 0.90% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Aug A -0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Sep A -0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.30% | R 0.40%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Sep A -0.10% | C 0.40% | P 1.00% | R 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Cost Index Q3 A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/CS Composite-20 Y/Y Aug A 5.90% | C 5.90% | P 5.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Oct A 66.2 | C 60 | P 65.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Oct A 125.9 | C 121 | P 119.8
Good Luck,
Andy
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