Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.179 | EURUSD 1.16191 | AUDUSD 0.76762 | NZDUSD 0.68965 | USDCAD 1.2865 | USDCHF 1.00358 | GBPUSD 1.32455 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16685 | 1.16131
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.193 | 113.74
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32995 | 1.32442
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00339 | 0.99857
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77264 | 0.76733
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28757 | 1.2831
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69388 | 0.68835
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16595 | 1.16448
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87794 | 0.87671
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.848 | 132.578
For today
- EUR: It would seem that the market didn’t like the Powell news, the market dipped from the opening 1.1625 areas to the 1.1615 before starting a steady rise through into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 1.1670 before meeting resistance and dipping back to the 1.1650 level and then rising a little through to the 1.1660 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers increasing on a move through to the 1.1700 areas with limited stops and congestion through to possibly stronger offers into the 1.1750 areas and further congestion on a move towards the 1.1800 areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.1620 levels and then stronger bids on a dip through the 1.1580 areas with limited stops on a move through the level.
- GBP: Cable saw a similar reaction from the opening with the USD falling across the board with the market opening around the 1.3245 lows and pushing through into the Tokyo session trading higher through to the 1.3300 level before drifting back to hold the 1.3275-85 areas to the grey hour. Light bids on a move back through to the 1.3200 areas with possibly weak stops on a dip through the level however, some congestion then continues through to the 1.3150 levels and possibly slightly stronger bids into that sentimental level. Topside offer through the 1.3300 level with some limited stops on a move through the 1.3325 areas with possibly stronger offers into the 1.3350 level and limited congestion on a rally through to the 1.3400 level with an old trend line just beyond.
- JPY: USD weakness dominated the early part of the session with the market falling back from the opening level to test the 113.75 areas and then holding around the 113.90 levels for several hours, Topside offers through the 114.30 level with the market likely to find stronger offers increasing around the 114.50 areas, a break through the 114.60 level will likely see weak stops and a quick run towards the 115.00 areas and possibly light option barriers to curb the enthusiasm of the market however, a push through the level will likely see a stronger set of selling moving in around the 115.40-50 level. Downside bids light through the 113.50 areas with some congestion through to 113.00 a push through the 112.80 levels will likely see some congestion however, weak stops may force the market lower and once through the 112.50 area the market will find more space to test into the 112.00-111.90 levels and possible the pivotal point for the USDJPY.
- AUD: Running from the opening lows the Oz rose through the first few hours in the Tokyo session and pushed through the 77 cent levels and ranged through to the grey hour holding around the 0.7715 areas with a minor spike to the 0.7725 level. Topside offers through the 0.7730 level likely to slow the market a little before running into sentimental offers into the 0.7750 areas with limited congestion around the 0.7775 areas before the market weakens a little on a move through the 78 cent level with possible weak stops only on a strong push through the 0.7820 areas, downside bids light through the 0.7630 areas and then building into the 76 cent level, a strong break here will see weak stops and some medium term sellers appear in the market and the selling increase with the 75 cent becoming vulnerable however, the level is likely to be the strongest near term support and will need some strong news to push through.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Trump to select Fed’s Jerome Powell for FED chair
Tax bill is said to set 12% rate for companies’ offshore cash’
US Fed likely to raise rates in Dec amid more upbeat economic outlook – Analysts
CAD:
Poloz: Labour market slack could lead to inflation undershoot
Poloz: CAD gains this year were driven by rate expectations
KRW:
- Korea developing version of missile that could reach the US CNN
NZD:
Government plans to bar nearly all foreigners from buying existing homes
GBP:
Minister quits as sexual harassment scandal deepens
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Oct A 14.50% | C 15.70% | P 15.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Sep A 1.75B | C 1.20B | P 0.99B | R 0.87B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Sep A 1.50% | C -1.00% | P 0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Oct A 44.5 | C 43.6 | P 43.9
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Oct C 0 | P -3
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Real Y/Y Sep C 0.30% | P -0.20%
08:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Oct C 56.5 | P 56.3
08:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) C 56.7 | P 56.7
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Oct C -10K | P -23K
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims Rate Oct C 5.60% | P 5.60%
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) C 60.5 | P 60.5
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) C 58.6 | P 58.6
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Oct C 48.5 | P 48.1
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Oct P -27.00%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Bank Rate C 0.50% | P 0.30%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target C 435B | P 435B
12:00    GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 9–0—0 | P 2–0–7
12:00    GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Bank of England Inflation Report
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 28) C 235K | P 233K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Productivity Q3 (P) C 2.50% | P 1.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q3 (P) C 0.40% | P 0.20%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 64B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1645 levels the market moved a touch higher before dropping back into the Tokyo session to eventually drift around the 1.1630 levels through to the grey hour; early buying saw the market rising back to the opening levels and nudging through the opening levels and then pushing through the 1.1655 levels, before drifting back off again to hold through to the US numbers mixed numbers saw the Euro drop back to make the lows just above 1.1605 area before squeezing back to the 1.1635 levels and then ranging through to the close with the FOMC barely a blip in the market.
- GBP: A slow drift through the Asian session with the market pushing in early trading above the 1.3290 levels before drifting back to trade through to the grey hours holding the 1.3270 level, early grey hour buying took the market back to the opening levels and the move into the full London session saw the market continue to rise and push through to the 1.3310 level, the market traded around the level, making the highs just above the 1.3320 level and dipping back through to the 1.3285 area, the market eventually started to drift once it moved into the NYK session dropping through to the 1.3280 level and gyrated a little on the US numbers however, the market eventually settled back to the 1.3250 areas into late NYK and held in that area through to the close, and as with the rest of the market only minimal movement around the FOMC.
- JPY: Opening on its lows holding the 113.65 levels into the Tokyo session before lifting through to trade around the 113.90 areas through into the grey hour, the market dipped in early trading however, the London opening saw the market again pushing through to just below the 114.00 levels, a steady grind through to the grey hour saw the market pushing above the figure and the NYK opening saw the market rally9ing through to trigger weak stops around the 114.10 areas to top out around 114.25, the mixed numbers out of the way saw the market dropping quickly off the highs to hit the 113.90 areas and basing there for the most part through to the FOMC, a 40 pip range through the FOMC release and the market was again trading towards the highs for a finish above the 114.00 level.
- AUD: A very limited day for the Oz with the market dipping in the early market testing the 0.7650 areas before pushing quietly through towards the 0.7670 area and into the grey hour, London took the market to new highs eventually pushing through to the 0.7685 and then struggling through to the NYK session drifting back a little before moving off to make new highs around the 0.7695 area after the US numbers, the move through to the close saw the market running along the 0.7675 areas with minor movement around the FOMC.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Q3 A 4.60% | C 4.70% | P 4.80%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Q/Q Q3 A 2.20% | C 0.80% | P -0.20% | R -0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Oct A -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct (F) A 52.8 | C 52.5 | P 52.5
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Oct A 51 | C 51 | P 51
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct A 62 | C 61.4 | P 61.7
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct A 56.3 | C 55.9 | P 55.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Oct A 235K | C 200K | P 135K | R 110K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Oct A 54.3 | P 55
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) A 54.6 | C 54.5 | P 54.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Oct A 58.7 | C 59.4 | P 60.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Oct A 68.5 | C 67.3 | P 71.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Sep A 0.30% | C -0.20% | P 0.50% | R 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -2.4M | C -1.5M | P 0.9M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision A 1.25% | C 1.25% | P 1.25%
Good Luck,
Andy
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